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U.S. Consumer Confidence Jumps to Highest Level Since 2001 by Michelle Jamrisko

27 posts in this topic

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.....And then there's reality.


09/14/2012: Sent I-130
10/04/2012: NOA1 Received
12/11/2012: NOA2 Received
12/18/2012: NVC Received Case
01/08/2013: Received Case Number/IIN; DS-3032/I-864 Bill
01/08/2013: DS-3032 Sent
01/18/2013: DS-3032 Accepted; Received IV Bill
01/23/2013: Paid I-864 Bill; Paid IV Bill
02/05/2013: IV Package Sent
02/18/2013: AOS Package Sent
03/22/2013: Case complete
05/06/2013: Interview Scheduled

06/05/2013: Visa issued!

06/28/2013: VISA RECEIVED

07/09/2013: POE - EWR. Went super fast and easy. 5 minutes of waiting and then just a signature and finger print.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

05/06/2016: One month late - overnighted form N-400.

06/01/2016: Original Biometrics appointment, had to reschedule due to being away.

07/01/2016: Biometrics Completed.

08/17/2016: Interview scheduled & approved.

09/16/2016: Scheduled oath ceremony.

09/16/2016: THE END - 4 year long process all done!

 

 

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It's in the air. I fully expect silver price to plunge below $10 per ounce in the next year also.

Optimism abounds

Make America Great Again

Silver used to be that low. Then we elected ol' Flubya. Hopefully the blabbermouth in chief does a little better in that regard than the last Republican in office.


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Silver used to be that low. Then we elected ol' Flubya. Hopefully the blabbermouth in chief does a little better in that regard than the last Republican in office.

Unfortunately, presidents don't control the price of silver.

silver.png

Just like Obama tried taking credit for low gas prices, several times....which makes him either delusional, a liar, or both.


09/14/2012: Sent I-130
10/04/2012: NOA1 Received
12/11/2012: NOA2 Received
12/18/2012: NVC Received Case
01/08/2013: Received Case Number/IIN; DS-3032/I-864 Bill
01/08/2013: DS-3032 Sent
01/18/2013: DS-3032 Accepted; Received IV Bill
01/23/2013: Paid I-864 Bill; Paid IV Bill
02/05/2013: IV Package Sent
02/18/2013: AOS Package Sent
03/22/2013: Case complete
05/06/2013: Interview Scheduled

06/05/2013: Visa issued!

06/28/2013: VISA RECEIVED

07/09/2013: POE - EWR. Went super fast and easy. 5 minutes of waiting and then just a signature and finger print.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

05/06/2016: One month late - overnighted form N-400.

06/01/2016: Original Biometrics appointment, had to reschedule due to being away.

07/01/2016: Biometrics Completed.

08/17/2016: Interview scheduled & approved.

09/16/2016: Scheduled oath ceremony.

09/16/2016: THE END - 4 year long process all done!

 

 

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Unfortunately, presidents don't control the price of silver.

Presidents who love oil and like war have always been great for silver (and gold). Assuming you already own it. Once a person realized the only letters Bush could see in his alphabet soup were W,M, and D, the writing was on the wall.


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Presidents who love oil and like war have always been great for silver (and gold). Assuming you already own it. Once a person realized the only letters Bush could see in his alphabet soup were W,M, and D, the writing was on the wall.

I don't want to hijack naitch's thread so I will answer as briefly as possible. Further answers can be found in my thread pages 32-38. As you can see in the chart I posted in my above post, the price of silver went from around $5 to a high of just over $20, then a low of just under $10, during Bush's presidency. With Obama it went from $10, to $48, to just under $16 where it is now. All moves were entirely predictable regardless of what the president was doing. Very similar stories with both oil and gold. The reason we saw the drop in oil, gold and silver at the end of Bush's term was due to the deflationary forces that caused liquidity to ebb and flow in similar fashion in all assets opposite to the dollar, and including equity markets. Most people believe there is a negative correlation between the movement in stock prices and that of commodities and metals but the truth is it just depends on what period of time you're looking at. For the better part of 2003-2013 roughly they were moving up and down pretty much in tandem. But stocks traditionally being the last holdout, even once oil, gold and silver started declining again(which again had zero to do with Obama) for the last several years stocks have yet to join in.

