EB3/EW3 Visa Retrogression

[SusieQQQ 11,585]

1 hour ago, theprogrammerguy said:

Yep, I'm in this case. Amazing, every single phase that could have delayed, did so, even taking two months to be able to pay the NVC fee.
 

Since the date didn't move from June to July, still listed as May 8th 2019, do you think it's likely to move fast at all, or to just stall out? I know it's not an exact science, but I'm at my wit's end.

 

1 hour ago, jcm122 said:

I've seen some comments that the visa bulletin prediction is that "other worker" will become current again in August. How accurate are these predictions?

No idea on either of these. It depends how close to the annual visa quota they are and what visa take-up in coming months is. The new fiscal year starts in October. 

[theprogrammerguy 4]

13 hours ago, SusieQQQ said:

 

No idea on either of these. It depends how close to the annual visa quota they are and what visa take-up in coming months is. The new fiscal year starts in October. 

My priority date is November 2020, and I just got my DQ email today. Would you say it's likely that it gets picked up by then, since it's DQed?

[SusieQQQ 11,585]

6 hours ago, theprogrammerguy said:

My priority date is November 2020, and I just got my DQ email today. Would you say it's likely that it gets picked up by then, since it's DQed?

I would love to be more optimistic for you, but DQ just means that they have finally approved all the paperwork, it doesn’t give any indication as to the wait for the interview. I personally don’t have any insight as to the likelihood of going current again in October- it really depends on how the monthly take up goes vs what the queue of EWs is. They only officially release the waitlist once a year for November (it was 18k in Nov 2021, having built up a backlog during covid like all categories). (Not sure if anyone has picked apart the monthly data to see what the queue is down to, although they could not know what the new applications offsetting the issuance is.)

Edited June 23, 2022 by SusieQQQ

[jan22 2,912]

On 6/23/2022 at 1:47 PM, SusieQQQ said:

I would love to be more optimistic for you, but DQ just means that they have finally approved all the paperwork, it doesn’t give any indication as to the wait for the interview. I personally don’t have any insight as to the likelihood of going current again in October- it really depends on how the monthly take up goes vs what the queue of EWs is. They only officially release the waitlist once a year for November (it was 18k in Nov 2021, having built up a backlog during covid like all categories). (Not sure if anyone has picked apart the monthly data to see what the queue is down to, although they could not know what the new applications offsetting the issuance is.)

It is highly unlikely (impossible?), given the numbers SusieQQQ provided, for the PD to become current before the end of this fiscal year (September 30, 2022).  The EW3 category is limited to a total of slightly less than 10,000 visa numbers a fiscal year -- a visa number is used for every EW3 who is petitioned for and each individual family member who immigrate with the beneficiary (i.e., a family of four -- 2 adults and 2 children -- use four of the available visa numbers). 

 

So, if there were 18,000 pending in November 2021 and the PD number retrogressed in May, they had essentially already used up or assigned/accounted for all visa numbers for Fiscal Year 2022 by May -- leaving at least half of the pending cases still pending. It Is unlikely tbe PD will be moving forward much, if at all, the rest of this FY.  They will monitor the numbers, but the only way the PD will move forward is if a number of those at the front of the queue choose to not pursue the visa, or do not qualify for one, or the number of their dependents is reduced for whatever reason.  This is likely to be a relatively small forward movement  (days or weeks) -- unless someone seriously mis-calculated or over-estimated current demand.  It's harder to predict right now, I believe, because of the COVID backlog and how that has impacted a family's plans.

 

They will continue to monitor each month, but by retrogressing the PD back to May 2019, it appears they believe they have enough in the queue already to get through the beginning months of the next fiscal year -- but how quickly they can move it forward remains to be seen. 

 

(This is an over-simplification of the process, but close enough to get a general understanding of what's going on, I think).

