Waiting for Interview in Manila

[Bochog 10]

Hi!

Anyone here waiting for an interview schedule in Manila?

 

What's your DQ date?

 

Let's update here!

[Adventine 3,187]

***Moved to the Philippines subforum as the question is specifically about interviews in Manila***

[top_secret 2,062]

We are waiting.  Cr-1 CR-2  Wife DQ since July 8 stepdaughter got delayed in NVC so just DQ Aug 31.  We are hoping that mom has been "holding the place in line" and now with daughter DQ they may both see some movement fairly soon.  Scrounging around here and elsewhere I was able find quite a few recent examples of cases at Manila where people had self-reported their DQ and Interview Letter dates.  For CR/IR-1 there really doesn't seem to be a significant backlog.  It Looks like those are moving pretty quick.  The situation with K-1 interviews remains apocalyptic though there does seem to be a modest uptick the last month reported.  I assume that other family categories have huge backlogs since they were almost completely ignored for close to a year but there seems to be some significant movement there the last couple months as well.

[top_secret 2,062]

 

54 minutes ago, top_secret said:

We are hoping that mom has been "holding the place in line" and now with daughter DQ they may both see some movement fairly soon.

Well, to follow up my own previous post.....  Just now, like 45 minutes after I posted that.  Wife and stepdaughter simultaneously received Interview Letter e-mails scheduling the interview for Oct 5.

[Bochog 10]

24 minutes ago, top_secret said:

 

Well, to follow up my own previous post.....  Just now, like 45 minutes after I posted that.  Wife and stepdaughter simultaneously received Interview Letter e-mails scheduling the interview for Oct 5.

WOW!

 

That was quick! I hope F2A moves like this, too.

 

Been DQ since last year. Wife is still waiting for an interview schedule  

[Girandola 52]

On 9/15/2021 at 5:44 PM, top_secret said:

 

Well, to follow up my own previous post.....  Just now, like 45 minutes after I posted that.  Wife and stepdaughter simultaneously received Interview Letter e-mails scheduling the interview for Oct 5.

Congrats! Wish you well!

[Goose22 0]

On 9/15/2021 at 4:44 PM, top_secret said:

We are waiting.  Cr-1 CR-2  Wife DQ since July 8 stepdaughter got delayed in NVC so just DQ Aug 31.  We are hoping that mom has been "holding the place in line" and now with daughter DQ they may both see some movement fairly soon.  Scrounging around here and elsewhere I was able find quite a few recent examples of cases at Manila where people had self-reported their DQ and Interview Letter dates.  For CR/IR-1 there really doesn't seem to be a significant backlog.  It Looks like those are moving pretty quick.  The situation with K-1 interviews remains apocalyptic though there does seem to be a modest uptick the last month reported.  I assume that other family categories have huge backlogs since they were almost completely ignored for close to a year but there seems to be some significant movement there the last couple months as well.

hello there im brand new here. I appreciate your updates. If you dont mind, where did you get this statistic from? "The situation with K-1 interviews remains apocalyptic though there does seem to be a modest uptick the last month reported" Me and my fiance have been approved and been sent to manila and waiting since Feb of 2020. Any updates on the K1 interviews today? Thank you!

[top_secret 2,062]

1 hour ago, Goose22 said:

hello there im brand new here. I appreciate your updates. If you dont mind, where did you get this statistic from? "The situation with K-1 interviews remains apocalyptic though there does seem to be a modest uptick the last month reported" Me and my fiance have been approved and been sent to manila and waiting since Feb of 2020. Any updates on the K1 interviews today? Thank you!

 

There is a number attributed to discovery in the Milligan v. Pompeo K-1 lawsuit being being thrown around of 6,000 to 8,000 approved K-1 petitions for the Philippines, documentarily qualified and stuck at NVC.  I have not found the actual source of that number though so it remains hearsay, but it is a backlog entirely consistent with actual number of K-1 visas issued since the pandemic began vs the average number of K-1 visas issued monthly before the pandemic.  It is also entirely consistent with yours and other couples wait times for K-1 interviews here and elsewhere.

 

Actual numbers of K-1 visas issued are published here. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/nonimmigrant-visa-statistics/monthly-nonimmigrant-visa-issuances.html

 

There is a fantastic web site someone created that scrapes the actual numbers from the state.gov website and averages the numbers of visas issued monthly in the 2 years before March 2020, to arrive at a "normal average". Then compares it to the actual number of visas actually issued after March 2020 to arrive at a theoretical 'deficit" of visa issuances.  Basically it shows that in the two years before March 2020 US Embassy Manila averaged 470 K-1 visas a month and in the months after March 2020 US Embassy Manila averaged about 50 K-1 visas a month.  They increased to a whopping 150 K-1 visas this July.  August number aren't out yet but will be interesting to see.  But by that theoretical measure US Embassy Manila has actually issued 6,900 fewer K-1 visas than they would of at their historical average rate.  Again, a theoretical measure of the backlog, but entirely consistent with other estimates.