Gold, Oil and Silver crashed with the equity market and rose with it is the bottom line and that has nothing to do with any presidents. And, the market did nothing but go up once America went to war in Iraq. I posted the following chart in this post.

ltpres.png

I explained there in detail how it doesn't matter who the president is, stocks follow valuations. For short periods of time the president can affect the magnitude of certain moves, sure, but it doesn't change the trend. That's my view and I know most people hold more conventional views and I'm fine with that but I like to point out there are other explanations out there when I see a need for it. Because having a conventional view is what usually ends up getting people in trouble. I have said in another thread that statistically speaking, Trump has less than one half of one percent chance not presiding over a recession. It doesn't really matter what he does or doesn't do, it's already baked in the cake. When it happens, the left will blame Trump and the right will blame Obama. The truth is somewhere in the middle; Obama helped fuel the bubble, but in the end it's just how cycles go. Reagan gets alot of credit but the truth is he took a market that was WAY UNDERVALUED historically, to fair value. Daddy Bush and especially Clinton then took a market that was fairly valued to WAY OVERVALUED historically. Baby Bush in 08 actually brought it down to around fair value. And Obama has now taken it back to being way overvalued. The lesson here is that valuations matter, and if what I think will happen happens, I can already see the whining by some how Trump's rich friends screwed the American people because rest assured they will know how to profit from it; They know how the system really works. But the truth will be that the American people screwed the American people because what most people fail to realize right now is that the great risk is not in missing out or being short into an exhausted run at 2000 valuations, but in failing to contemplate a 50-60% retreat. Now it might seem like I'm going way off track since we were not talking about equities but the reason I brought it up is again, to show that market forces, not presidents, move ALL prices, no matter the asset class and also because I still remember people in 2011 that failed to contemplate what later on happened to silver and gold. Everyone thought they were going to go up forever. I remember reading stories of old people piling their money in and I could do nothing but feel bad for them knowing the disaster they will be facing. And then Obama comes and takes credit for it...

C0s_IZKPXUAE0a_Th.jpg

But with this, the thread is all yours again naitch.


09/14/2012: Sent I-130
10/04/2012: NOA1 Received
12/11/2012: NOA2 Received
12/18/2012: NVC Received Case
01/08/2013: Received Case Number/IIN; DS-3032/I-864 Bill
01/08/2013: DS-3032 Sent
01/18/2013: DS-3032 Accepted; Received IV Bill
01/23/2013: Paid I-864 Bill; Paid IV Bill
02/05/2013: IV Package Sent
02/18/2013: AOS Package Sent
03/22/2013: Case complete
05/06/2013: Interview Scheduled

06/05/2013: Visa issued!

06/28/2013: VISA RECEIVED

07/09/2013: POE - EWR. Went super fast and easy. 5 minutes of waiting and then just a signature and finger print.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

05/06/2016: One month late - overnighted form N-400.

06/01/2016: Original Biometrics appointment, had to reschedule due to being away.

07/01/2016: Biometrics Completed.

08/17/2016: Interview scheduled & approved.

09/16/2016: Scheduled oath ceremony.

09/16/2016: THE END - 4 year long process all done!

 

 

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Note: I just realized I don't have the 2003 invasion marked in that particular chart but well for one we already know the year it happened and two it is marked in other charts in the same post that one is from. Also note, chart shows when presidents left office, not took office. This is also mentioned in original post.

Edited by OriZ

09/14/2012: Sent I-130
10/04/2012: NOA1 Received
12/11/2012: NOA2 Received
12/18/2012: NVC Received Case
01/08/2013: Received Case Number/IIN; DS-3032/I-864 Bill
01/08/2013: DS-3032 Sent
01/18/2013: DS-3032 Accepted; Received IV Bill
01/23/2013: Paid I-864 Bill; Paid IV Bill
02/05/2013: IV Package Sent
02/18/2013: AOS Package Sent
03/22/2013: Case complete
05/06/2013: Interview Scheduled

06/05/2013: Visa issued!

