Number of cases processed hit new high!

[JeanneAdil 6,289]

4 hours ago, IntrusiveThief said:

Nice. Do you know if there's a similar one for the I-130? 

The plan was that online petitions would speed the process

we use to have to send originals (paper file)

and include all pages of our passports 

that was the plan announced back in the spring of 2022

 

has it helped???? don't see it did

[madmanmike 191]

Our timeline guess from the website here just added another 6 days to our estimate. June ‘22 filer. Estimated date now 12 Sep ‘23. 

[Lynxyonok 316]

11 hours ago, AndiB said:

Talk of processing hitting 700-800 last week! I am unsure if the spreadsheet I follow includes RFEs as it's usually almost 100 out from totals I see elsewhere so we're either meeting incoming or close to! Either way we shouldn't be seeing jumps in wait times any more (maybe we'll get one more 0.5 increase) and hopefully by spring they'll be tackling the backlog if not sooner!

 

Unless there's a drastic change I don't know if we'll see much of a decrease in wait time this year but maybe we'll at least see some but right now I'm just happy that we shouldn't have longer waits coming!!

This is great news; however, it comes with a caveat.

 

Let's consider the weeks that have just passed. Christmas, New Years, Hanukkah, you name it. Plainly speaking, every supervisor of enough seniority was off on PTO. Tier I Officers kept processing cases, only to have them pile up waiting for approval.

 

I would love to see faster processing speeds as much as everyone else here; I just don't think this is it. This week's numbers will probably drop down to 400s-500s.

 

Another concern I have is the stretching of the approval widespan. The first wave of approvals is hitting as far as November 4th while there are August cases getting brand new RFEs - and fresh expedite denials too? Something is not adding up here: perhaps, USCIS is intentionally cherry-picking easier cases to keep the overall processing average at 15.5 months?

 

Their latest documents no longer speak of 6-month I-129F timelines by the end of FY23 either.

[Lynxyonok 316]

9 hours ago, h02ejmajja said:

If none of it is processed by USCIS then whoever is extrapolating this data is reporting it based on what people are self reporting. People lie, people get lazy - this doesn't really mean anything if it's not official sites. 

 

Even on USCIS official sites the information can be confusing because the I-129 is used for both K1, K2, K3 and K4 so even when you look at those petitions (published quarterly) there's no way to know for sure how many are for each category. 

No, it's based on official data - it's just pulled in large chunks using scripts or Case Tracker apps. In effect, USCIS is spammed with hundreds of requests using https://egov.uscis.gov/casestatus/mycasestatus.do for data.

[AndiB 662]

3 minutes ago, madmanmike said:

Our timeline guess from the website here just added another 6 days to our estimate. June ‘22 filer. Estimated date now 12 Sep ‘23. 

the improvement won't have an effect yet, it was literally last week????? Also one week out of multiple. We expect times to stop increasing on USCIS (maybe one more increase) but they will not stop here for awhile. They are based on users of the site whereas USCIS is a rolling average. This website hasn't quite caught up to the current USCIS times from what I've seen.

[Lynxyonok 316]

9 hours ago, New Romantics said:

Someone who knows can correct me, but I don't think the data is extrapolated. It's more that they run some sort of script and collect updates on the case numbers, or something of the sort. I'm not a computer person lol 

Some of it is - past performance is compared to trend change in current activity. Plainly speaking, if 5% extra cases are processed per week, and last week there were 500 cases, then 505 are expected to be processed next week. It's much more complicated, of course. 

[Lynxyonok 316]

8 hours ago, JeanneAdil said:

i can not find October thru December yet  (1st quarter of 2023 fiscal year)

It's usually posted within a month if trends are good and within three if they aren't. 

[Lynxyonok 316]

7 hours ago, JeanneAdil said:

visa prioitys often change

in the summer student visa interviews are pushed 

 

and right now Immigration is dealing with Ukraine and whatever they come up with for all the new illegals streaming in 

and its only going to get worse at the Mexico /Us border as the arrest of Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzmán, has led to riots in mexico driving decent citizens to flee

My favorite moment - there's an app now to schedule your own border crossing date / time and have a preset interview right at the border. 🤠 

[Lynxyonok 316]

17 minutes ago, madmanmike said:

Our timeline guess from the website here just added another 6 days to our estimate. June ‘22 filer. Estimated date now 12 Sep ‘23. 

I'd prepare for November.

 

 

[madmanmike 191]

Just now, Lynxyonok said:

I'd prepare for November.

 

 

Well, aren’t you just a little ray of sunshine?

[Lynxyonok 316]

6 minutes ago, madmanmike said:

Well, aren’t you just a little ray of sunshine?

Just reading the data. USCIS new priorities are more work visas, more refugees, and more adjustments of statuses for those already here.

 

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/OPA_ProgressReport.pdf does not say "I-129F" even once.

[Sou 11]

11 hours ago, AndiB said:

Talk of processing hitting 700-800 last week! I am unsure if the spreadsheet I follow includes RFEs as it's usually almost 100 out from totals I see elsewhere so we're either meeting incoming or close to! Either way we shouldn't be seeing jumps in wait times any more (maybe we'll get one more 0.5 increase) and hopefully by spring they'll be tackling the backlog if not sooner!

 

Unless there's a drastic change I don't know if we'll see much of a decrease in wait time this year but maybe we'll at least see some but right now I'm just happy that we shouldn't have longer waits coming!!

I’m a dec 2022 filer and I’m honestly just hoping it stays the same cause the chances of it increasing is so high 😭 and i also don't want to get my hopes up by thinking it might decrease. But all in all this is good news! Hopefully they’ll keep up the work

[madmanmike 191]

3 minutes ago, Lynxyonok said:

Just reading the data. USCIS new priorities are more work visas, more refugees, and more adjustments of statuses for those already here.

 

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/OPA_ProgressReport.pdf does not say "I-129F" even once.

In your words, you say, I-129f is not mentioned even once. 
 

So you extrapolate ‘no data’ into adding 60 days to my timeline. Interesting. 

[Lynxyonok 316]

3 minutes ago, madmanmike said:

In your words, you say, I-129f is not mentioned even once. 
 

So you extrapolate ‘no data’ into adding 60 days to my timeline. Interesting. 

 

A'ight.

I'm estimating there are presently 23,448 cases between yours and the first wave as of this moment. The latest cases approved were from November 4th, the lowest-numbered November 5th case is 2290014955. I stopped doing precise case counts after my own NOA1, but based on April 2022 and March 2022 having set new records (3503 and 3803 outstanding cases), it's healthy to assume about 3,000 cases between us.

 

So, 23,448.

 

- 7,033 processed in Q4 22

- 7,230 processed in Q3 22

- 6,524 processed in Q2 22

 

The remainder is 2,661. I don't want to use Q1 22 as that was abnormally low, so I will be optimistic and use Q4 22 again. 2,661 is 37% of Q4 22, or 34 days.

 

So, from this moment you are 10 months and 3 days away, or November 18th, 2023.

 

[Kurt and Kristina 72]

Phone apps like “case tracker” let you put in, and search, 500 receipt numbers at a time.  This is only a small window and it includes more than just I-129f. Not saying this is how the author is getting the numbers, but this is one way to do it programmatically. We are Feb 22 filers and have seen the wait times jump from 10.5 months to 15.5 months AFTER the USCIS had published in March of 2022 that the goal was 6 months. It’s all conjecture until you get an answer, but it can keep your brain busy ☺️

Edited January 16, 2023 by Kurt and Kristina