eieio

10 minutes ago, mustang85635 said:

The wall works guys dont let anyone tell you otherwise . Everywhere where there was no wall and they built one, ( San Diego , El Paso , Yuma ) apprehensions came way down and so did the drug violence. I couldnt care less about some Democrat from new york telling ME , 80 miles from the border what works and what doesent . So ignorant and naive . Numbers proof it all. PM for links. Dont want to hijack this thread. 

 

So funny when Dems have voted time and time again to BUILD a wall in large numbers and now they pretend like it never happened because the alt left squeezes them so hard

Amen!  It so funny when brain dead people start shouting "WALLS DONT WORK"

5 hours ago, jg121783 said:

Not saying Adam Schiff is one but if I was in charge of casting for a movie about a creepy pedophile I would give him the lead role.

If I was in charge of casting for a movie about a corrupt,dishonest,lying,cheating, double dealing, creepy politician I would give him the lead role.

I hope the democrats keep Pelosi as leader for as long as she can breathe.  She is a disaster and every normal person can see it. 

10 minutes ago, bcking said:

"The Senate voted 81-18 to move forward on a bill to fund the government through Feb. 8 after Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) agreed to end the shutdown and continue to negotiate on immigration and spending matters. If a broader deal is not reached by Feb. 8, the Senate would take up legislation to protect hundreds of thousands of young undocumented immigrants who are losing legal protections, as long as the government remains open."

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/22/government-shutdown-2018-senate-vote-354966

 

So if a broader deal isn't reached by today, in order to keep the government open the Senate needs to take up legislation to protect the "Dreamers".

 

So I guess if Paul Ryan doesn't move things forward, the Senate has an obligation to do so. It's reasonable to wait to make sure that obligation will be followed through on before reaching an agreement. 

 

As I said - As long as I can get on my flight tomorrow I'll peace out and look for a resolution in three weeks time.

I am not sure I follow you. My understanding is that if a budget deal is passed and the gov remains open....then they will take up the immigration legislation.

6 hours ago, smilesammich said:

i have no idea. i couldn't care less about cnn. imo, if you think something is fake news or trash - don't pay attention to it. there's way too many options out there to focus on one channel.

for example, at one time i followed occupy democrats on facebook. once i saw a pattern of misleading and sensationalized posts - i stopped following. it's really that simple.

i agree with your way of dealing with fake news/dishonest reporting. its one of the reason i don't care for Sean Hannitys shows. He is always putting up clips or audio on his shows from the mainstream media or some loony celebrity. If I wanted to hear the nonsense CNN or MSNBC were playing….I would just listen to them.

2 hours ago, eieio said:

There will be another recession before this decade comes to an end, probably even more severe than the last one(*This was the original post. I now wish to add that I believe it will be by the end of 2016).

On 12/7/2015 at 9:19 PM, OriZ said:

This cannot be answered in short. I've made this point pretty clear(at least I thought) in the other thread. It's not as much a function of time, as it is of price, and even with time I clearly stated that I cannot pinpoint the exact timing of a top(it would be foolish and pretentious to attempt/pretend to do so).

I started talking about this being close to over(while also emphasizing that it's not quite yet - and that as long as the S&P500 was above the 1820 level - which it had stayed above for the next{last} two years, it was still in the clear) at the end of 2013. Keep in mind that that was at a time where between 2009-2013 the market rose by an average of almost 70% per two years, with a total return of roughly 170% in the 4 years before my post. In the two years since, some indexes are down and most are flat while the headline indexes(those who gave people 70% every two years) are up a measly 8%. So anyone who thought to themselves, 'wow, look at these markets - I'll get in here and make 70% in the next two years' only made 8% this time around. I've said it many times that tops are a process and not an event and this one sure has taken its sweet time due to all the people out there trying to fight it.

Of course a downturn is always inevitable, but I was quite bullish starting in early 2009 all the way to the end of 2013. That's only when I turned bearish so I think price wise - my timing was pretty good. Time wise - As I have written above - market internals have turned unfavorable in mid 2014. In past cycles, that was quickly followed by a broader deterioration in the headline indexes as well - normally no longer than a few months later. We are now almost 18 months later. Make no mistake about it, it will happen, but again those are only the headline indexes.

