OCTOBER 2021 I-129F K-1 FILERS

[mw & rg k1 627]

here is an update showing where (by week) previously untouched cases are being processed by USCIS (regardless of what next step occurs, I.e. RFE, Approved, Denied, etc)

 

If useful, you will find this update regularly by me in the December 2021 k1 forum.

[Carolina y Chris 9]

3 hours ago, mw & rg k1 said:

here is an update showing where (by week) previously untouched cases are being processed by USCIS (regardless of what next step occurs, I.e. RFE, Approved, Denied, etc)

 

If useful, you will find this update regularly by me in the December 2021 k1 forum.

So, if I understand this graph correctly, my case from Oct 4, 2021 will be touched in about 5 weeks (at the earliest)? 

[mw & rg k1 627]

3 hours ago, Carolina y Chris said:

So, if I understand this graph correctly, my case from Oct 4, 2021 will be touched in about 5 weeks (at the earliest)? 

It is a little early to make the projection yet ...
Over the next few weeks, it should be possible to make a reasonable estimate of where the majority of effort is.
The shape (hysterogram) is looking consistent but that also means some get processed sooner and later.

Will keep this data up so check into the December K1 2021 group for more updates to make your best projections.
I would guess October starts to see some minor activity in about 2 weeks but about 5 weeks until major case counts start to rise.
Factor in Thanksgiving and maybe another week added to that

[mw & rg k1 627]

Added some statistic calculation for updates of the above on going.
In general this will be found in the December 2021 k1 Forum even though it applies to us all 

 

Max (previously untouched) cases opened :    124
        Occurring week of:     2021-08-27

Total (previously untouched) cases opened :    421
Standard Deviation (grouped by week) :  27
Variance (grouped by week) :  755

[mw & rg k1 627]

On 11/12/2022 at 4:50 PM, Carolina y Chris said:

So, if I understand this graph correctly, my case from Oct 4, 2021 will be touched in about 5 weeks (at the earliest)? 

Part of Weekly Update - Nov 18th, 2022 in December 2021 Filers Group

ran the unopened case script to see where activity is at USCIS.

 

Observations suggest: 
1) October will start seeing a few cases opened sometime next week.   

2) December 1-3 receipt date may see a few cases opened  in 10-11 weeks (Late January)

 

Details:

This is the 3rd week in a a row where the bulk of new opened cases has moved towards the end of year by one week.
It appears USCIS is into opening September cases now even though there are still a considerable number of untouched cases in August.

     Week:    Was:     Now:    Delta:
     08/06    64         63             1
     08/13    122       83           39
     08/20    243      171         72
     08/27    442      344         98
     09/03    612      359         253   (Most this week)
     09/10    559      407         152
     09/17    740      712          28
     09/24    724      717           7
 

[serret 55]

I’ve seen people posting on Facebook about ten October cases getting approved last week, not expedited. Can someone confirm here? Anyone’s scanning October? 

Edited November 21, 2022 by serret

[Kiana & Katarina 192]

2 minutes ago, serret said:

I’ve seen people posting on Facebook about ten October cases getting approved last week, not expedited. Can someone confirm here? Anyone’s scanning October? 

I don’t know if it is true or not but once I have the script I will start scanning for October

[amylotti 0]

14 hours ago, serret said:

I’ve seen people posting on Facebook about ten October cases getting approved last week, not expedited. Can someone confirm here? Anyone’s scanning October? 

I filed October '21. Still waiting for NOA2.

 

Where did you see this on Facebook?

[serret 55]

3 hours ago, amylotti said:

I filed October '21. Still waiting for NOA2.

 

Where did you see this on Facebook?

Argh... I can't find the post now. But it should be on the "K1 VISA OCTOBER 2021 Filers" group. I'll send another comment when I find it.

Edited November 22, 2022 by serret

[Lynxyonok 316]

On 11/21/2022 at 10:35 AM, serret said:

I’ve seen people posting on Facebook about ten October cases getting approved last week, not expedited. Can someone confirm here? Anyone’s scanning October? 

It's possible since it's so minimal - these might be training cases with no issues whatsoever.

 

However, please remember that there are up to 4,000 cases within a month.

[serret 55]

5 hours ago, Lynxyonok said:

It's possible since it's so minimal - these might be training cases with no issues whatsoever.

 

However, please remember that there are up to 4,000 cases within a month.

Yeah that might be the case. But also, I can’t find the post anymore. Maybe someone made a mistake by thinking those cases were recently approved, then realized their mistake and deleted the post. Sorry for the false alarm!

 

 

[Nikobe 129]

4 hours ago, serret said:

Yeah that might be the case. But also, I can’t find the post anymore. Maybe someone made a mistake by thinking those cases were recently approved, then realized their mistake and deleted the post. Sorry for the false alarm!

 

 

There were nine approvals for October in the week of Nov 7-11 and four approvals in the last week. Approvals were in the 2000, 2500, 5500, 6500, 7500, 11000, 11500, 12500 groups.

These are random approvals, so they have not yet started October.

[KaiJared88 0]

Well, It may be that there are cases from visa fillers from Ukraine citizens . I heard they are first priority when they are married or engaged to US citizens. But don’t know if it’s true.

Edited November 25, 2022 by KaiJared88

[mw & rg k1 627]

Weekly Update: 

The USCIS seems primarily focused on September and doing some August Cleanup (first time I see a Bi-Modal distribution)

 Script does not protect against reading timeouts so do not count the actual Approved/Denied/RFE statistics but is intended

to get a sense of the general type of activity. (i.e. more RFE or more Approval/Denials) when the case is actually opened
 

Activity on untouched cases:
Week:    Was    Is    Delta   Approved    Denied    RFE        

08/06    63       51     12            6                 0           6
08/13    83       74       9            4                 0           4
08/20    169    152    17          11                0           8
08/27    342    264    78          59               1           21
09/03    359    328    31          17               0           12
09/10    407    341    66          55               0           11
09/17    709    628    81          64               0           20
09/24    716    652    64          60               0            5

[Kiana & Katarina 192]

Not expecting them to start on October filers quite yet, but there were three updates yesterday. 

 

3500: 1 Other (Notice Explaining USCIS Actions Was Mailed) (1 new / 0 in progress)
4000: 1 RFES (1 new / 0 in progress)
5500: 1 Approval (0 new / 1 in progress)
11/28/22: 3 Total Updates: 1 Approval, 1 RFES, 1 Other (Notice Explaining USCIS Actions Was Mailed)

 

Total for this month: 2174 Untouched, 93 Approvals, 2 RFESs, 1 RFER, 160 Denials, 115 Expedites(Denied: 114 / Approved: 1), 73 Withdrawals, 105 Others