Number of cases processed hit new high!

[GinoNiña 182]

44 minutes ago, AndiB said:

it's updated frequently on the spreadsheet??? Just look at estimate time tab. It's currently sitting between 13-15months I'd say for the bulk of people getting their NOA2 at the moment. They started march 2022 filers at 13months but slowly so it'll peak at around 14-14.5 months probably

 

Did you check out the metrics in lawfully web? I like the break down part but the total is way off. 

[AndiB 662]

3 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

Did you check out the metrics in lawfully web? I like the break down part but the total is way off. 

It's the same estimates others have come up with and so far has been pretty spot on. We are not sure why the USCIS totals are different to people analysing the data. Your NOA2 is so close you can go off current processing though, for further out it's more of a ???. They will most likely start approving April at 13 months and most with get approvals/RFEs at 13-14.5 months. That's based on where they are now and how many applications there are in a month (3-4k) + processing speed.

As I'm sure you've seen, people do exist in the tail with approvals 1.5-17 months though s not guaranteed to be 13-14.5, just likely

[GinoNiña 182]

Yeah from what I observed it can go both ways. But more than 50% of the time they neglecting the last week of the month and dive in to the following month. 
I remember rushing  to have  it send to them so I can be in march filer. Now I regret doing that. 

[Nikobe 129]

1 hour ago, GinoNiña said:

About this forward looking metrics you guys working on, any status? 

Estimated Wait Time tab on the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sN2bo1xZhs8oVU6-QDUdBXBX2_ci8_QJ0wiz59Gp6H4/edit#gid=1603169151

 

Just note that no month will ever go down to zero and usually they start new months when it says roughly 2-3 months.

For instance, May is at 4.0 months until processed according to the recent trend of 4,500 cases processed per month. This concerns 100% of the cases. They will start May in roughly 1-2 months in accordance with what I mentioned above.

[AndiB 662]

3 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

Yeah from what I observed it can go both ways. But more than 50% of the time they neglecting the last week of the month and dive in to the following month. 
I remember rushing  to have  it send to them so I can be in march filer. Now I regret doing that. 

I haven't looked super closely but what I have seen, generally once they're properly in a month the approvals are pretty evenly spread across the month so it's not just last people who get left, there are people at start and middle also who are in tail. You shouldn't be worse off for filing at the end, not any more than anyone else. Remember they don't go in order so it's not first 80% then last 20% by date order.

[GinoNiña 182]

2 minutes ago, AndiB said:

I haven't looked super closely but what I have seen, generally once they're properly in a month the approvals are pretty evenly spread across the month so it's not just last people who get left, there are people at start and middle also who are in tail. You shouldn't be worse off for filing at the end, not any more than anyone else. Remember they don't go in order so it's not first 80% then last 20% by date order.

You are correct. It’s not good being a negative person. Not after waiting for a year…..

[AndiB 662]

3 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

You are correct. It’s not good being a negative person. Not after waiting for a year…..

I understand your concern though. I wish we'd filed at start of a month now but I hope you hear quickly 🙏

[Bh_sarah 942]

This concern about filing at the start of the month/end of the month started concerning me now. Of course they don't go in order and there has been activity throughout the whole month, but seeing they started March after focusing more heavily on the first 2 weeks of February instead of the last 2 weeks worries me. For example, there's about 40-50% of cases pending on the first 2 weeks of February, and about 60-75% of cases pending on the last 2 weeks.

Hoping they move the heavy activity to the end of the month soon! They do seem to be starting the next months way faster then they usually did. It took aged for them to start December in my perception, but Jan, Feb and March were super fast, meaning they are indeed working faster but moving on to future cases faster as well (not a bad thing, just stating). 

[Tom.Jen 43]

42 minutes ago, Bh_sarah said:

This concern about filing at the start of the month/end of the month started concerning me now. Of course they don't go in order and there has been activity throughout the whole month, but seeing they started March after focusing more heavily on the first 2 weeks of February instead of the last 2 weeks worries me. For example, there's about 40-50% of cases pending on the first 2 weeks of February, and about 60-75% of cases pending on the last 2 weeks.

Hoping they move the heavy activity to the end of the month soon! They do seem to be starting the next months way faster then they usually did. It took aged for them to start December in my perception, but Jan, Feb and March were super fast, meaning they are indeed working faster but moving on to future cases faster as well (not a bad thing, just stating). 

 

I started taking screenshots daily of the "Total cases" from the spreadsheet. They started working on February after 3 weeks of processing January. They started working on March after 2 weeks of processing February.

[Bh_sarah 942]

2 minutes ago, Tom.Jen said:

 

I started taking screenshots daily of the "Total cases" from the spreadsheet. They started working on February after 3 weeks of processing January. They started working on March after 2 weeks of processing February.

Oh, nice idea! That confirms it. I guess March is a way bigger month than February in January (in terms of days too but there are about 1000/1200+ cases in March and the following months than there are in Jan/Feb), so maybe they rushed because of the number of cases waiting.

[Tom.Jen 43]

10 minutes ago, Bh_sarah said:

Oh, nice idea! That confirms it. I guess March is a way bigger month than February in January (in terms of days too but there are about 1000/1200+ cases in March and the following months than there are in Jan/Feb), so maybe they rushed because of the number of cases waiting.

I've been taking screenshots to try to find some kind of pattern in the "Total cases" percentage changes. So far it seems like the number ("% of processes cases") for the most active month (February right now) goes up around 3% every day.

 

They started working on February when January was at 46.55% (+18.41% touched).

They started working on March when February was at 34% (+15.48% touched).

 

I'm assuming March will take longer because there are many more cases, but *in my personal opinion* they should start working on April in about 3 weeks tops

Edited April 11, 2023 by Tom.Jen

[GinoNiña 182]

If all of us put our brains together, we can decipher Uscis processing procedures. 

[Ok-Mix 117]

1 hour ago, Bh_sarah said:

This concern about filing at the start of the month/end of the month started concerning me now. Of course they don't go in order and there has been activity throughout the whole month, but seeing they started March after focusing more heavily on the first 2 weeks of February instead of the last 2 weeks worries me. For example, there's about 40-50% of cases pending on the first 2 weeks of February, and about 60-75% of cases pending on the last 2 weeks.
 

This is starting to worry me too.  I am late December 2022, and I'm sure I'll feel slighted if they pass me up and jump into January 2023 full speed... 

[GinoNiña 182]

They already have bypassed you. They’re at 80% for January, almost 50% for February and have started for march. 

I don’t know what you can do at this point. I may be in the same boat as you in the couple months. I would like to find out though about what we can do if we fall into the last 20%. 
 

[meladee 160]

48 minutes ago, Bh_sarah said:

Oh, nice idea! That confirms it. I guess March is a way bigger month than February in January (in terms of days too but there are about 1000/1200+ cases in March and the following months than there are in Jan/Feb), so maybe they rushed because of the number of cases waiting.

I've also been keeping this daily record of the Lawfully data that shows the spread for case approvals, so you can see when Jan-Feb-Mar started processing.