Utah online marriage vs K1, CR1, ....

[top_secret 2,100]

This website does some interesting analysis.  It's guestimating potential backlogs by comparing actual numbers published by the State Department post-ronapocalipsis to actual historical averages pre-ronapocalipsis.

 

https://visawhen.com/consulates/manila/cr1ir1
https://visawhen.com/consulates/manila/k1

 

It looks like K1's started picking up around October 2021 after a very long period of minimal interviews and they still aren't interviewing even at their historical average rate.

CR/IR1's peaked last year and likely cleared the backlog entirely at that time.  Though since October 2021 their rates have fallen off and it is unclear if they are just fewer cases now that the backlog is cleared or if they are getting delayed as they resume interviews in other categories.

[GinoNiña 177]

18 hours ago, Adventine said:

 

Let's imagine that another worldwide pandemic hits and the embassy shuts down processing again. This is unlikely, but then, nobody expected COVID to have the impact that it did.

 

Most likely, the embassy will again prioritize spousal cases over fiance cases.

So you are saying that now manila is no longer in lockdown,  K1 will get process more than cr1? K1 interviews will get prioritized again and cr1 would go back to normal. If you correct on this then I will continue waiting for my turn on K1 and cancel my planned for switching to cr1. Can you tell me where are you getting all this information from?

 

I already received my NOA1 for K1 this March 2022. Because K1 backlogs, Im planning on using cr1 instead. Im going to use Utah online marriage. Im going back there this August. And I was told that once I get married, my I-129F application will get voided and no longer usable. 

[GinoNiña 177]

17 minutes ago, top_secret said:

This website does some interesting analysis.  It's guestimating potential backlogs by comparing actual numbers published by the State Department post-ronapocalipsis to actual historical averages pre-ronapocalipsis.

 

https://visawhen.com/consulates/manila/cr1ir1
https://visawhen.com/consulates/manila/k1

 

It looks like K1's started picking up around October 2021 after a very long period of minimal interviews and they still aren't interviewing even at their historical average rate.

CR/IR1's peaked last year and likely cleared the backlog entirely at that time.  Though since October 2021 their rates have fallen off and it is unclear if they are just fewer cases now that the backlog is cleared or if they are getting delayed as they resume interviews in other categories.

Yeah! Its hard to make prediction on what theyŕe going to do next. Somebody mention here that the reason why they did lots of spousal visas and neglect K1 is because of the pandemic. Not sure where he got that information from.  

He also mention that now manila is almost back to normal, they would prioritized K1 again over spouse visa. 

 

Im split between the two visas. I received my noa1 for k1 this march 2022. And Im going back there again this August. I have a chance to switch and use cr1 instead. But once I get married, my I-129f will get voided and be in cr1 pool all over again. And if K1 will get back in business, then Im stuck  in spouse visa category with longer waiting period.

Its a tough decision!!!

[RO_AH 1,623]

1 hour ago, GinoNiña said:

K1 interviews will get prioritized again and cr1 would go back to normal.

K1's were never prioritized.

 

1 hour ago, GinoNiña said:

I already received my NOA1 for K1 this March 2022. Because K1 backlogs, Im planning on using cr1 instead. Im going to use Utah online marriage. Im going back there this August. And I was told that once I get married, my I-129F application will get voided and no longer usable.

Yes, the I-129F would be voided if you file for CR-1. You would be back at the back of the line. for a visa that already takes longer. If you do go back in August, you are better off just getting married at that time if you change to CR-1. If you did an online wedding you still need to be together in person before filing CR-1. The reason a lot of people went the Utah online route was because when PI was locked down only spouses could travel there. Online wedding > Go see spouse now that you are allowed > File CR-1. I see no benefit in you going that route.

[RO_AH 1,623]

1 hour ago, GinoNiña said:

Somebody mention here that the reason why they did lots of spousal visas and neglect K1 is because of the pandemic. Not sure where he got that information from.

I was one who mentioned it as well as others...Where did I get the info??? It's public record. It was no secret.

6 hours ago, RO_AH said:

In the beginning of the Pandemic all visa processing stopped. The embassy was shut down to all but emergency services. When it resumed it was on a limited basis with reduced staffing. AT THAT TIME spousal visa approvals went way up because family based visa's were given priority and virtually no K1's (student, tourist, etc) were processed. Once again, K1 is NOT a family based visa.

This was a US policy that was for all Embassy's

1 hour ago, GinoNiña said:

they would prioritized K1 again over spouse visa. 

