PD 2016 Filers (F2A)

[Our Journey 73]

19 hours ago, Michael2017 said:

Important part of September VB:

 

H.  VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

FAMILY-sponsored categories (potential monthly movement)

Worldwide dates:

F1: Up to three weeks  (after October recovery)
F2A: Three to five weeks 
F2B: Up to six weeks
F3: Three to five weeks (after October recovery)
F4: Up to five weeks 

Hello Michael

 

Give me a estimate when do you think we are going to have our interview mate?... My wife and I want to be together by Christmas...

[Weebee 57]

2 hours ago, Jojo92122 said:

No. 

The VB predicts that the PD may move 3 to 5 weeks; ergo the word "potential".  It did not say that it will move from 3 to 5 weeks.  It has the potential to move 3 to 5 weeks which is not a guarantee that it will move 3 to 5 weeks.

Retrogression was not mentioned.  Where did you read that there would be no retrogression?  

 

Read carefully.  

While you have a valid point about the potential movement, my understanding of the projection is that movement of 3 to 5 weeks is expected, setting 3 weeks as the minimum. If you look at the projection for some of the other categories, they have a different wording, for example " up to 6 weeks" , which is a 0-6 range. Of course, cautious optimism is always advised. Nothing is guaranteed and demand can't be always predicted. We saw that with F4 India which moved forward despite the retrogression prediction in the previous VB.

Fortunately F2A is the easiest category to predict as the processing time is relatively short and most of the cases go to CP, which allows excellent visibility of demand. 

 

One more thing that nobody brought up so far - the projection was set through January. For me that's excellent news. 

As you know, the approval of petitions is heavily delayed due to increased amount of applications in Q1 of 2017. Seeing what happened at USCIS, I really feared a very slow movement of VB through that period. But the current projection actually sees the VB moving through Q1 without adding more wait time. So everybody who's PD is in 2016 would have to wait the amount of time set in the VB right now - 26 months ( maybe 27 for some). 

Hopefully this trend is here to stay for at least Q2 of 2017. 

[Michael2017 368]

12 minutes ago, Weebee said:

While you have a valid point about the potential movement, my understanding of the projection is that movement of 3 to 5 weeks is expected, setting 3 weeks as the minimum. If you look at the projection for some of the other categories, they have a different wording, for example " up to 6 weeks" , which is a 0-6 range. Of course, cautious optimism is always advised. Nothing is guaranteed and demand can't be always predicted. We saw that with F4 India which moved forward despite the retrogression prediction in the previous VB.

Fortunately F2A is the easiest category to predict as the processing time is relatively short and most of the cases go to CP, which allows excellent visibility of demand. 

 

One more thing that nobody brought up so far - the projection was set through January. For me that's excellent news. 

As you know, the approval of petitions is heavily delayed due to increased amount of applications in Q1 of 2017. Seeing what happened at USCIS, I really feared a very slow movement of VB through that period. But the current projection actually sees the VB moving through Q1 without adding more wait time. So everybody who's PD is in 2016 would have to wait the amount of time set in the VB right now - 26 months ( maybe 27 for some). 

Hopefully this trend is here to stay for at least Q2 of 2017. 

Unfortunately this is at least partly wrong. 

1. Any increase in Q1 2017 would potentially slow down VB AFTER january.

Currently cases are processed of July 22, and later, and Q4, 2016 was stable compared to Q2.

Q12017 are not processed till january 2019 and therefore the assumption you made is wrong.

 

2. One year ago I predicted close to exact movement of VB for full year 2018:

 

I have not calculated the numbers for the next fiscal year, but is is very sure

that VB for F2A will slow further, we can assume around 2.5 years and more wait at the end

of the next fiscal year.

 

[Yewande87 1]

17 minutes ago, Michael2017 said:

Unfortunately this is at least partly wrong. 

1. Any increase in Q1 2017 would potentially slow down VB AFTER january.

Currently cases are processed of July 22, and later, and Q4, 2016 was stable compared to Q2.

Q12017 are not processed till january 2019 and therefore the assumption you made is wrong.