06/28/2013: VISA RECEIVED

07/09/2013: POE - EWR. Went super fast and easy. 5 minutes of waiting and then just a signature and finger print.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

05/06/2016: One month late - overnighted form N-400.

06/01/2016: Original Biometrics appointment, had to reschedule due to being away.

07/01/2016: Biometrics Completed.

08/17/2016: Interview scheduled & approved.

09/16/2016: Scheduled oath ceremony.

09/16/2016: THE END - 4 year long process all done!

 

 

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Well I wonder what the impetus was for that. Maybe the president?

Nope. Because then how do you explain the fact sometimes markets go up, sometimes down and sometimes sideways during wars? It was actually after a year-long sideways move following the 2000-2002 bear market which followed the dot.com bubble, and that formed the basis for the rise which was again, entirely predictable based solely on valuations. It's all in that post, including the following chart. It really is a shame some of you guys don't read it(I know for a fact some do which is the only reason I continue they just don't tend to comment).

valuations50topresent.png


09/14/2012: Sent I-130
10/04/2012: NOA1 Received
12/11/2012: NOA2 Received
12/18/2012: NVC Received Case
01/08/2013: Received Case Number/IIN; DS-3032/I-864 Bill
01/08/2013: DS-3032 Sent
01/18/2013: DS-3032 Accepted; Received IV Bill
01/23/2013: Paid I-864 Bill; Paid IV Bill
02/05/2013: IV Package Sent
02/18/2013: AOS Package Sent
03/22/2013: Case complete
05/06/2013: Interview Scheduled

06/05/2013: Visa issued!

06/28/2013: VISA RECEIVED

07/09/2013: POE - EWR. Went super fast and easy. 5 minutes of waiting and then just a signature and finger print.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

05/06/2016: One month late - overnighted form N-400.

06/01/2016: Original Biometrics appointment, had to reschedule due to being away.

07/01/2016: Biometrics Completed.

08/17/2016: Interview scheduled & approved.

09/16/2016: Scheduled oath ceremony.

09/16/2016: THE END - 4 year long process all done!

 

 

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Nope. Because then how do you explain the fact sometimes markets go up, sometimes down and sometimes sideways during wars? It was actually after a year-long sideways move following the 2000-2002 bear market which followed the dot.com bubble, and that formed the basis for the rise which was again, entirely predictable based solely on valuations. It's all in that post, including the following chart. It really is a shame some of you guys don't read it(I know for a fact some do which is the only reason I continue they just don't tend to comment).

The markets do. I was still referring to silver in particular though. I've traded gold and silver for a long time. I had over 3000 ounces of physical silver by the end of the 90's. I have about 400 left. I've bought and sold enough of it to know it's more than just following the markets.

The tendency for silver to go up in a global crisis generally holds. Gold even more so. I think silver is mitigated more by industrial uses than gold so tends to follow the direction of the economy closer.


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The markets do. I was still referring to silver in particular though. I've traded gold and silver for a long time. I had over 3000 ounces of physical silver by the end of the 90's. I have about 400 left. I've bought and sold enough of it to know it's more than just following the markets.

The tendency for silver to go up in a global crisis generally holds. Gold even more so. I think silver is mitigated more by industrial uses than gold so tends to follow the direction of the economy closer.

Well your question about the impetus was in response to me saying the market did nothing but go up once congress approved the invasion into Iraq, that's what you quoted so that's what I thought you were referring to.

In an inflationary global crisis I would agree, but not a deflationary one such as the ones we've been in the last decade and a half.

Look, I'm not saying geopolitical events don't have limited short term impact on the price of metals. Even in this thread I said the president does have some kind of short term effect on the magnitude of things. Exogenous events can also cause and/or exacerbate short term movements of price. But the bottom line is none of these can alter the medium to long term trend. That direction is pretty much set in stone.