The broad market(in which market internals are in part inferred from) is indeed down for the year. Only around 30% of individual stocks are actually trending up, most of them large caps that are themselves in a bubble such as MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, etc. When those come down(and they will), they will come down hard, which will affect the market just as much as their rise has held it up.

This is the clearest sign of a fractured market on the verge of collapse. Credit spreads are already diverging and signaling trouble. That was not the case between 2009-2014 where credit spreads were aligned with the moves of the stock market. It's often said that the stock market, and especially the heavier stocks are the last to change direction. Credit spreads and bonds often signal trouble, or in the case of a bottom they signal a positive shift in the economy long before stocks do. Right now what we are witnessing is a divergence that so long as it lasts makes a severe stock market drop imminent.

As I've written above, a change in market internals or the technical picture would defer the immediacy of my concerns but would not change the bigger picture. I know you said you don't want to dig more deeply but considering everything I have just written above I'd like to understand which markers exactly I have missed. I will repeat the points that I wrote in that other thread:

* The market is in a very tiring uptrend and is on the verge of another trend change

 

* That trend change has not yet been completed as long as certain criteria is met for me - among those - a break of the Oct 2014 lows(I brought that up two years ago).

 

* Unemployment will not go much lower than 5% if it even does that, before it goes back up above 8%.

 

* There will be another recession before this decade comes to an end, probably even more severe than the last one(*This was the original post. I now wish to add that I believe it will be by the end of 2016).

 

* While I can not definitively tell you right now when exactly such recession shall begin, I WILL be able to do that once my requirements for a market top are met. So that will be as real time as it gets(again, we're not trying to PREDICT but rather work with tools that allow us to IDENTIFY far enough ahead of time).

 

* I am shorting the market already, with an expectation for a 40-50% decline from current levels. However, it could still creep up for a while longer if it wants to, but the return will be no more than another 10% on the upside from current levels, which will be ADDED to the total losses in the end so basically not worth the risk(again, this is an original post from half a year ago, so nothing has changed with the level of the market since. Even if it did in the near future, it will not change the prospects for a roughly 50% decline from current levels, and will just cause it to fall further).

 

* The market will have an avg annual return of ZERO for the next decade.

And it wasn't only the oil call but also the dollar and some others but either way that's not what matters. I'm not what matters. It's the bigger picture that I think is important for people to see that matters.

Look, if it doesn't turn, I can't always say it's still looming and be right. I don't play those games. I promise if the market rises another 100% from here over the next 4 years and then drops 50% back to current levels, I won't say "see, I told you do". BUT, if the market goes up another 10% from here over the next year, and then falls 60% by the end of the decade(from that top, and around 50% from current levels) you bet I will say I was right. So that's how it works, and I don't believe it's vague at all. If anything it may seem a little vague because there are of course limitations to trying to "predict" the market and I acknowledge those fully. I won't come here and say I can tell you exactly what the market is going to do tomorrow because I certainly can't.

So here is the post I remember. You did have stipulations on an imminent crash....so you have that covered. But you did believe that we would have a recession by the end of 2016. I guess that’s not really a prediction though. 

Anyways....it seems like a never ending prediction that’s basically says the stock market will crash someday. We will see how things are a year from now.

2 hours ago, OriZ said:

And once again...

 

So you're being disingenuous just like I thought you would be, kinda wasting both our times.

Diseingenuous? Huh. Literally you have been talking about a stock market crash since 2014.   Is that true or not?  Isn’t the stock market up like 10,000 points since then. You can say your prediction has been right but I don’t see it that way.  

Here is just a reply suggesting it would have happened by 2016.  

Not really the thread I remembered…but I will give it another stab tomorrow.

Quote

Can you show me where exactly I said there would be an exact time frame? I already said, stocks are as always the last holdout. Lets agree to meet here in two years, Dec 2016 and revisit this. I did the same thing with someone who mocked me in early 08, by the time the date we agreed on came, he was nowhere to be found. So don't go disappearing on me. This is going to take a while, it is a long process and there are many forces(such as the Federal Reserve) foolishly trying to fight it, temporarily holding it up.