 

https://visawhen.com/consulates/manila/k1

 

That visawhen.com website is really awesome if you understand where it is getting its numbers from and the limitations of it's predictions.

For C2A/F2A there were almost no visas at all issued for over a year but now showing a significant increase in numbers being issued.

 

https://visawhen.com/consulates/manila/c21f21

[flicks1998 1,044]

Thats a massive backlog.  It estimates 6,900 which makes pretty good sense.  I notice the site says now "14.7 months behind expectations" but thats processing at the expected 470 applications per month, or basically getting back to normal which we know wont happen.  July 2021 was the highest month since March 2020 at 149.  If we assumed USEM could average 200 per month, that would still be a 34.5 month backlog.  Add on top of this, the 8-11 months to get the work and travel permit once the I-485 is filed and anyone who has recently filed a K1 (from earlier this year until) now, should likely switch over to CR1.  With the Zoom marriage viable and allowing people to get around meeting in a 3rd country, plus allowing the USC to apply for a Philippine visa to consummate the marriage, a K1 makes no sense at all.

 

Even if USEM could average 275 K1s a month, that is still a 25 month backlog + 8-11 months travel/work permit timeframe AFTER applying for AOS once in the US.  

Edited September 21, 2021 by flicks1998

[Goose22 0]

43 minutes ago, flicks1998 said:

Thats a massive backlog.  It estimates 6,900 which makes pretty good sense.  I notice the site says now "14.7 months behind expectations" but thats processing at the expected 470 applications per month, or basically getting back to normal which we know wont happen.  July 2021 was the highest month since March 2020 at 149.  If we assumed USEM could average 200 per month, that would still be a 34.5 month backlog.  Add on top of this, the 8-11 months to get the work and travel permit once the I-485 is filed and anyone who has recently filed a K1 (from earlier this year until) now, should likely switch over to CR1.  With the Zoom marriage viable and allowing people to get around meeting in a 3rd country, plus allowing the USC to apply for a Philippine visa to consummate the marriage, a K1 makes no sense at all.

 

Even if USEM could average 275 K1s a month, that is still a 25 month backlog + 8-11 months travel/work permit timeframe AFTER applying for AOS once in the US.  

in my scenario, we got approved feb of 2020.. my fiance has recently emailed them and they said that they have had our document at the manila embassy since september of 2020. im really hoping we get some news soon because they have recently been getting back to my emails quicker than before.

[BJ&V 10]

I am sorry we haven't updated  our k1 visa timeline. We sent our 129-f  to USCIS  on Sept 2, 2019. Our case has been ready in US embassy Manila since June 2020 and finally on 12th this month I received an email given me an interview date for Oct 7, 2021. So things are moving but it is slow.

Edited September 21, 2021 by BJ&V
USCIS received on Sept 5, 2019

[Bochog 10]

At least you guys are in Tier 2 of the priority list. My wife is in tier 3

[top_secret 2,062]

45 minutes ago, Bochog said:

At least you guys are in Tier 2 of the priority list. My wife is in tier 3

If she is F2A look at the visa statistics on https://visawhen.com/consulates/manila/c21f21 and notice that in July, the last month reported, US Embassy Manila issued about 3 times as many visas as their historical average numbers in that category.  After a year of issuing almost no visas in that category there must be a significant backlog, but it does seem they have started making a meaningful effort to at least start trying to address it.

[Bochog 10]

16 minutes ago, top_secret said:

If she is F2A look at the visa statistics on https://visawhen.com/consulates/manila/c21f21 and notice that in July, the last month reported, US Embassy Manila issued about 3 times as many visas as their historical average numbers in that category.  After a year of issuing almost no visas in that category there must be a significant backlog, but it does seem they have started making a meaningful effort to at least start trying to address it.

I'm actually curious where they go that number.

 

I pulled the issuance from from the website and it doesn't add up. In any case, I'm still hopeful!!

[top_secret 2,062]

20 minutes ago, Bochog said:

I'm actually curious where they go that number.

 

I pulled the issuance from from the website and it doesn't add up. In any case, I'm still hopeful!!

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/MonthlyIVIssuances/JULY 2021 - IV Issuances by Post and Visa Class.pdf

 

Hmmm, I looked at it for July and I see what you mean.  Mayby F-2A is the preference category, but the visa type issued is FX1 ?????.  The Visa issuance report only says FX(?).  I believe https://visawhen.com/consulates/manila/c21f21 is combining the the 119 FX and 2 CX to arrive at the 122 "Spouse of lawful permanent resident" visas they are showing.  But now I wonder if it is lumping together FX2 and FX3 children with spouses since the visa report only says "FX".