But case in point - at the end of the day if you examine long term charts such as the one here http://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart

You can see, silver was down during the first gulf war. Silver didn't really do much during the vietnam war. Nor did it do much during wwii, in fact it spiked AFTER the war was coming to a conclusion. During the Korean War again, squat. So basically it only rose during the Iraqi invasion and even that was because global markets as a whole(ie demand) were up. Now, if you flip the chart from inflation adjusted to nominal it changes it just a little bit, but still down for the first gulf war and even the other wars did not alter the trend, that trend was already in place before and after them.

I'm not trying to discredit what you did or say or anyone else whether you traded before or not. We all have our own schools of thought and approaches. Just pointing out my own observations which we can either continue elsewhere or conclude that it is something we can agree to disagree on so we don't clutter naitch's thread. Either way, it's been a fun discussion and one you don't often get to have in an immigration forum. I always enjoy discussing the markets in any forum, be it real or virtual as it is one of my biggest passions so thank you for that :)


09/14/2012: Sent I-130
10/04/2012: NOA1 Received
12/11/2012: NOA2 Received
12/18/2012: NVC Received Case
01/08/2013: Received Case Number/IIN; DS-3032/I-864 Bill
01/08/2013: DS-3032 Sent
01/18/2013: DS-3032 Accepted; Received IV Bill
01/23/2013: Paid I-864 Bill; Paid IV Bill
02/05/2013: IV Package Sent
02/18/2013: AOS Package Sent
03/22/2013: Case complete
05/06/2013: Interview Scheduled

06/05/2013: Visa issued!

06/28/2013: VISA RECEIVED

07/09/2013: POE - EWR. Went super fast and easy. 5 minutes of waiting and then just a signature and finger print.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

05/06/2016: One month late - overnighted form N-400.

06/01/2016: Original Biometrics appointment, had to reschedule due to being away.

07/01/2016: Biometrics Completed.

08/17/2016: Interview scheduled & approved.

09/16/2016: Scheduled oath ceremony.

09/16/2016: THE END - 4 year long process all done!

 

 

Share this post


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Well your question about the impetus was in response to me saying the market did nothing but go up once congress approved the invasion into Iraq, that's what you quoted so that's what I thought you were referring to.

In an inflationary global crisis I would agree, but not a deflationary one such as the ones we've been in the last decade and a half.

Look, I'm not saying geopolitical events don't have limited short term impact on the price of metals. Even in this thread I said the president does have some kind of short term effect on the magnitude of things. Exogenous events can also cause and/or exacerbate short term movements of price. But the bottom line is none of these can alter the medium to long term trend. That direction is pretty much set in stone.

But case in point - at the end of the day if you examine long term charts such as the one here http://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart

You can see, silver was down during the first gulf war. Silver didn't really do much during the vietnam war. Nor did it do much during wwii, in fact it spiked AFTER the war was coming to a conclusion. During the Korean War again, squat. So basically it only rose during the Iraqi invasion and even that was because global markets as a whole(ie demand) were up. Now, if you flip the chart from inflation adjusted to nominal it changes it just a little bit, but still down for the first gulf war and even the other wars did not alter the trend, that trend was already in place before and after them.

I'm not trying to discredit what you did or say or anyone else whether you traded before or not. We all have our own schools of thought and approaches. Just pointing out my own observations which we can either continue elsewhere or conclude that it is something we can agree to disagree on so we don't clutter naitch's thread. Either way, it's been a fun discussion and one you don't often get to have in an immigration forum. I always enjoy discussing the markets in any forum, be it real or virtual as it is one of my biggest passions so thank you for that :)

Precious metals were tied to currency when we were on the gold standard though. We didn't see the same manipulation of the bullion markets prior to 1971 because it couldn't happen. Gold and silver were basically money then.

I agree though, we are beyond the scope of the topic now. My initial comment was in response to MarkPerrys assertion that silver would fall during the Trump presidency. It may, it has been falling anyway. It's not necessarily an indicator of how the economy is moving, as there are too many external factors involved. Certainly there are better things to look at for that.


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