Inconsistent NOA1 to NOA2 processing time on VJ site

[CowBoE 429]

Looking at this chart, days it takes between NOA1 to NOA2 is between 81 to 208 days

depending on the service center location. Luckily mine is with TSC, which is the shortest at 81.

I am assuming this is calendar days and not working days only.

http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/stats.php?cfl=

However, when I created my timeline and entered NOA1 date of Dec 19, 2013,

it is estimating the NOA2 time to be Jan 23 to Feb 4, 2014, which is only 35 to 47 days

between NOA1 to NOA2.

Therefore, it's obvious that above 2 calculations are not using the same data or time range.

I think the first table (the link above) is skewed by some petitions that took really long time.

Thought not scientifically tracked and calculated, from what I've been observing and looking at other

petitioners' timelines, the days it took between NOA1 to NOA2 usually seem to be about 4 to 6 weeks,

which is far less than the above table of 2.5 to 6.5 months.

Any thoughts on this guys?

[Pitaya 2,577]

One of the main things that I have learned since starting our immigration journey over two years ago, is that processing times predicted and actual are consistently inconsistent throughout the process.

Additionally, VJ stats only reflect data accurately inputted by VJ members and not USCIS numbers. Use them as a rough gauge and don't bet the bank on the estimates.

YMMV

Edited January 7, 2014 by A&B

[Dave&Roza 748]

Looking at this chart, days it takes between NOA1 to NOA2 is between 81 to 208 days

depending on the service center location. Luckily mine is with TSC, which is the shortest at 81.

I am assuming this is calendar days and not working days only.

http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/stats.php?cfl=

However, when I created my timeline and entered NOA1 date of Dec 19, 2013,

it is estimating the NOA2 time to be Jan 23 to Feb 4, 2014, which is only 35 to 47 days

between NOA1 to NOA2.

Therefore, it's obvious that above 2 calculations are not using the same data or time range.

I think the first table (the link above) is skewed by some petitions that took really long time.

Thought not scientifically tracked and calculated, from what I've been observing and looking at other

petitioners' timelines, the days it took between NOA1 to NOA2 usually seem to be about 4 to 6 weeks,

which is far less than the above table of 2.5 to 6.5 months.

Any thoughts on this guys?

Really depends on when in the cycle you enter the process and for what visa type. Back in 2010 when we submitted the K-1 processing times were in the 3-5 months range and ours was approved in 116 days--that was 75 days for the NOA2 and then 41 days for the interview. Last year we were seeing 6-9 months for the K-1 visa. Now we are back down to 3-5 months or even faster. So it really depends on which line you get into and when. You say you are lucky being at the TSC whereas people last year were cussing it out as it seemed like no one was getting approved. The same thing happens at VSC and CSC, on eis faster then the other becomes faster. The only thing I can offer you is that it will take as long as it takes and when you finally get thru it is well worth it.

Good luck,

Dave

[CowBoE 429]

Yup...all estimation is as clear as mud...until it's approved.

It would have been nice if VJ site had bit more sophisticated filtering on this data so that

you can customize date ranges and service center and see what is going on currently.

[KayDeeCee 4,893]

~ Moved from K-1 Process to Site-Related Discussion - topic about site features/timelines ~

[Phred 5]

I am not looking at the calendar, so I may be off +/-1 or 2 days.

My i129F took 63 days from NOA1 to NOA2. When I received the RFE I gave up and wrote a letter rescinding the petition (never mailed). The others encouraged me so I submitted the papers. (I wasted 38 days). That means my request took roughly 25 days (excluding the time I sat on the RFE).

Either I was really lucky, someone likes me, my veteran status paid off, or the timelines are a well meaning guess. I seldom get lucky, and my past experience with the US government suggests that they do not like me very much.

I am not attempting to downplay the hard work that was put into the timeline calculation script. I am just pointing out that the US government is unpredictable. The timeline is clearly just a ballpark figure.

[QueenOfBlades 224]

From experience, I would tell you not to sit fixating at Igor's List and the average processing times and getting yourself worked up about it. It's completely unpredictable and it messes with your emotions - builds your expectations too high or makes you feel depressed because it's taking too long.

Last year when I filed, CSC filers were at their wits end because there were hardly any approvals for months on end. Then all of a sudden, CSC approvals firing out at a ridiculous rate. VSC slowed to an almost halt with crazy things like bed bugs and at the rate they were going, we expected a 8-9 month wait for our NOA2. Out of the blue, tons of VSC folk get transferred to god knows where and everyone scrambles about trying to find out where, then it ends up at TSC (we were the first K-1s to be sent there in years), then we were told there could be a delay whilst they train up their staff to do K-1s.

Point being this. This process is completely unpredictable and you can't let yourself "expect" anything. It could speed up or slow down at any moment, they could open or shut down service centers to K-1s at any time. Be patient and don't drive yourself mad refreshing your status tracker and Igor's List and your time will come when you least expect it. (Mine came in at 2am on a work night)

[Blossomman999 0]

We predict for 8-9 months but after we applied it,right now almost 4 months but we still stuck at NVC case number process !!goshhh

At first,I'm so happy to get NOA2 very fast but we're so very disappoint to wait NVC more longer than NOA2

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NOA2 - 48 days

NVC 15Nov - present alomost 7 weeks and storm !!! hahaha

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Edited January 8, 2014 by Blossomman999