Number of cases processed hit new high!

[Bh_sarah 942]

50 minutes ago, ChiuA said:

I have been wondering though...I been seeing on FB people who are like from the 20th to the 30th (basically last 10 days) usually get stuck but now I also see day1 fillers being processed slower...really makes me wonder what is happening currently there HAS to be a factor that we don't know yet or? 

Did you happen to see a lot of first weeks filers left behind on FB? There are people waiting on all NOA1 dates (February at least). But the majority of those waiting are inside the last 2 weeks. Especially Feb 22 to 25. 

[ChiuA 108]

13 minutes ago, Bh_sarah said:

Did you happen to see a lot of first weeks filers left behind on FB? There are people waiting on all NOA1 dates (February at least). But the majority of those waiting are inside the last 2 weeks. Especially Feb 22 to 25. 

Just been seeing on FB a few NOA1 waiting on NOA2 from April saying they're April 1st and still waiting and they been seeing April 12 being approved o: But we do know the whole thing isnt in order lol so I am confused a bit myself but oof  22 to 25 is pretty rough I wonder if thats the dates where most people filled or the least? Really wish we would know more TT !

[Bh_sarah 942]

11 minutes ago, ChiuA said:

Just been seeing on FB a few NOA1 waiting on NOA2 from April saying they're April 1st and still waiting and they been seeing April 12 being approved o: But we do know the whole thing isnt in order lol so I am confused a bit myself but oof  22 to 25 is pretty rough I wonder if thats the dates where most people filled or the least? Really wish we would know more TT !

Oh, in April. I see. They started out approving February 7-8th NOA1s first, then soon after the earlier ones were approved too in the 1st major wave of activity. But once they slowed down with February (the wave was gone), then I saw more late February cases until untouched. Going by my own spreadsheet (not as precise as Obllak's), there are more late Feb cases untouched in absolute numbers and in percentage too. If you see, the second week of Feb has almost the same number of cases than the last week, and the number of untouched cases is way smaller.

 

Here's a good way to see it divided by weeks (thanks @mw & rg k1 for this model of graph).

Edited May 5, 2023 by Bh_sarah

[ChiuA 108]

1 minute ago, Bh_sarah said:

Oh, in April. I see. They started out approving February 7-8th NOA1s first, then soon after the earlier ones were approved too in the 1st major wave of activity. But once they slowed down with February (the wave was gone), then I saw more late February cases until untouched. Going by my own spreadsheet (not as precise as Obllak's), there are more late Feb cases untouched in absolute numbers and in percentage too. If you see, the second week of Feb has almost the same number of cases than the last week, and the number of untouched cases is way smaller.

 

Here's a good way to see it divided by weeks (thanks @mw & rg k1 for this model of graph).

First of all thank you very much for this! And this actually is super interesting to see considering this is for feb to see how many got approved and still pending seems like yeah the last week sadly is the 20% most likely that's gonna suffer 😕 I am assuming the range we see and what u said then so 22 - 30th basically depending on the month and how weekends fall huh...that's such a shame honestly and feels kinda sad   I wish for everyone a speedy approval! Did you get approved yet urself? I think u said u were feb or? :3 Hope u did! I just remember u were def earlier than we were XD ❤️ 

[Bh_sarah 942]

6 minutes ago, ChiuA said:

First of all thank you very much for this! And this actually is super interesting to see considering this is for feb to see how many got approved and still pending seems like yeah the last week sadly is the 20% most likely that's gonna suffer 😕 I am assuming the range we see and what u said then so 22 - 30th basically depending on the month and how weekends fall huh...that's such a shame honestly and feels kinda sad   I wish for everyone a speedy approval! Did you get approved yet urself? I think u said u were feb or? :3 Hope u did! I just remember u were def earlier than we were XD ❤️ 

As you can see there are 100+ people still waiting too from the earlier weeks so it's not definitive that you will get left behind if you file early, but I can say there is a slightly higher chance of this happening if you do. Build down to luck, so I think I consider any probability now.
Nah, I'm from February 22nd. I was left behind. Still waiting for an approval. But thank you ❤️ I've come to the conclusion we filed in the worst period we could ever have filed seeing the majority of March, April and other months are getting approved/will be approved in less than 400 days. I feel it won't be as long for you October filers!

Edited May 5, 2023 by Bh_sarah

[ChiuA 108]

6 minutes ago, Bh_sarah said:

As you can see there are 100+ people still waiting too from the earlier weeks so it's not definitive that you will get left behind if you file early, but I can say there is a slightly higher chance of this happening if you do. Build down to luck, so I think I consider any probability now.
Nah, I'm from February 22nd. I was left behind. Still waiting for an approval. But thank you ❤️ I've come to the conclusion we filed in the worst period we could ever have filed seeing the majority of March, April and other months are getting approved/will be approved in less than 400 days. I feel it won't be as long for you October filers!