Where do you keep coming up with this? There has never been a time where K-1s were prioritized over CR-1. CR-1 is just a longer process because you are completing 2 steps at once. Fiance is preferred by some because you only complete the first step and have to complete the second step here in USA. This makes the K1 faster (except for the pandemic)

 

If I were you I would stick with K1 ONLY because you already have NOA. I still always believe CR-1 is a better choice but that requires that you start all over from scratch. Sure there is a backlog of K1's but there is also a time period where very few K1 apps came in because people could not get there to meet in person due to lock downs which is required for K1. If speed is your goal, which you said that it is, I believe (MY OPINION) that you will complete the K1 you currently have faster than abandoning it and filing a CR-1 after your trip in August.

Edited April 16, 2022 by RO_AH

[Redro 4,601]

1 hour ago, GinoNiña said:

Yeah! Its hard to make prediction on what theyŕe going to do next. Somebody mention here that the reason why they did lots of spousal visas and neglect K1 is because of the pandemic. Not sure where he got that information from.  

He also mention that now manila is almost back to normal, they would prioritized K1 again over spouse visa. 

I suggested it in your other thread. I will suggest it again. 

Read the old posts here in the Philippines forum. Read posts from 2020- now. 

You will understand what was happening at USEM. And if you keep reading posts in this forum you'll understand what the current situation is like. 

The data posted on VJ is helpful but it doesn't tell the full story. 

 

 

[GinoNiña 177]

1 hour ago, RO_AH said:

I was one who mentioned it as well as others...Where did I get the info??? It's public record. It was no secret.

This was a US policy that was for all Embassy's

Where do you keep coming up with this? There has never been a time where K-1s were prioritized over CR-1. CR-1 is just a longer process because you are completing 2 steps at once. Fiance is preferred by some because you only complete the first step and have to complete the second step here in USA. This makes the K1 faster (except for the pandemic)

 

If I were you I would stick with K1 ONLY because you already have NOA. I still always believe CR-1 is a better choice but that requires that you start all over from scratch. Sure there is a backlog of K1's but there is also a time period where very few K1 apps came in because people could not get there to meet in person due to lock downs which is required for K1. If speed is your goal, which you said that it is, I believe (MY OPINION) that you will complete the K1 you currently have faster than abandoning it and filing a CR-1 after your trip in August.

There has never been a time where K-1s were prioritized over CR-1. CR-1 is just a longer process because you are completing 2 steps at once. Now its coming clearer. 

 

¨I still always believe CR-1 is a better choice but that requires that you start all over from scratch.¨Yeah! by August my i-129F has already accumulated 5 months into the system whereas if we switched to cr1,  we would  start all over again this coming August. We would be back at the end of the line again. I read somewhere about cr1, she still need to get interviewed as well. Its not automatic that she gets her cr1 visa. And she needs to get a new philippine passport with her new last name on it. I heard it took her awhile to get one. Plus I already spent the fiancee fee. 

 

¨I believe (MY OPINION) that you will complete the K1 you currently have faster than abandoning it and filing a CR-1 after your trip in August.¨ Good one. I like it. 

[GinoNiña 177]

2 hours ago, ROK2USA said:

I suggested it in your other thread. I will suggest it again. 

Read the old posts here in the Philippines forum. Read posts from 2020- now. 

You will understand what was happening at USEM. And if you keep reading posts in this forum you'll understand what the current situation is like. 

The data posted on VJ is helpful but it doesn't tell the full story. 

 

 

I searched posts with the tittle 2020. non found. can you send me link?

 

[Redro 4,601]

13 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

There has never been a time where K-1s were prioritized over CR-1. CR-1 is just a longer process because you are completing 2 steps at once. Now its coming clearer. 

 

¨I still always believe CR-1 is a better choice but that requires that you start all over from scratch.¨Yeah! by August my i-129F has already accumulated 5 months into the system whereas if we switched to cr1,  we would  start all over again this coming August. We would be back at the end of the line again. I read somewhere about cr1, she still need to get interviewed as well. Its not automatic that she gets her cr1 visa. And she needs to get a new philippine passport with her new last name on it. I heard it took her awhile to get one. Plus I already spent the fiancee fee. 

 

¨I believe (MY OPINION) that you will complete the K1 you currently have faster than abandoning it and filing a CR-1 after your trip in August.¨ Good one. I like it. 

Just want to add... 

As your fiancee has a child. If you get married you will have to file two petitions. One for her and one for the step-child. You will also have to try to keep the two petitions together... some people have issues where one petition is approved a lot sooner than the other and then some hiccups around documents needed at NVC stage. 