So far It seems you predicted in early 2014. So I had the number of years right. Here is just a response/reply talking about it. 

Quote

   On December 21, 2014 at 9:38 PM, DavenRoxy said: 

Fair enough, and I don't pretend to know anything about the market nor where it will head, except what I see, and what I see seems to be a slow trend upwards. And if you were wrong about the late 2014/early 2015 decline, I won't hold it against you, I just said I don't see it happening. I hope you are wrong, for all of our sakes. If things DO get worse than 2008 was (as you postulated it will), I think it will set the middle class back so far it may be hard for most to recover in this lifetime. Land values tanked in 2008, and still have not recovered. It will take a while yet before they do, IFF there is not a setback in the near future.

OTWT (Only Time Will Tell), I always say. One can hope for the best, but should prepare for the worst.

ETA: And to be fair, you predicted gas would go way below $3 per gallon as things got worse. If your other predictions are correct, commodities and precious metals will tank next (if I understood you correctly).

So, I am very cautious still about calling this a bear market yet, stocks are only about 5% from the top, however I will say this; there's still a few things I'm waiting for to be 98% sure(can never be 100%). Right now I'd say I'm around 60-40. The S&P would have to drop under 1815 for me to call for a bear market(which in that case would extend the decline towards 1000 and possibly less). it's starting to look like the real thing but I'm still waiting on a few more confirmations. If it is indeed the real thing then we could say that the assumption that the decline will begin by the end of 2014 ended up being correct, but we shall see. 

As far as the prevailing thought that this is going to be so horrible for everyone well yes that is true, however I think what the Federal Reserve is doing is actually prolonging it and thus making everyone's misery last longer by trying to fight natural cycles. If the FED didn't try to butt in, there would have been a bigger, faster crash and by now there would be a REAL recovery. The world moves two steps forward, one step back. If you do not step back, you will not be able to continue moving forward and then all you will be is stagnant. That is exactly what the FED is causing. In a sense crises are not the problem, they are the solution. I feel bad for anyone suffering, losing their job, losing money in stocks, etc. But it is important to know that the solution to that is not for the FED to intervene, quite the contrary. If they sat on their hands things would have already been better instead of(IMO) getting worse in the next few years. It is only once this crash is allowed to run its course that things will genuinely get better. 

 

I'm on it. Like you won't be prepared.LOL

1 minute ago, OriZ said:

lol. Go for it but then you have to find every single other post I have written about it too as mentioned above. You know, markets are fluid, things change. I don't remember saying imminent but I would assume if I ever did it was right before the drop in 2015 which did happen and then once the market bottomed what I said was different. So any attempt to take any quote out of context will be extremely disingenuous and I have no intention of playing nice with that kinda stuff. 

Hey…I've read pretty much every single post you have made about it.  Just because I don't post about it doesn't mean I haven't paid attention.  But…I have time so I will see what I come up with……and it will be in context. Fair enough?

4 minutes ago, OriZ said:

eh...have I used the word imminent? again a case of someone understanding only what they want to understand from what I have written....I have posts upon posts already explaining that situation so really feel no need to get into it again. But I have them all bookmarked so don't worry when the time is right I will.If only people would actually do some research...like my post in my thread right around the bottom in 2015 saying that was support and as long as the market is above it it's good to go, or my post a year ago saying I think it will go to at least 2600 before anything happens, or my post a few months ago saying I actually hope this will wait for me till I'm back from my vacation in july since I won't have much internet access and don't want to miss out on all the fun, and literally dozens of other posts.

 

You guys only see in them what you want to see in them even though I was completely transparent and clarified more than once that as long as the index is above support, as bad as I think it is for the long term, it can keep going. And it hasn't been 4 years, in fact in the spring it will be about 3 years, I started saying it right before the drop of summer 2015(the one I just mentioned I identified the exact bottom of). So people can keep understanding only what they want to understand and I'll keep telling them that if they think their current paper gains are going to stick they're simply delusional. And by the time it's all said and done the market will be down 40% at the very least from that point in 2015(50-60% from current price)...no matter how high it goes first. That's really all there is to it and I have full confidence in that outcome.