Man I wish that you will be approved fast you have done a lot for us all ❤️ I am sure it must be so nerve wrecking though, waiting everyday, checking everyday TT I wish u seriously to be approved as fast as possible ❤️ ! I do think October at this rate will prolly come down to 12 months instead of 13 if they keep this speed up, at least the more likely earlier cases I guess..still it makes me sad seeing u and many others still waiting...we all want to be with our fiance/fiancee but at least make it fair and square TT 

[Bh_sarah 942]

6 minutes ago, ChiuA said:

Man I wish that you will be approved fast you have done a lot for us all ❤️ I am sure it must be so nerve wrecking though, waiting everyday, checking everyday TT I wish u seriously to be approved as fast as possible ❤️ ! I do think October at this rate will prolly come down to 12 months instead of 13 if they keep this speed up, at least the more likely earlier cases I guess..still it makes me sad seeing u and many others still waiting...we all want to be with our fiance/fiancee but at least make it fair and square TT 

Oh, no worries at all. I'd be doing the same even if this forum didn't exist because I am truly an over thinker haha and I feel the same for the January cases I know are still waiting. As much as I want my approval, I would love to see them approved before myself. They truly deserve it for enduring it so long.

[FilledesEtoiles 335]

2 hours ago, ChiuA said:

I have been wondering though...I been seeing on FB people who are like from the 20th to the 30th (basically last 10 days) usually get stuck but now I also see day1 fillers being processed slower...really makes me wonder what is happening currently there HAS to be a factor that we don't know yet or? 

It may be a bit early, but I am 1 April ... seeing so many people getting approved a lot further in the month ... 

[Oregonian97 48]

I was doing some analysis on the data to forecast when I could expect an approval and found some nice information that I thought would be worth sharing for positivity. 

 

I received NOA1 in early September. If USCIS continues at a rate of 1050/week approved/withdrawn cases per week for the next 4 weeks, as they have been the last few weeks (I exclude denials since most are instantaneous and aren't necessarily backlog removal), even if processing drops to 700/week after that, I am expecting a 70% likelihood of getting approved in September timeframe. Very similar to this if you received NOA1 around the same time as me.

 

We only need a few more good weeks before a large decrease in processing starts to have little impact on overall timing. My guess is processing will start to decelerate from current rates once the backlog is more caught up, but I wouldn't expect that to happen before the fall.

Edited May 5, 2023 by Oregonian97

[Vanessa D 0]

1 hour ago, Oregonian97 said:

I was doing some analysis on the data to forecast when I could expect an approval and found some nice information that I thought would be worth sharing for positivity. 

 

I received NOA1 in early September. If USCIS continues at a rate of 1050/week approved/withdrawn cases per week for the next 4 weeks, as they have been the last few weeks (I exclude denials since most are instantaneous and aren't necessarily backlog removal), even if processing drops to 700/week after that, I am expecting a 70% likelihood of getting approved in September timeframe. Very similar to this if you received NOA1 around the same time as me.

 

We only need a few more good weeks before a large decrease in processing starts to have little impact on overall timing. My guess is processing will start to decelerate from current rates once the backlog is more caught up, but I wouldn't expect that to happen before the fall.

September 9, 2022 NOA1 here! That’s gets me super excited! I did some math as well over the last week and think you’re right! Slow but steady decrease! 

[New Romantics 188]

Over 1300 😭🎉If someone had told me this in December I would have laughed in their face 🤣

[Obllak[BANNED] 186]

We got a new record for the weekly processing (1303 cases all together = on average 261 cases/day + expecting few extra tomorrow)! This week USCIS also approved the highest amount of cases compared to previous weeks (on average USCIS approved 226 cases per day this week, which is 21 cases more per day compared to previous week). Overall great beginning of May! If this trend continues, we can expect ~6000 processed cases in May (avg 261 cases/day * 23 [working days in May] = 6003 cases)

Edited May 6, 2023 by Obllak

[meladee 160]

2 hours ago, Obllak said:

We got a new record for the weekly processing (1303 cases all together = on average 261 cases/day + expecting few extra tomorrow)! This week USCIS also approved the highest amount of cases compared to previous weeks (on average USCIS approved 226 cases per day this week, which is 21 cases more per day compared to previous week). Overall great beginning of May! If this trend continues, we can expect ~6000 processed cases in May (avg 261 cases/day * 23 [working days in May] = 6003 cases)

🎉🎉🎉 So excititing! One small change though, May 29 is a US holiday so it's 22 working days in May.

[Oregonian97 48]

On 3/18/2023 at 4:38 PM, Oregonian97 said:

Plus we will probably get another 10 cases over the weekend. I am optimistic that we hit 1200/week in the near future. 

 

Also general question on the spread sheet tracker- for the estimate on remaining wait time, does it assume that the case that have already been rejected ahead of me are removed from the backlog? Or does it just look at the number of cases received ahead of my date? As I mentioned before, there is a good chunk rejected at the start when cases are submitted. Are these deducted from the backlog immediately? 

Not to brag, but I remember making this bold prediction in March about 1200 processed a week 🙏🏽 nice to see we are there 

[AndiB 661]

Remember people thinking Jan was a fluke and we wouldn't see such increases, now look at us  🎉

Hoping this means swifter approvals for those waiting in months already processed