Number of cases processed hit new high!

[AndiB 662]

10 minutes ago, FromMexico W/Love said:

Yeah based on when they processed in ~4 months, the standing backlog was 17-23k. 

so at current rate just under 2yrs to get to 'normal' 😭

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

41 minutes ago, AndiB said:

so at current rate just under 2yrs to get to 'normal' 😭

A little less than that. The good news is they "stopped the bleeding" and the wait times are not continuing to balloon. But someone filing today should expect a ~12 month wait time for their NOA2. I could see them trying to game the numbers and by October say, someone filling today has an 80% estimated wait time of 8 months or something along those lines. 

 

Also, I just looked at the numbers, from Q4 2020 back to Q1 2013, the average quarterly backlog was 21,161 with an average of 934 cases processed per week which had the processing time at just under 6 months. I pulled all the numbers off of the quarterly forms for that data. In 2013/2014 USCIS processed 18k cases a quarter to reduce the backlog. They were at like 34k cases and dropped it to 13k. 

 

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY2022_Q4.pdf

Edited March 26, 2023 by FromMexico W/Love

[meladee 160]

4 hours ago, ChiuA said:

About the processing stats is what I have also been wondering about, like what is going on there. About the processing times, I do think it'll reduce mid year at the current speed to maybe 13Months, I am assuming it hit 16 months because of the 2 months last year that were still very very slow....I am more concerned about the RFE situation. If someone can wait 2 months to fill out the RFE, that is where it'll get critical if everyone is gonna do it slow, it'll delay the time overall again correct?

I wonder what the standard deadline is for an RFE, I feel like I remember it being 30 days? This week they removed the flexibility to respond to the RFE up to 60 days past the due date, (which was added during COVID) so I think we'll see them start closing more cases that haven't recieved timely responses in the next couple months. https://www.uscis.gov/newsroom/alerts/uscis-announces-end-of-covid-related-flexibilities

[New Romantics 188]

1 hour ago, AndiB said:

so at current rate just under 2yrs to get to 'normal' 😭

To be fair, they have moved the goal posts by aiming for median so I think the new "normal" will be here faster. For this fiscal year all they have to do is reduce the median processing time to 9.1 months (25% better than last FY). I just can't math well enough to figure out when that will happen 🤣

[AndiB 662]

1 hour ago, New Romantics said:

To be fair, they have moved the goal posts by aiming for median so I think the new "normal" will be here faster. For this fiscal year all they have to do is reduce the median processing time to 9.1 months (25% better than last FY). I just can't math well enough to figure out when that will happen 🤣

ah I meant normal as in no longer having to take measure to reduce the time. Once the backlog is down to manageable they won't need to do this like 4-5month+ spread 

Main reason they have to take these measures is how big the backlog is from the fact they were processing slower than they were receiving

[Bh_sarah 942]

19 hours ago, Lynxyonok said:

In fairness, and it pains me to say this so much as it contradicts a lot of my past posts:

 

It's broken but it's working.

 

For example, try to become a citizen of Bermuda. Pro tip: Near impossible, even through marriage.

 

USCIS sucks hardcore. I'm not debating that.

 

But, unlike many other countries, it, at least, works.

 

@Lemonslice, thank You.

I may be assuming things and I might need to take a look on recent data, but I would take in consideration the fact that US is probably the country that most receives and processes immigration cases in the world, counting immigration visas + non-immigration visas and refugees. Not even talking about people abusing the system or trying to enter the country illegally.

 

It may take patience and it’s super bureaucratic (honestly like most federal agencies in the world) but the volume of cases they process every day is hard comprehend. So as much as I’d love for them to work faster and be more transparent about their process or even remove or review some policies, I agree they are indeed working and US does offer you a pathway to immigrate if you have a good reason to, unlike other countries.

[Lynxyonok 316]

10 hours ago, ChiuA said:

About the processing stats is what I have also been wondering about, like what is going on there. About the processing times, I do think it'll reduce mid year at the current speed to maybe 13Months, I am assuming it hit 16 months because of the 2 months last year that were still very very slow....I am more concerned about the RFE situation. If someone can wait 2 months to fill out the RFE, that is where it'll get critical if everyone is gonna do it slow, it'll delay the time overall again correct?

True, however as of 3/23/23, RFEs do have a time limit that's quite strict. I reckon a ton of denials are around the corner for everyone who chose to take their time (or simply had circumstances that were hard against them).

[ChiuA 108]

1 hour ago, Lynxyonok said:

True, however as of 3/23/23, RFEs do have a time limit that's quite strict. I reckon a ton of denials are around the corner for everyone who chose to take their time (or simply had circumstances that were hard against them).

Honestly that is the best decision of USCIS yet. I can honestly see that the whole process got delayed people people took their sweet butt time with the response of RFEs which WILL delay everyones time, because they also have to wait for a response, and then REOPEN the case later on, that's a lot more time trouble than when someone gets approved. Rough bless though they did give a time limit now. Cheers for that.  

