All-in time for F4 visa?

[RamonGomez 275]

I'm asking this mostly out of curiosity for my own information, but how does the F4 all-in process look? My understanding is:

 

• File I-130 for sibling with USCIS. The priority date is the data when USICS receives the I-130.
• USCIS approves the petition and then the petition sits around until the PD is current. Doesn't really matter how long USCIS approval takes since the PD won't be current for a long time.
• Suppose it takes 20 years for the priority date to become current. Does this mean that the I-130 is sent to NVC 20 years after is was first received by USCIS?
• The NVC process is then started (documents, interview, and holdups like administrative processing, visa issuance) which could take months to years.
• Pack and move.

 

Am I understanding this process correctly?

Edited 3 hours ago by RamonGomez

[appleblossom 5,193]

1 minute ago, RamonGomez said:

I'm asking this mostly out of curiosity for my own information, but how does the F4 all-in process look? My understanding is:

 

• File I-130 for sibling with USCIS. The priority date is the data when USICS receives the I-130
• USCIS approves the petition and then the petitions sits around until the PD is current. Doesn't really matter how long USCIS approval takes since the PD won't be current for a long time.
• Suppose it take 20 years for the priority date to become current. Does this mean that the I-130 is sent to NVC 20 years after is was first received by USCIS?
• The NVC process is then started (documents, interview, and holdups like administrative processing, visa issuance) which could take months to years.
• Pack and move.

 

Am I understanding this process correctly?

 

You are understanding it correctly, but the case can be sent to NVC when the PD is current on Table B (rather than Table A), so usually a few years before there is actually a visa available.

 

The NVC side of things is usually only a month or so (assuming you upload docs promptly) but then you have to wait until the PD becomes current on Table A once DQ'ed. Then when that happens, it's a case of waiting for an interview, and that can be anywhere between 2 months and 2+ years depending on the consulate. 

 

I don't think 20 years is realistic given the backlog that's increasing all the time unfortunately. I'd estimate at least 25 years until PD is current, so assume that and then be pleasantly surprised if things speed up. 

 

Best of luck. 

[milimelo 4,878]

Depends when it was approved. I had my sister's I-130 approved in two years - she's nowhere near the NVC process 13 years later.  You send it and forget it. But do keep up with change of address (I-865 form) with USCIS - I moved twice since petitioning and received address update confirmation after filing I-865 (though I have yet to submit an I-864). 

[RamonGomez 275]

3 minutes ago, appleblossom said:

 

You are understanding it correctly, but the case can be sent to NVC when the PD is current on Table B (rather than Table A), so usually a few years before there is actually a visa available.

 

The NVC side of things is usually only a month or so (assuming you upload docs promptly) but then you have to wait until the PD becomes current on Table A once DQ'ed. Then when that happens, it's a case of waiting for an interview, and that can be anywhere between 2 months and 2+ years depending on the consulate. 

 

I don't think 20 years is realistic given the backlog that's increasing all the time unfortunately. I'd estimate at least 25 years until PD is current, so assume that and then be pleasantly surprised if things speed up. 

 

Best of luck. 

 

The only thing I'm confused about it the 25 year figure. 

 

Right now the dates in the November Visa Bulleting are Mar 1 2009 (Table B) and Jan 8 2008 (Table A). That means someone who submitted an I-130 on or before Jan 8 2008 is eligible for an NVC interview. That's just under 18 years. Assume 1 year for the interview and visa issuance, so that's closer to 19 years? 

 

Of course that assumes wait times won't get longer in the future. This also means I-130s submitted March 1 2009 or earlier are eligible to go the NVC document process.

 

Again - just want to make sure I am understanding this, not looking to argue  

[milimelo 4,878]

Just now, RamonGomez said:

 

The only thing I'm confused about it the 25 year figure. 

 

Right now the dates in the November Visa Bulleting are Mar 1 2009 (Table B) and Jan 8 2008 (Table A). That means someone who submitted an I-130 on or before Jan 8 2008 is eligible for an NVC interview. That's just under 18 years. Assume 1 year for the interview and visa issuance, so that's closer to 19 years? 

