Fun with Numbers (CSC)

[Brian & Kathy 0]

I made some statistics using the Immigration timelines here on VJ, concerning the CSC. There are a couple assumptions:

1. All petitions sent june or earlier are completely done or complete enough it won't effect the number of approvals from july onward.

2. They process applications in the exact order sent (as opposed to being out of order and by the date received).

3. They will continue approving at the current rate as measure during the last 2 weeks (~25 approvals/week).

I took a sample from April 30th to May 22, which included 110 people. All those filing in this range should have had at least an initial look, be it NOA2, an RFE or denial.

12 (11%) did not indicated NOA2 or an RFE yet. This means up to 11% of the timelines here on VJ are inactive either because the persons don't frequent VJ anymore or they have taken a different journey than that of the K1 visa. If 11% those represented on the timelines are inactive or will be inactive by the expected NOA2 date, then we can reduce the number of those who filed by 11%. Of the active timelines from this period, 7 indicated RFEs (7%). So 7% of filers may get an RFE.

There are 170 records for july, of those 60 have updated their timeline to show NOA2. Using the 11% rule, 12 of the 110 can be considered inactive before NOA2, resulting in 60 of 158 july petitions being approved thus far (98 'active' remain to be approved).

Right now, CSC seems to average about 25 NOA2s per week (23 last week and 26 the previous week). It will take about 4 weeks to approve the remainder of July (98/25 = 3.9 weeks).

We filed Sept 24th, so I estimated my aproval date using this method (and the assumptions above). There are a total of 177 petitions ahead of me (110 july remaining + 67 from august and part of sept), subtract 11% for 158 that will remain active. 158Petions/25PetitionPerWeek = 6.3 weeks. Add the better part of a week to account for holidays when they won't be working and I'm looking at 7 weeks, or Jan 25th. If you don't like my method of removing 11%, then call it Feb 1.

Now, caculate your own approval date! Just keep in mind, they don't keep everyone in perfect order so you may be approved earlier or later. This may help you get started:

July petitions awaiting approval: 110

August: 35

september: 44

October: 50

November: 22

NOTE: the number for November will likely grow as more people find VJ

[weedebz 0]

I always like a good number crunching session. Thanks for sharing.

[TBoneTX 43,290]

Impressive, but:

[1] Calculus is what dentists scrape off one's teeth.

I never made it past Algebra, which is the national language of Algeria.

[weedebz 0]

i like statistics. At school I didn't do well at maths....I was an art/engish lit person.

[mox 298]

You're a number-cruncher after my own heart!

If you're right, I should be doing the happy dance right around January 14th (or 22nd sans the 11%), even though my timeline shows Feb 20th. That moves me up 5 weeks...wow!

Thanks for that cool mental exercise. Nice to have some hope for an early approval.

[Brian & Kathy 0]

I've taken more math than I'd like to admit and not gotten a degree yet. Calc I, II and III were ok, but Differential Equations kicked my butt several times over. I guess my mind just doesn't bend that way...

Edited December 11, 2007 by Brian & Kathy

[mox 298]

Well of course you know that we're all going to hold you personally responsible if it doesn't work out.

[Jasman0717 8]

Impressive, but:

[1] Calculus is what dentists scrape off one's teeth.

I never made it past Algebra, which is the national language of Algeria.

[Brian & Kathy 0]

Some important things to remember about the timeline estimated approval date:

1. It is based on past performance... meaning if it takes and average of 140 days for a july filer to get approval, then it will take 140 days for you. That date doesn't consider that there were so many less submissions after july (about 3x less petitions after July compared to May, June and July). July people have had to wait nearly the longest because there were still a lot of submissions infront of them!

2. The average includes RFEs which hurt the average. For those who don't get RFEs, you will almost certainly be quicker.

You're a number-cruncher after my own heart!

If you're right, I should be doing the happy dance right around January 14th (or 22nd sans the 11%), even though my timeline shows Feb 20th. That moves me up 5 weeks...wow!

Thanks for that cool mental exercise. Nice to have some hope for an early approval.

[Brian & Kathy 0]

Gee, Thanks!

Well of course you know that we're all going to hold you personally responsible if it doesn't work out.

Hmm, Another comment for the estimated approval date as calculated by timelines. Your predicted dates will probably get worse as they'll spend another 4 weeks working on the last 2 weeks of submissions from july. Then, we'll be amazed how quickly they start moving. At 25 approvals per week, all of August would take just shy of a week and a half. All of september about 2 weeks and all of October another 2 weeks.

[TracyOz 0]

Thanks for that... I'm like you - LOVE the number crunching... and I love your estimates there - at that rate WE MIGHT just see our NOA-2 by the first week in February (ahhhh that would be like a massive sigh of relief for me)....

Just as an FYI (which might be handy for those in the future)

We filed on the 26th September

My current timeline date for approval (as at today) is the 4th March...

(would LOVE for that to be earlier - like by a month or so <grin>)

then I just have to find out how long it really takes to get from CSC to the NVC and then to Sydney.... I would love it if we could have a March interview (unlikely I know) but my fingers (and my wish to Santa) is for a mid-late April interview so that we can move over there early May to allow my kiddos to at least do a few weeks of school/interaction before the summer break.

have a GREAT day

Tracy

Edited December 11, 2007 by TracyOz

[SSAH 0]

How would a June filer calculate? The same way?

[Brian & Kathy 0]

I would highly encourage you to call up USCIS. You should have gotten NOA2 by now. You need to ask them where your petition is and what's taking so long. You didn't get a request for evidence?

If USCIS can't help you, it may be time to involve your senator.

Good luck!

Brian

How would a June filer calculate? The same way?

[melusine 5]

it gaves around the of 25 february for me... i still hope for valentine day

[Queen Jenn 0]

Well, I'm looking at mid-March for my approval. Which is about what I figured after my novice attempt at number crunching. March isn't bad - that would be approximately 4 months after filing. But then, maybe I'll get lucky (for once-I never win anything) and get the approval in February. One can always hope . . . .