[Quimat 154]

It’s crazy that when I see “newbies” asking on Facebook what the wait time is if they file this year they are receiving a response of a 16.5-18 month or longer wait for their NOA2 from other group members. Another complicated part of this process is the one million different answers one who knows nothing about this process can receive. A lot of the people in the groups have been waiting quite a while for their NOA1 and have become so negative about this process that they either spew wrong information or give people absolutely zero hope. I know it’s very frustrating for those who filed in 2021 and have seen no movement, but it’s so disheartening seeing constant negativity. I’ve yet again had to snooze some groups. 

[Lynxyonok 316]

2 hours ago, ChiuA said:

Honestly that is the best decision of USCIS yet. I can honestly see that the whole process got delayed people people took their sweet butt time with the response of RFEs which WILL delay everyones time, because they also have to wait for a response, and then REOPEN the case later on, that's a lot more time trouble than when someone gets approved. Rough bless though they did give a time limit now. Cheers for that.  

 

I'm going to use my subjective, personal experience here: if a petitioner were to take their time with an RFE for no legitimate reason reason, I would have expected the beneficiary to eat their (petitioner's) ear off through private messages...

 

Because no one wants to wait longer than they legitimately have to.

[New Romantics 188]

8 hours ago, Quimat said:

It’s crazy that when I see “newbies” asking on Facebook what the wait time is if they file this year they are receiving a response of a 16.5-18 month or longer wait for their NOA2 from other group members. Another complicated part of this process is the one million different answers one who knows nothing about this process can receive. A lot of the people in the groups have been waiting quite a while for their NOA1 and have become so negative about this process that they either spew wrong information or give people absolutely zero hope. I know it’s very frustrating for those who filed in 2021 and have seen no movement, but it’s so disheartening seeing constant negativity. I’ve yet again had to snooze some groups. 

Yep. Or when someone asks if they should file for k1 or cr1 and everyone is like "nooo cr1 is so much better!1!1" because it was 10.5 months and now suddenly jumped to 15! I feel for those that married just to file and now have to wait the same time with k1 anyway. Every person should decide for themselves what their best option would be

Edited March 27, 2023 by New Romantics

[ChiuA 108]

7 hours ago, Lynxyonok said:

 

I'm going to use my subjective, personal experience here: if a petitioner were to take their time with an RFE for no legitimate reason reason, I would have expected the beneficiary to eat their (petitioner's) ear off through private messages...

 

Because no one wants to wait longer than they legitimately have to.

I absolutely agree haha

[AndiB 662]

2 hours ago, New Romantics said:

Yep. Or when someone asks if they should file for k1 or cr1 and everyone is like "nooo cr1 is so much better!1!1" because it was 10.5 months and now suddenly jumped to 15! I feel for those that married just to file and now have to wait the same time with k1 anyway. Every person should decide for themselves what their best option would be

I agree. I do understand pushing the cr1 but people need to understand not everyone can just marry to file or by time they are able to marry it's an extra yr or similar. Cr1 wasn't really viable for me but people kept pressuring me to do that instead like it was simple.

 

I wish people who just share the advantages of cr1 over k1, highly suggest it and then let petitioner decide instead of harassing em. I've seen people asking for advice and just getting 'apply for cr1' over and over instead of an actual answer.

 

Will say although they take similar times, cr1 is cheaper and means no AOS drama and limbo (no drivers etc without an EAD/GC) so it's still better even if time wise they're similar

[AndiB 662]

9 hours ago, Lynxyonok said:

 

I'm going to use my subjective, personal experience here: if a petitioner were to take their time with an RFE for no legitimate reason reason, I would have expected the beneficiary to eat their (petitioner's) ear off through private messages...

 

Because no one wants to wait longer than they legitimately have to.

I've seen people with visas that are ready and they wait months for a letter and never follow up and when they finally do find out there's no letter, you just book.

 

How do you wait over a yr for NOA2 then just leave it in limbo at READY without asking why questions? 😂

[HC&DJXG 43]

19 minutes ago, AndiB said:

I agree. I do understand pushing the cr1 but people need to understand not everyone can just marry to file or by time they are able to marry it's an extra yr or similar. Cr1 wasn't really viable for me but people kept pressuring me to do that instead like it was simple.

 

I wish people who just share the advantages of cr1 over k1, highly suggest it and then let petitioner decide instead of harassing em. I've seen people asking for advice and just getting 'apply for cr1' over and over instead of an actual answer.

 

Will say although they take similar times, cr1 is cheaper and means no AOS drama and limbo (no drivers etc without an EAD/GC) so it's still better even if time wise they're similar

I totally agree with the statement. The pushy attitude for the cr1 is very annoying sometimes. We do not regret going the k1 route one bit. We had the time to discuss important matters and feel truly ready for marriage now and feeling pushed to marry would have probably stressed us out and made us regret the whole thing. We are also luckier than most people here because we live together abroad so while we want to move on and get the visa, we can afford to wait.

 

My point is every relationship is different and unilaterally pushing for the cr1 dismisses all of that.