 

2. One year ago I predicted close to exact movement of VB for full year 2018:

 

I have not calculated the numbers for the next fiscal year, but is is very sure

that VB for F2A will slow further, we can assume around 2.5 years and more wait at the end

of the next fiscal year.

 

With this September Vb , I only hope November 2016 pd gets current this year

[Michael2017 368]

Till January, starting from October VB, we can expect to 99% movement of 3 weeks to 5 weeks. 

[Yewande87 1]

4 hours ago, f.g said:

There is no movement this month, but what I understand from these sections that it will move from 3 to 5 weeks each month and no retrogression. am I right?

Oh well from I can only hope it does t retrogress, when is ur pd? 

[Weebee 57]

46 minutes ago, Michael2017 said:

Unfortunately this is at least partly wrong. 

1. Any increase in Q1 2017 would potentially slow down VB AFTER january.

Currently cases are processed of July 22, and later, and Q4, 2016 was stable compared to Q2.

Q12017 are not processed till january 2019 and therefore the assumption you made is wrong.

 

 

 

 

I'm speaking of Q1 of fiscal year 2017, meaning October - December 2016. As I stated, originally I feared there would be a slowdown during this period. There still could be a slowdown for December pd's though. As they will be processed after January 2019. 

I expressed hope the trend would continue after January but never said the wait time won't increase further. 

I don't see how my assumption is wrong. Its in line and based upon what we got as information from the latest VB.

 

Edited August 9, 2018 by Weebee

[Weebee 57]

40 minutes ago, Yewande87 said:

With this September Vb , I only hope November 2016 pd gets current this year

Let's assume each VB increases with the maximum projection of 5 weeks ( which is very optimistic to say the least). 

In such a scenario,

October VB would see  PD's current before Sep. 1 

November VB would see PD's current before Oct 8

December VB would see PD's current before Nov 15

 

 Even the best possible scenario would only see half of November PD's becoming current this year. The best possible scenario is very unlikely to happen. Unfortunately. 

[f.g 2]

37 minutes ago, Yewande87 said:

Oh well from I can only hope it does t retrogress, when is ur pd? 

29 September 2016

[Kimmychild426 1]

42 minutes ago, Weebee said:

Let's assume each VB increases with the maximum projection of 5 weeks ( which is very optimistic to say the least). 

In such a scenario,

October VB would see  PD's current before Sep. 1 

November VB would see PD's current before Oct 8

December VB would see PD's current before Nov 15

 

 Even the best possible scenario would only see half of November PD's becoming current this year. The best possible scenario is very unlikely to happen. Unfortunately. 

Good evening since my pd is August  12 possibility are i will  get il for October 

[Weebee 57]

28 minutes ago, Kimmychild426 said:

Good evening since my pd is August  12 possibility are i will  get il for October 

You will get IL for October in all cases. October ILs will be sent out in about 2 weeks from now.

Edited August 9, 2018 by Weebee

[Kimmychild426 1]

1 minute ago, Weebee said:

You will get IL for October in all cases. October ILs will be sent out in about 2 weeks from now.

Thanks  much for the heads-up 

[Yewande87 1]

1 hour ago, Weebee said:

Let's assume each VB increases with the maximum projection of 5 weeks ( which is very optimistic to say the least). 

In such a scenario,

October VB would see  PD's current before Sep. 1 

November VB would see PD's current before Oct 8

December VB would see PD's current before Nov 15

 

 Even the best possible scenario would only see half of November PD's becoming current this year. The best possible scenario is very unlikely to happen. Unfortunately. 

Wow, my pd is nov 10, so I guess till December then, just hope it doesn’t retrogress 

[Wynona 11]

5 minutes ago, Weebee said:

You will get IL for October in all cases. October ILs will be sent out in about 2 weeks from now.

So does that mean, PD with Dec 2016 will most likely receive ILs in January?

[Weebee 57]

29 minutes ago, Wynona said:

So does that mean, PD with Dec 2016 will most likely receive ILs in January?

Most likely December PD's would interview February or March, depending on how the VB moves and  whether their PD is towards the beginning or towards the end of December. So yes, in such case they could expect IL end of December or end of January.

Edited August 9, 2018 by Weebee