Anecdotal accuracy of visawhen.com

[OfficialGreenT 0]

Dear people of VisaJourney,

 

My wife and I are at the NVC stage of our IR1 visa application. I recently discovered visawhen.com, and I've been keeping an eye on NVC processing time with it. Does anyone here have any anectodal experience with using it to predict when you will be DQ'ed? Just wondering how accurate it's proven to be!

 

Cheers,

 

T

[Boiler 45,661]

Like the data here you can only look backwards

 

If they have found a way of looking forwards I have some lottery numbers I need help on

[top_secret 2,447]

1 hour ago, OfficialGreenT said:

My wife and I are at the NVC stage of our IR1 visa application. I recently discovered visawhen.com, and I've been keeping an eye on NVC processing time with it. Does anyone here have any anectodal experience with using it to predict when you will be DQ'ed? Just wondering how accurate it's proven to be!

https://visawhen.com is scraping it's data from https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/immigrate/nvc-timeframes.html which should be more or less accurate for people currently being reviewed.  It couldn't predict the future since the wait times seem to change allot, but it could give you a fairly reasonable idea if you were coming up in the next week or so.

[Saqib-s 188]

as above, visawhen is a great tool for looking at historic trend but there is no reliable way to predict future processing times. 

 

If you want to keep up to date with reviews, monitor the thread for the the month currently being reviewed (September 2021) submissions thread in this forum. In there people who have submitted in Sep will be posting when they have been reviewed and had feedback (successful DQ or unsuccessful RFE). This will give you an idea of the speed of the processing, and you will see how has hazard and unpredictable it all is. 

 

Wish you all the best of luck. 

[OfficialGreenT 0]

Thanks for the replies, people! I guess I should clarify my question a bit. I'm aware of the fact that visawhen.com uses historical data, but my thinking was that if anecdotally for a lot of people their submission date matches the date up to which NVC has processed at the time they get DQ'ed, one could use that to somewhat predict when one's own DQ is coming. This would simply mean that NVC's data is pretty accurate, contrary to (in my own experience) the USCIS processing time estimates.

[Saqib-s 188]

2 hours ago, OfficialGreenT said:

Thanks for the replies, people! I guess I should clarify my question a bit. I'm aware of the fact that visawhen.com uses historical data, but my thinking was that if anecdotally for a lot of people their submission date matches the date up to which NVC has processed at the time they get DQ'ed, one could use that to somewhat predict when one's own DQ is coming. This would simply mean that NVC's data is pretty accurate, contrary to (in my own experience) the USCIS processing time estimates.

I'm not sure you can make a comparison between the two. My understanding is that USCIS give you a timeframe of how long your case will be, so a prediction of how long it will take. 
 

The NVC on the other hand tell you where the backlog is, so which case they are currently processing.  
 

One is a estimate (in the  future) and the other a current working tally of which case they are working on (in the past). 
 

When we submitted the NVC backlog was less than 60 days, and as time has passed its grown, it is now over 3 months still waiting. You have no way to accurately predict if the backlog will increase or decrease.