Edited June 25, 2022 by jan22

[SusieQQQ 11,585]

@jan22 one thing to bear in mind is some of those 18k are from quota limited countries so it’s not quite as bad as it looks, but the country 7% quota seems (?) top down over all EB so hard to disentangle for a specific sub category .. I think 

But in general your analysis seems sound 

 

 

Edited June 25, 2022 by SusieQQQ

[jan22 2,912]

5 hours ago, SusieQQQ said:

@jan22 one thing to bear in mind is some of those 18k are from quota limited countries so it’s not quite as bad as it looks, but the country 7% quota seems (?) top down over all EB so hard to disentangle for a specific sub category .. I think 

But in general your analysis seems sound 

 

 

True -- and that may well impact how quickly it progresses at the beginning of FY 2023.  But I don't believe it will have much impact for the rest of this fiscal year unless there's been a bad miscalculation along the way.

[jcm122 3]

On 6/23/2022 at 8:39 AM, SusieQQQ said:

I believe the EW classification is what indicates “other workers”, but you can confirm this with your employer’s lawyer. 
 

Unfortunately yes. A visa number needs to be available at the time it is actually requested by the consulate, which is after processing is completed. CEAC statuses are not always reliable and I’m not sure anyway what it “should” say in a retrogression situation. 

Thanks Susie. I'm curious as to what process the consulate would usually follow in a case like this. If there are no visa numbers available to complete processing, would they contact us to advise of this? In our case the consulate has retained our passports for 8 weeks post-interview with no indication of when the processing will be complete. Have reached out on numerous occasions and the response is the same - case is being reviewed and will be processed when complete. Would have thought if they cannot proceed they would communicate that and return our passports? Is it possible to "reserve" a visa number while processing, even if they don't issue it straight away? Maybe that's why they haven't said anything?

[SusieQQQ 11,585]

37 minutes ago, jcm122 said:

Thanks Susie. I'm curious as to what process the consulate would usually follow in a case like this. If there are no visa numbers available to complete processing, would they contact us to advise of this? In our case the consulate has retained our passports for 8 weeks post-interview with no indication of when the processing will be complete. Have reached out on numerous occasions and the response is the same - case is being reviewed and will be processed when complete. Would have thought if they cannot proceed they would communicate that and return our passports? Is it possible to "reserve" a visa number while processing, even if they don't issue it straight away? Maybe that's why they haven't said anything?

Perhaps you should specifically ask them about it, I don’t know why they are giving you a generic answer.

 

And no, if there is not a visa number available when requested, it’s not available. It’s not held in reserve if it’s not available.  

[Boiler 43,676]

34 minutes ago, jcm122 said:

Thanks Susie. I'm curious as to what process the consulate would usually follow in a case like this. If there are no visa numbers available to complete processing, would they contact us to advise of this? In our case the consulate has retained our passports for 8 weeks post-interview with no indication of when the processing will be complete. Have reached out on numerous occasions and the response is the same - case is being reviewed and will be processed when complete. Would have thought if they cannot proceed they would communicate that and return our passports? Is it possible to "reserve" a visa number while processing, even if they don't issue it straight away? Maybe that's why they haven't said anything?

They have probably chucked it in a pile waiting visa number movement and you are getting standard go away messages.

 

Remember you care about this, them not so much.

 

You can ask for your Passports back if you need them.

[jcm122 3]

On 6/26/2022 at 3:30 AM, jan22 said:

It is highly unlikely (impossible?), given the numbers SusieQQQ provided, for the PD to become current before the end of this fiscal year (September 30, 2022).  The EW3 category is limited to a total of slightly less than 10,000 visa numbers a fiscal year -- a visa number is used for every EW3 who is petitioned for and each individual family member who immigrate with the beneficiary (i.e., a family of four -- 2 adults and 2 children -- use four of the available visa numbers). 

 

So, if there were 18,000 pending in November 2021 and the PD number retrogressed in May, they had essentially already used up or assigned/accounted for all visa numbers for Fiscal Year 2022 by May -- leaving at least half of the pending cases still pending. It Is unlikely tbe PD will be moving forward much, if at all, the rest of this FY.  They will monitor the numbers, but the only way the PD will move forward is if a number of those at the front of the queue choose to not pursue the visa, or do not qualify for one, or the number of their dependents is reduced for whatever reason.  This is likely to be a relatively small forward movement  (days or weeks) -- unless someone seriously mis-calculated or over-estimated current demand.  It's harder to predict right now, I believe, because of the COVID backlog and how that has impacted a family's plans.