 

I'm getting the impression you really want to stick with the K1 visa. No one can tell you it will be faster than the CR1/IR1. Some I-130s are approved very quickly but others can take over a year. The good thing about the K1 is they have very little variation at the USCIS stage. The issue is after NOA2 as each consulate has a different backlog. 

[Redro 4,601]

3 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

I searched posts with the tittle 2020. non found. can you send me link?

 

They wouldn't be titled "2020"... I'm suggesting you read old posts in the Philippines section. 

Go back to page 41 in this forum and you will see posts from April 2021.

Here is a post from p.54

Haven't read it but maybe you'll find it informative. 

 

[GinoNiña 177]

1 minute ago, ROK2USA said:

Just want to add... 

As your fiancee has a child. If you get married you will have to file two petitions. One for her and one for the step-child. You will also have to try to keep the two petitions together... some people have issues where one petition is approved a lot sooner than the other and then some hiccups around documents needed at NVC stage. 

 

I'm getting the impression you really want to stick with the K1 visa. No one can tell you it will be faster than the CR1/IR1. Some I-130s are approved very quickly but others can take over a year. The good thing about the K1 is they have very little variation at the USCIS stage. The issue is after NOA2 as each consulate has a different backlog. 

 ¨The issue is after NOA2 as each consulate has a different backlog.¨ I suspect this is what causing the delay as well. 

 ¨The good thing about the K1 is they have very little variation at the USCIS stage¨ what do you mean with this?

She has a 13 years old son. 

[RO_AH 1,623]

26 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

. Its not automatic that she gets her cr1 visa.

Nothing is automatic with any visa. Spouse shows a bigger commitment in the relationship so I feel a little better chances of approval, however both have a high success rate in Philippines.

[GinoNiña 177]

3 minutes ago, ROK2USA said:

They wouldn't be titled "2020"... I'm suggesting you read old posts in the Philippines section. 

Go back to page 41 in this forum and you will see posts from April 2021.

Here is a post from p.54

Haven't read it but maybe you'll find it informative. 

 

Big Thank you to you ROK2USA. Unfortunately, Im timing out, Im getting sleepy now, unable to think anymore. Its 9:50 pm here in pacific northwest. Catch you later. Thanks for all the information.

[Redro 4,601]

3 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

 ¨The issue is after NOA2 as each consulate has a different backlog.¨ I suspect this is what causing the delay as well. 

 ¨The good thing about the K1 is they have very little variation at the USCIS stage¨ what do you mean with this?

She has a 13 years old son. 

K1's all go to the California processing center. 

Right now, they are working on I-129Fs submitted in March 2021 and I think April 2021.

So, if things stay the same. You should receive your NOA2 from K1 March, 2022 or April 2022. Unless they speed up processing times.  

But, processing times have slowed down in recent months so it might take longer. 

 

I-130s go to different processing centers. 

Vermont, Nebraska, California, Potomac and Texas (I believe some also go to the National Benefits Center).

The processing times are widely different. You can get your NOA2 from anywhere between 2 months to over a year. And you won't know where your petition will be sent until you receive your NOA1. But, sometimes they'll transfer the case and you won't know until 6-8 months after you filed the I-130. 

Switching to IR1/CR1 is a gamble because it could go faster but you should probably aim for 1.5 to 2 years from I-130 date if you want a conservative guesstimate. 

 

[GinoNiña 177]

7 hours ago, ROK2USA said:

K1's all go to the California processing center. 

Right now, they are working on I-129Fs submitted in March 2021 and I think April 2021.

So, if things stay the same. You should receive your NOA2 from K1 March, 2022 or April 2022. Unless they speed up processing times.  

But, processing times have slowed down in recent months so it might take longer. 

 

I-130s go to different processing centers. 

Vermont, Nebraska, California, Potomac and Texas (I believe some also go to the National Benefits Center).

The processing times are widely different. You can get your NOA2 from anywhere between 2 months to over a year. And you won't know where your petition will be sent until you receive your NOA1. But, sometimes they'll transfer the case and you won't know until 6-8 months after you filed the I-130. 

Switching to IR1/CR1 is a gamble because it could go faster but you should probably aim for 1.5 to 2 years from I-130 date if you want a conservative guesstimate. 

 

You’re awesome, I believed you.  Yes! It’s more than a gamble for me and her. It’s like a life and death. The very reason why I started investing my time on cr1 is because of that data VJ puts out. It’s very convincing. And I thought it would make a lot of sense.