DavenRoxy

Dang girl, that is terrible. F-I-L at Thanksgiving, and now this?? So sorry to hear. Our best wishes and prayers to you and your family.

I do not claim to "predict" the market. I am not a psychic, only a trader. Flesh and blood. No one can actually do that. I do have a set of tools I work with that help me(or any trader with a good set of tools for that matter) identify trends when they first start, not when they end. I don't try to lead the market, I FOLLOW the market. what it tells me, I do. That means that if I have to wait for it to decline 5% in order to see if some of my conditions are being met and in order for me to safely be able to determine that a new downtrend has started, I see no shame in that. It's better than trying to call top, after top, after top right at the peak and failing. It is also better than trying to call bottom after bottom when that 5% decline turns into 50%. So we're not there yet, and I'd appreciate if you also paste the quote where I said as long as it is above that level it will keep going up, cause just because I post my thought which was it will begin this year, doesn't mean I trade based on that and I specifically mentioned that, too. There's what you think will happen, and there's what the indicators tell you. The indicators are saying: not quite yet. But when it comes I'll still be here to let you know.

Fair enough, and I don't pretend to know anything about the market nor where it will head, except what I see, and what I see seems to be a slow trend upwards. And if you were wrong about the late 2014/early 2015 decline, I won't hold it against you, I just said I don't see it happening. I hope you are wrong, for all of our sakes. If things DO get worse than 2008 was (as you postulated it will), I think it will set the middle class back so far it may be hard for most to recover in this lifetime. Land values tanked in 2008, and still have not recovered. It will take a while yet before they do, IFF there is not a setback in the near future.

OTWT (Only Time Will Tell), I always say. One can hope for the best, but should prepare for the worst.

ETA: And to be fair, you predicted gas would go way below $3 per gallon as things got worse. If your other predictions are correct, commodities and precious metals will tank next (if I understood you correctly).

Can you show me where exactly I said there would be an exact time frame? I already said, stocks are as always the last holdout. Lets agree to meet here in two years, Dec 2016 and revisit this. I did the same thing with someone who mocked me in early 08, by the time the date we agreed on came, he was nowhere to be found. So don't go disappearing on me. This is going to take a while, it is a long process and there are many forces(such as the Federal Reserve) foolishly trying to fight it, temporarily holding it up.

The market is a bubble right now. I think 2014 a new downtrend will start, 2015 will be the panic stage.

Ok, technically you did not specify late 2014, that was a trick of my memory. But I was close...

It's probably also worth mentioning that when this first came up, I think like 10 months ago, I specifically said that as long as the S&P500 is above a certain level, they are good to go. They've stayed above it since, so obviously as far as I'm concerned they are still good to go. I've also said numerous times(pretty much every time it came up again since - and I've had to repeat myself cause nobody listened the first, second or third time so here we go lets say it yet again) that when I believe the serious decline has indeed started, I will explicitly mention it in the forum. I have not done that as of yet, so obviously, I do not believe it has. Stay calm, when it does, I will. And hopefully I don't have to repeat this again until then. But hey, don't confuse liberals with facts.

Sure, I'll wait around for you to predict the decline of the market after it begins to decline. But bear in mind, I will probably expire in about 30 years...

Cost of living the Philippines went through the roof.

Perhaps if your house only has 5 foot walls.

Living in the PI is one half to one third the cost of most places in the US. Probably more like one fourth of where you live.

Because he was most likely deluded, mentally insane, doing drugs thus fueling paranoia, and latched onto a movement. You know, just like any other terrorist, murderer, or mass shooter. I'm sure he thought the girl he shot first was his one true love that rejected him or something due to his criminal past that he probably felt wrongly accused of and being held back from achieving some lofty goal (because in his world everyone should be able to do drugs, beat, and steal from other people).

Oh stop it. Surely you know from reading VJ that guns kill people. No need for a crazy or a terrorist.

so do the points awarded by the mods.

True. While in a different category altogether, some folks just LOVE racking up them points!

I voted YES i hate guns and people I don't handle gun responsibly well.

Fixxored for you.

Sorry, I didn't want people reading this for days. I am not sure if there are complaints about Virginia. Good state to my understanding.

Got to love the Texas comment.

And Hawaii!! As much tourism as they get you would think people living there would be rich. Very interesting.

The cost of living, particularly housing, is higher than anywhere in the US. Like 50-70% higher. I recently turned down a job there for $120,000 because it just wasn't worth it. It equates to about $78,000 in Alabama.

Gas prices are only news to all the "experts" that kept selling us that they are going to go over $5 a gallon. Now that prices have been cut by almost half, they are finally on board, now they suddenly predict lower prices. "Experts" are the perfect herd. They are always late to the trend. So beware, now that it's finally popular to say oil and gas prices are going down, I think they are actually at least close to a short term bottom. mid to long term I believe they will keep declining. I called this decline when the "experts" called prices going higher, and now that the experts are on the bandwagon it's time to call a bounce. Beware when a trend becomes too popular, that means it's almost exhausted.

Didn't you predict a pretty large down-turn in our economy by late 2014 a few months back? Doesn't appear to be happening yet.

An ex-girlfriend from the Philippines warned me not to travel there. According to her, Americans can be targets for kidnapping and such.

No offense, but you need a more reliable source than your ex. I've been to the PI several times and never had an issue. Then again, I was smart enough to stay out of Zamboanga.

Maybe they didn't have 30 respondents that were parents. Maybe most people re-locating to those climates are sans rugrats.

I'm looking forward to expatriate in February. Any advice from experienced expats???

I've heard China is good, minus the language barrier, but I suspect you have an in when it comes to that.

I'm looking at Philippines (Palawan, Cebu, Bohol or Boracay), Belize, Thailand. Wanting to stay in each country for 4-6 months, see where we like best.

Belize is VERY receptive to older, retired ExPats. Residency for the asking, tax breaks on buying land, English (official language) is spoken everywhere about as much Kriol.

The funny thing is that in most jurisdictions with the term 'assault weapon', the AR 15 magically loses its assault weapon status when you take away the pistol grip.

I know. *sigh* Ignorance knows no bounds it seems. Even with TONS of explorable evidence all over the internet.

When you look at this video and tell me everyone looting was all black then talk. Until then, please stop.. You are embarrassing yourself.

34, seconds, 1:17 take a good look.

Also, what does black people have to do with this thread?

So an assault rifle is needed???? Are there no other means to kill a deed? This type of rifle is not needed for the average individual.

Neither the gun maker nor the manufacturer of ammunition is to blame for assaults on other humans. I bet no one would go after a Samurai Sword maker if one happened to be the assault weapon of choice.

I'm throwing the BS flag on this one. Philippines, Belize, and Brunei are mysteriously absent...

I sense some jealousy around here, Marvin. Are you sure we should be working to get in the good graces of Val? Seems there may be more money to be had with these Navy wanna-bees.

Touching pork is an issue for him.

I love touching pork. And smoking it. And eating the schmack out of it!!

Key word.... conviction.

What TBONE said, Marvin. Twice.

Money is not the only reason to change jobs, but it DOES pay the bills. Believe that if the RI folks needed to cut sone expenditures, your salary would be high on their list.

Put yourself and your family first. You've sacrificed enough the past two decades.

How does LIB know Val smoke weed?

Everybody knows that, except you.

Oops, I think I just let a cat escape...

I'm pretty sure LIB was referring to Val, not all blacks.

no way. i hadn't noticed.

Wow, very nice. Thanks for sharing!

the time has since passed.

Sorry I wasn't more Johnny-on-the-spot. Been in avoidance mode lately.

That's incredible, as well Teddy. Got a link?