What are the chances? (TSC)

[TabeaK 516]

Difficult. I filed 2 weeks before you and I am hoping for a December 2015 wedding - no plans set in stone. I think I may be overly optimistic.

[TabeaK 516]

Oh, and the first come first serve isn't guaranteed. You could be the lucky one approved after 170d, but you could also be the poor sod left waiting 250d.

There is still a significant number of June 2014 filers around, for them it is gonna be close to 8 months.

[WalterC 1]

We're not planning any specific dates yet. Ok, so then I'll stretch that. What are the chances of us getting married in 2015 then?

I'd suggest filling in your timeline. The estimates for the NOA2 date can be very good. Once you have your timeline started you can easily compare your progress with others. We've found this feature to be very helpful, especially during the waiting periods.

[baron555 934]

We're not planning any specific dates yet. Ok, so then I'll stretch that. What are the chances of us getting married in 2015 then?

Possible.

[CharlieTanger 76]

Difficult. I filed 2 weeks before you and I am hoping for a December 2015 wedding - no plans set in stone. I think I may be overly optimistic.

Why, do you think it could really be over 1 full year?

[CharlieTanger 76]

Also, I know they say it doesn't matter. But do you really think that if a lawyer or professional preparerer prepared your application you have a quicker shot? I'm beginning to think that's how they wean people out. So the couples who had theirs reviewed by professionals get first priority. However, we'll never know...

[TabeaK 516]

Based on the reports on here: I doubt the lawyer speeds up the process. We are not using one - rather use that money for the honeymoon.

Why do I think it might be a year or more? Big chunks of Obamas executive order on immigration are coming into effect in Feb and May. I think it is seriously going to gum up the process. We will not be out of TSC/NVC before that. We legal immigrants-to-be basically get shoved to the back of the queue by the illegals. At least that's what happened during DACAs first incarnation.

Edited February 5, 2015 by TabeaK

[trublubu2 62]

hi there,

i sent off my i-129f packet at the FedEx/Kinko's store at 6pm 31dec14, got my notification of receipt email and text on 7jan15 and my 797 official notification letter says 9jan15--i'm also been assigned to tx svc ctr.

i don't think it matters where your beneficiary is from, or who they are--unless it's the phillipines (although i saw a few anomalies with short tsc noa2 issuances in the vj timeline searches)--tsc seems *very* backlogged.

at first, i was all a-tizzy trying to get everything done and planning to be married by july or august, per the estimated k-1 completion dates i saw on this site. however, what i've learned since i've been reading more of the vj's couples experiences is at this point, all i can do is get my paperwork ready to send, wait, and be content.

yes, i can plan some little things like compare and contrast costs and feasibility of a justice of the peace wedding

vs. a church wedding or a quick and simple destination wedding somewhere like vegas or the poconos, or look for wedding dresses and invitations and stuff like that, but i dare not make any concrete plans that would cost me stress or money to rescind. i've seen so many people post about being held up at nvc, being held up at the embassy/consulate, being denied, etc and so on, that i'm thinking that this tsc waiting game is time to find the simplest plan, save money for when things start going fast and furious (aos fee $$$$) and chill out, lol

this is a true waiting game and a lesson in patience and stoicism. i'm looking at it like this: if this period apart hurts the ardor or strength of our relationship, then good, it wasn't meant to be for us and we both dodged bullets.

i wish you the best of luck in your endeavor and may it all work out well for you and your loved one.

Hello all!

Our K-1 Visa was officially documented by the TSC on January 12, 2015 and we recieved our hard-copy NOA1 on January 15, 2015.

I would like to be realistic with this whole process. If it helps to determine, my fiancé is from England (UK) no criminal records, etc. and everything is in good standing.

I would like to know my realistic chances of having our wedding this August? What about September? Or October at the latest?

I know the TSC tends to take the longest, but we agreed that any of those three months that I listed would be just fine for our wedding.

Does anyone have any input? I know we are all apart from our fiances for a while, but this forum will help me cope since we're all in this together!

[CharlieTanger 76]

Well then Texas should send a good handful over to California.

I honestly think this whole process is luck. Some get approved sooner than others just because. Or it's because of the person's background. I saw some people from Texas get approved after two months. So it's really just up to the person reviewing the application or whatever. I think if you look into it too much you just get a major headache.

[TabeaK 516]

Check the timelines. A lot of people erroneously put Texas as their Service center because they send the petition to Dallas. When you check there profile, the state actually means they are processed in California. A good 20-30% of Igor's lists entries are wrong that way.

The only people who get approved reasonably quickly these days are:

- Filipinos (Typhoon auto-expedite)

- people who manage to get an expedite (very, very rare - I have seen one guy being successful because his fiancee lives in the Ukrainian war zone, which is fair enough)

The rest of us: 200d plus. When I joined this forum 6 weeks ago it was around 190d average. Now it is approaching 210d.

The first weeks getting to grips with how unfair this process is was hard. Hell, there are December filers who got CSC and already have interviews lined up. Now, I am beginning to cope with it and just wait...I'll stalk the approval list every day still, but I expect 7+ Months just for NOA-2 and 1 year for the entire visa process.

Edited February 5, 2015 by TabeaK

[MSCastillo 27]

By the way its going you'd be lucky with a november wedding, i'd say december is more likely to know you'll be there for sure.

We applied beginning of november and have planned the wedding for end of october so its basically an entire year.

I hope its much faster for you though!

Worst case if you do make plans and can't cancel go for a holiday and enjoy it all then do a small ceremony when you go back for good with the visa!

also just remember that a lot of people probably don't think to update their timelines right away and some don't even do it at all with how long the wait has been! so don't use this timeline as a dead set of how long it will be

Edited February 5, 2015 by MSCastillo

[sma1488 155]

Well then Texas should send a good handful over to California.

I honestly think this whole process is luck. Some get approved sooner than others just because. Or it's because of the person's background. I saw some people from Texas get approved after two months. So it's really just up to the person reviewing the application or whatever. I think if you look into it too much you just get a major headache.

Nobody in recent months has been approved at TSC after two months without being expedited. Their way of processing cases has quirks, sure, but it's far less random than many people make it out to be.

[HislittleSecret 21]

We are submitting our Petition on tomorrow. I am considering a december wedding and my fiancé is in England as well. I really hope that they approve us by then. Or at least October or November. What do you all think?

[MSCastillo 27]

We are submitting our Petition on tomorrow. I am considering a december wedding and my fiancé is in England as well. I really hope that they approve us by then. Or at least October or November. What do you all think?

Honestly unless they do a transfer from tsc to csc you'll be lucky to go for december i reckon.

I hope its faster but theres a small likelihood. They're still doing july now so, you wouldn't be able to guarantee it for then and thats what you really want. You might just be at the edge of approvable by december though it might be quite close to that time.

[TabeaK 516]

Bottom line: Do not book anything that you can't cancel until you have the visa in hand.

All it takes is one snafu - and these happen after TSC at the NVC and Embassy stage as well - for you to be screwed.

If you file tomorrow, December is certainly not impossible.