Upcoming july visa bulletin 2014

[rafikbo76 2]

No matter what you calculate, it will be wrong at the end

Last june VB is good proof of ur statement, it was a CHECKMATE

[Istanbuler 1]

Well, I never made a prediction before. But this time I will .

My predictions are :

AF= 55500
EU= 39500
AS=8000
OC=1270
SA=1600

[franko 2]

Well, I never made a prediction before. But this time I will .

My predictions are :

AF= 55500

EU= 39500

AS=8000

OC=1270

SA=1600

Add another 50 to EU and I'll approve

Edited May 7, 2014 by franko

[IheartNY 2]

OC 1450

[SusieQQQ 11,585]

OC 1450

Prediction or call to KCC?

[IheartNY 2]

Prediction or call to KCC?

Oh wow- sorry I should have been clearer! Prediction only. Fingers crossed it comes true

[Istanbuler 1]

Add another 50 to EU and I'll approve

I hope it will cover both of us Franko

[Istanbuler 1]

Is anyone planing to call today?

[levi2al 0]

We (I personally) didn't know it happened or not before

because the only detail about cases number treated was available for 2013, and 2014

The truth is based on one year uncompleted data (2013), we can't understand what is going on exactly

Hi rafikbo76. Where we are with CEAC Data? Do you have any recent update of CN?

My CN is around EU37000, what do you think? Do I have a chance to get an interview?

Thank you in advance

[rafikbo76 2]

Hi rafikbo76. Where we are with CEAC Data? Do you have any recent update of CN?

My CN is around EU37000, what do you think? Do I have a chance to get an interview?

Thank you in advance

The last data is up to 05-03-2014.

here is the link

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_m-5eUaJfWH--B_FGegRKJAfc044SBzCfvUa3grPm4k/edit?pli=1#gid=29386064

[rafikbo76 2]

Hi rafikbo76. Where we are with CEAC Data? Do you have any recent update of CN?

My CN is around EU37000, what do you think? Do I have a chance to get an interview?

Thank you in advance

The last EU VB was so confusing, may be other guys can tell you about ur chances

[vladek15425 7]

Hi rafikbo76. Where we are with CEAC Data? Do you have any recent update of CN?

My CN is around EU37000, what do you think? Do I have a chance to get an interview?

Thank you in advance

I believe you have a strong chance.

[levi2al 0]

I believe you have a strong chance.

Thank you vladek15425. I hope that your prediction to be right. GBY

[szym 2]

Thanks for all your comments concerning my flow chart.

I would like to point out that I use "Case Number per one visa" instead of refusal rate, family rate and absence rate. I think that combining those 3 factors in one general value gives a better prediction. This value is now at about 2,34 Case Number per one visa issued for EU (if the data I based my calculation on, is correct).

I was doing calculations only for EU, and I saw that "Case Number per one visa" is raising every year. We know how many visas were issued every year for EU, but I do not know how many (exacly) CN were interviewed every year (cut-off number does not represent highest CN on interview). Can somebody provide me with those values? We could predict future "Case Number per one visa" value.

One more thing: I was looking at this data: http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2013AnnualReport/FY13AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf

and I think there is a mistake for Poland in DV2013. It is showing 752 visas issued for Poland in DV2013, but CEAC data is showing 1352 visas issued. Which data is correct?

Doeas it mean that the total visas issued for EU in DV2013 is also wrong?

I see on the top of PDF document: "FY 2013 data is preliminary and subject to change. Any changes would not be statistically significant." but 751 visas comparing to 1352 visas is a significant difference.

[rafikbo76 2]

Thanks for all your comments concerning my flow chart.

I would like to point out that I use "Case Number per one visa" instead of refusal rate, family rate and absence rate. I think that combining those 3 factors in one general value gives a better prediction. This value is now at about 2,34 Case Number per one visa issued for EU (if the data I based my calculation on, is correct).

I was doing calculations only for EU, and I saw that "Case Number per one visa" is raising every year. We know how many visas were issued every year for EU, but I do not know how many (exacly) CN were interviewed every year (cut-off number does not represent highest CN on interview). Can somebody provide me with those values? We could predict future "Case Number per one visa" value.

One more thing: I was looking at this data: http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2013AnnualReport/FY13AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf

and I think there is a mistake for Poland in DV2013. It is showing 752 visas issued for Poland in DV2013, but CEAC data is showing 1352 visas issued. Which data is correct?

Doeas it mean that the total visas issued for EU in DV2013 is also wrong?

I see on the top of PDF document: "FY 2013 data is preliminary and subject to change. Any changes would not be statistically significant." but 751 visas comparing to 1352 visas is a significant difference.

I think your point about CN per Visa is good for predicting the MAX CN at the end of the year.

You should take into account one thing : a case chargeable to poland is different from a case interviewed in Poland, CEAC data give you number of interview conducted in poland (it could be for people not chargeable to poland),

the link you provide is the official stats and it gives issued VISA by country of changeability.