 

Of course that assumes wait times won't get longer in the future. This also means I-130s submitted March 1 2009 or earlier are eligible to go the NVC document process.

 

Again - just want to make sure I am understanding this, not looking to argue  

You're understanding correctly, but what you're missing - the unknown to us x factor, is the line of submitted petitions since that 2009. The numerical limits on immigrant visas for preference categories are not something that changes. You have X number of them for F4 category, whoever is below the cutoff for issuance, gets in the line - and that line just keeps growing. Perhaps visa bulletin on state.gov would be of some help to get you some details?  Just google visa bulletin November 2025 and from there you can go back see prior months issuances. I think they also break it down by preference categories, then by country. 

[appleblossom 5,193]

6 minutes ago, RamonGomez said:

 

The only thing I'm confused about it the 25 year figure. 

 

Right now the dates in the November Visa Bulleting are Mar 1 2009 (Table B) and Jan 8 2008 (Table A). That means someone who submitted an I-130 on or before Jan 8 2008 is eligible for an NVC interview. That's just under 18 years. Assume 1 year for the interview and visa issuance, so that's closer to 19 years? 

 

Of course that assumes wait times won't get longer in the future. This also means I-130s submitted March 1 2009 or earlier are eligible to go the NVC document process.

 

Again - just want to make sure I am understanding this, not looking to argue  

 

You're understanding correctly, that people who are eligible for visas now applied 19ish years ago. But you can't assume anybody applying now will have the same wait, as it's not linear. 

 

For example, if you go back 5 years and look at the November 2020 bulletin, you'll see the date was Sept 2006. Meaning it's only moved forward 2.5 years in 5 years. If you go back 10 years to the November 2014 bulletin, the date was March 2003, so it's only moved forwards 6 years in the past decade. Basically, the backlog is growing all the time, so it doesn't move forward a year for each year of waiting.

[RamonGomez 275]

8 minutes ago, appleblossom said:

 

You're understanding correctly, that people who are eligible for visas now applied 19ish years ago. But you can't assume anybody applying now will have the same wait, as it's not linear. 

 

For example, if you go back 5 years and look at the November 2020 bulletin, you'll see the date was Sept 2006. Meaning it's only moved forward 2.5 years in 5 years. If you go back 10 years to the November 2014 bulletin, the date was March 2003, so it's only moved forwards 6 years in the past decade. Basically, the backlog is growing all the time, so it doesn't move forward a year for each year of waiting.

Interesting! I understand this perfectly now.

 

I would think it's possible to guestimate current wait times. For example (I'm making up numbers here), if you applied in 2009 maybe there were 500k petitions head of you, but if you apply today, there are 650k petitions ahead of you, so you'd estimate roughly a 30% longer wait than what is currently shown in the Visa Bulletin. I am greatly oversimplifying the situation, and there are a ton of future unknowns as well with immigration.

 

 

[appleblossom 5,193]

Just now, RamonGomez said:

Interesting! I understand this perfectly now.

 

I would think it's possible to guestimate current wait times. For example (I'm making up numbers here), if you applied in 2009 maybe there were 500k petitions head of you, but if you apply today, there are 650k petitions ahead of you, so you'd estimate roughly a 30% longer wait than what is currently shown in the Visa Bulletin. I am greatly oversimplifying the situation, and there are a ton of future unknowns as well with immigration.

 

 

 

Yep, that's a good way of doing it. But of course what you don't know is how many people will actually be eligible for visas out of those 500k petitions - don't forget any eligible derivative family members count as well, so for example if half of those people had a spouse then that adds another 250k to the visa quota. If a quarter have two children, that's another 250k, so the 500k petitions actually becomes 1 million visas. Only the sibling gets petitioned, but any derivatives also count towards the annual quota. 

 

And one big thing we don't know about is how Covid times will impact things. Visa issuance was paused then, which could mean less people bothered applying, or could mean the backlog grew exponentially. 

 

There are tons of stats issued by USCIS each year if you wanted to dig a bit deeper, but tbh I don't see the point. Just file and then try and forget about it, as said above if it's earlier the you expected then great, but I wouldn't have any expectations at this stage. 

 

Best of luck.