VJ Timeline Estimated Approval Calculation Method Updated

[kim&james 0]

I think the idea of received date and NOA date is great. I think it will give a more accurate timetable. The one thing most of us want to know is... "exactly how long is this process going to take me right now".

Captain Ewok, your graphs and timelines are the best I have found .. congrats and good job!

[Captain Ewok 1,859]

More graphs for the I-130's this time:

Nebraska:

Vermont:

California:

Texas:

[niceguy26 0]

I am VERY pleased about this!

My NOA1 took me a month from mailing, while it took many people 5-10 days for NOA1. My new Adjucated date moved from November 7th until November 21st, but I am very happy it goes off of the NOA1 date rather than "sent date" just because it shows more what USCIS is doing rather than other influences (post office etc..)

[Cécy 44]

I think like said before that we should just replace the sent date with the received date. Depending on the type of mail you use your petition will arrive 1 to 10 days after at a service center, and that makes quite a difference. I'm sure on the overall picture it balances out, but if we want to be precise the received date is more accurate. We can keep the NOA for informative purpose though.

[niceguy26 0]

One good note is while the sent-->NOA1 times seem to be increasing, it seems as though they were all trending smoothly over time. Basically this means that while not perfect the "sent" date may end up being reasonable to use for estimates. The reason in moving to the NOA1 date (or even received date) was that there was thought to be a great deal of variability in the sent--> NOA1 dates do to mailing. This appears not to be the case.

It was for mine because I mailed mine in June, and in June almost everyone was getting 10 day or less NOA1 (atleast when i clicked on "show similar timelines" and from what other people posted) I considered myself a June filer until my check was FINALLY cashed after exactly 1 month...

[Captain Ewok 1,859]

I have reverted the estimation method to the "sent on" date for the time being. I agree after seeing the sent-->NOA1 graphs above that this method provides a better estimation when compared to the "NOA1" date. A further improvement of the system would be to allow people to enter the "receive date" from the NOA into the timeline system. I will probably add this soon. Until then the data above suggests that there is only a 2-3 day amount of error when using the "sent by date". There was considerably less variability than I initially thought in the sent-->NOA1 times. I guess regular US mail takes 3-5 days which means that variability is quite low using that time versus using the NOA1 date which the USCIS has admitted to having problems with (late in printing notices).

[Captain Ewok 1,859]

I am VERY pleased about this!

My NOA1 took me a month from mailing, while it took many people 5-10 days for NOA1. My new Adjucated date moved from November 7th until November 21st, but I am very happy it goes off of the NOA1 date rather than "sent date" just because it shows more what USCIS is doing rather than other influences (post office etc..)

Looks like the Nov 7/8th date is the more accurate time. I have reverted the system. Sorry for the confusion. I am trying to make things as good as possible!

[Captain Ewok 1,859]

I have updated the following stat pages to show the new graphs :

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/index.ph...ge=k1historical

http://www.visajourney.com/forums/index.ph...ge=k3historical

I am thinking that this will be useful to people when then file so that they can get an idea on how long it will take the USCIS to print the NOA1. Especially important for K3'ers.

[niceguy26 0]

I am VERY pleased about this!

My NOA1 took me a month from mailing, while it took many people 5-10 days for NOA1. My new Adjucated date moved from November 7th until November 21st, but I am very happy it goes off of the NOA1 date rather than "sent date" just because it shows more what USCIS is doing rather than other influences (post office etc..)

Looks like the Nov 7/8th date is the more accurate time. I have reverted the system. Sorry for the confusion. I am trying to make things as good as possible!

I hope your right! lol. The sooner the better for me ofcourse...

I do firmly believe the "received date" would be the most accurate, but i guess its all not a huge differential anyways B)

[Captain Ewok 1,859]

yeah that date would be the best but we do not (yet) track that in the user input. I will probably add that in the future. Luckily the sent date seems to be pretty accurate from the data above.

[YanJeff 0]

SORRY TO DOUBLE POST!

But I would like to know.

Last night my adjudicated date was Oct. 6

This morning my adjudicated date was Sept 27. Now it is Oct 9.

But the average time from filing to NOA2 dropped from 124 days to 101 days.

How can the average time drop and my adjudicated date move farther out?

Oct. 9th will be 141 days using the sent date.

Can someone explain this? PLEASE!

[Chris Parker 10]

SORRY TO DOUBLE POST!

But I would like to know.

Last night my adjudicated date was Oct. 6

This morning my adjudicated date was Sept 27. Now it is Oct 9.

But the average time from filing to NOA2 dropped from 124 days to 101 days.

How can the average time drop and my adjudicated date move farther out?

Oct. 9th will be 141 days using the sent date.

Can someone explain this? PLEASE!

Probably because people started updating/correcting their timelines today at Cptn. Ewok's request, and although the estimate algorithm was ultimately left unchanged, the source data has changed and so your estimate has changed.

[Captain Ewok 1,859]

Yeah. I changed the algorithm and a lot of the graphs today. You may be looking at graphs that showed previously something slightly different. In any case things are more accurate now . They should be very similar to yesterday and previously. The methos that was in effect last night and this morning as now no longer being used.

[Captain Ewok 1,859]

SORRY TO DOUBLE POST!

But I would like to know.

Last night my adjudicated date was Oct. 6

This morning my adjudicated date was Sept 27. Now it is Oct 9.

But the average time from filing to NOA2 dropped from 124 days to 101 days.

How can the average time drop and my adjudicated date move farther out?

Oct. 9th will be 141 days using the sent date.

Can someone explain this? PLEASE!

Actually the current time from filing to NOA2 at the CSC for an I-129F is 122 days as of the current timelines:

[YanJeff 0]

Now average is 99 days CSC.

And my date moved farther again Oct. 10.

????