 

They will continue to monitor each month, but by retrogressing the PD back to May 2019, it appears they believe they have enough in the queue already to get through the beginning months of the next fiscal year -- but how quickly they can move it forward remains to be seen. 

 

(This is an over-simplification of the process, but close enough to get a general understanding of what's going on, I think).

 

On 6/26/2022 at 6:10 AM, SusieQQQ said:

@jan22 one thing to bear in mind is some of those 18k are from quota limited countries so it’s not quite as bad as it looks, but the country 7% quota seems (?) top down over all EB so hard to disentangle for a specific sub category .. I think 

But in general your analysis seems sound 

 

 

 

On 6/26/2022 at 12:37 PM, Boiler said:

They have probably chucked it in a pile waiting visa number movement and you are getting standard go away messages.

 

Remember you care about this, them not so much.

 

You can ask for your Passports back if you need them.

Any idea when the October 2022 Visa Bulletin is due to be published?

Would be curious to see if the Priority Date for final action moves from the previously published date of 18 May 2019 for EB3 - Other Workers (which it has now been since May 2022 bulletin with no change yet).

Has anyone see this category retrogressed in the past? How quickly did the dates move forward?

Thanks!

[theprogrammerguy 4]

3 hours ago, jcm122 said:

 

 

Any idea when the October 2022 Visa Bulletin is due to be published?

Would be curious to see if the Priority Date for final action moves from the previously published date of 18 May 2019 for EB3 - Other Workers (which it has now been since May 2022 bulletin with no change yet).

Has anyone see this category retrogressed in the past? How quickly did the dates move forward?

Thanks!

The Visa Bulletin is likely coming any day between Sep. 10th and Sep. 15th. I check https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin.html every day.

 

The category HAS retrogressed in the past, but if I recall correctly, never as aggressively (as much) as it did now. There is no way to predict when it will be current. The best advice I can give you would be something like "be patient, enjoy your day-to-day", that's what I'm trying to do to not get taken over by anxiety lol.

 

It's coming, all we have to do is relax and not go crazy.

[jcm122 3]

18 hours ago, theprogrammerguy said:

The Visa Bulletin is likely coming any day between Sep. 10th and Sep. 15th. I check https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin.html every day.

 

The category HAS retrogressed in the past, but if I recall correctly, never as aggressively (as much) as it did now. There is no way to predict when it will be current. The best advice I can give you would be something like "be patient, enjoy your day-to-day", that's what I'm trying to do to not get taken over by anxiety lol.

 

It's coming, all we have to do is relax and not go crazy.

Stay sane. Excellent advice. It'll come eventually (it has to, right?).

Yup, I keep an eye on the visa bulletin too. Are you still waiting to have your interview?

[theprogrammerguy 4]

5 hours ago, jcm122 said:

Stay sane. Excellent advice. It'll come eventually (it has to, right?).

Yup, I keep an eye on the visa bulletin too. Are you still waiting to have your interview?

Yeah, our case got DQed just as the regression hit, so we never got the interview scheduled unfortunately. But it's ok, nothing we can do, right?

[jcm122 3]

On 9/1/2022 at 12:34 AM, theprogrammerguy said:

Yeah, our case got DQed just as the regression hit, so we never got the interview scheduled unfortunately. But it's ok, nothing we can do, right?

Yup, guess that's the way it goes.

I did find an interesting set of stats on the State Department's site that shows how the EW (Other Workers) retrogression has been handled for the the last 30 years. Check it out https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/employment-cut-off-dates/Employment_Worldwide_online_FY21.pdf

Maybe there's still hope that the dates go current faster than we think come October...

[jcm122 3]

October visa bulletin is out. Cut off date is now 01-Jun-20. My priority date is 24-Jun-20 so that’s a real pain. Here’s hoping there’s further movement in the November visa bulletin.