Yes…you did say imminent.  You also predicted a housing crash by the end of 2016.   I can try to find your posts if you like?

Alex Jones is the same as CNN. I don’t watch or read either. Neither are trustworthy.

34 minutes ago, OriZ said:

Kinda missing the mark here. Knowing targets is important, knowing exact timing much less so. Anyone enjoying their lovely paper gains in their 401k right now don't realize that 50-60% of that will one day be gone. The fact that it might be from a higher market is irrelevant as it's nothing but paper gains unless you sell. Think for example, someone in their 50's or 60's today, imo their retirement could get hit really hard and probably not recover by the time they retire. If people want to ignore those warnings, well, that's too bad, but there's nothing I can do about it. As I said in investing patience is key. Anyone buying now is making a terrible mistake(akin to buying bitcoin at 20,000), no matter how fabulous their paper gains might still be before they lose it all and then some. Again, unless they sell before that happens, but most don't do that. So yes, 1,300 on the S&P500 and I'm being extremely optimistic. I'll wait to buy there.

 

Here is a good commentary with some valuable information:

 

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc180201/

To be fair you have been predicting an imminent stock market crash for 4 years.  If someone got in, against your advice, in 2014 when the stock market was at 15,000 or something and it tanks now….they really haven't lost that much. If they sell now they made a killing. If the stock market doesn't crash…they could even make more.  You know the stock market better than anyone on here….yet your prediction was wrong….so it is just as likely to be wrong for the next four years. But…I do agree..the longer it stays high the closer it is to crashing. Time will tell.

45 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

   It does make it easier for some on the right. Much easier to repeat the fake news mantra over and over than to admit you got sucked in by some guy on face book. 

Facebook LOL

This guy is an actual journalist.

4 minutes ago, bcking said:

I wasn't commenting on the CNN part, but glad you have no objections to my assessment.

 

"CNN is fake news" is an objectively false statement. It has published stories that are fake, but if that is the only requirement than literally every news channel is fake news.

 

More likely that phrase is just being repeated like a parrot repeats his master's words.

Wrong!

If Trump watched this song would the song be racist?

10 minutes ago, bcking said:

No offense, but that is spoken like somehow who likely knows very little about how to read scientific literature.

 

 

None taken. You watch CNN. Thats about all one needs to know.

I'll make it easier for some. CNN is fake news.  

The study in this thread is basically trash.

I found the graph that depicts the liberal analysis of the stock market. Makes sense.

1 hour ago, jg121783 said:

 

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/02/05/adam-schiff-russians-promoted-2nd-amendment-so-americans-would-kill-each-other/

 

He didn't think the Russians were such bad people back when he appeared on Russian state run television. To support FISA transparency none the less. If the left didn't have double standards they would have no standards at all. 

 

 

Little Schiff is just like Baghdad bob. Whatever he says....the majority of the time....the truth is the opposite. 

14 hours ago, mustang85635 said:

 

Leftie loonies at it again on “The View” 

Chuck Schumers sidekick Gillibrand (viewed by many as Dems 2020 candidate) on the show trying to save Chucks baby the visa lottery and going into full PC crazy mode on the topic of CHAIN MIGRATION. 

http://freebeacon.com/politics/gillibrand-chain-migration-phrase-racist-slur/

 

God help us all.

If chain migration was actually the slightest bit racist....you would think crying chuck Schumer and his sidekicks would want to end it? No?  

2 hours ago, Boiler said:

I do not find it that it happened that surprising, I find some people's attitude to it more worrying, this is a big deal.

So true. Anyone with half a brain knew that the leadership of the FBI was corrupt when they declined to prosecute Hillarys illegal activities. Now they are trying to cover up the leaderships attempt to bring down Trump. The mainstream media are are in collusion with the democrats and the corrupt leadership of the FBI. This is not over and as more and more facts of the corruption,deception and illegal activities of the democrats,fbi and the media emerge…..I expect at the least many will be fired and hopefully a bunch will end up in prison.