Gallup Election 2020 Coverage

[Dashinka 23,234]

Gallup Election 2020 Coverage

 

Most Say They Are Better Off Now Than Four Years Ago

During his presidential campaign in 1980, Ronald Reagan asked Americans, "Are you better off today than you were four years ago?" Since then, this question has served as a key standard that sitting presidents running for reelection have been held to.

Gallup's most recent survey found a clear majority of registered voters (56%) saying they are better off now than they were four years ago, while 32% said they are worse off.

 

 

https://news.gallup.com/opinion/gallup/321650/gallup-election-2020-coverage.aspx

[Dashinka 23,234]

Interesting a poll showing Trump down by 15+ is all the news, but a poll like this showing a record positive feeling among folks is relegated to the trash heap.  

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

21 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

Interesting a poll showing Trump down by 15+ is all the news, but a poll like this showing a record positive feeling among folks is relegated to the trash heap.  

Not good for confirmation bias. These people are conveniently setting up for worse deranged behavior in the event of a Trump re-election. 

[TBoneTX 43,043]

And not to be discounted is the possibility of a Trumpslide, at a level not seen since Reagan's re-election.

[Dashinka 23,234]

So Biden is questioning other’s memory?  I heard he is running for the Senate.

 

Biden questions ‘memory’ of voters in poll who say they’re better off now than 4 years ago

 

During an interview with Cincinnati's WKRC Local 12 on Monday, reporter Kyle Inskeep cited the Gallup poll and asked the Democratic nominee, "Why should people who feel that they're better off today under a Trump administration vote for you?"

"Well if they think that, they probably shouldn't," Biden responded.

 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-knocks-the-56-of-voters-who-say-theyre-better-off-now-than-4-years-ago-their-memory-isnt-very-good

 

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

32 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

So Biden is questioning other’s memory?  I heard he is running for the Senate.

 

Biden questions ‘memory’ of voters in poll who say they’re better off now than 4 years ago

 

During an interview with Cincinnati's WKRC Local 12 on Monday, reporter Kyle Inskeep cited the Gallup poll and asked the Democratic nominee, "Why should people who feel that they're better off today under a Trump administration vote for you?"

"Well if they think that, they probably shouldn't," Biden responded.

 

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-knocks-the-56-of-voters-who-say-theyre-better-off-now-than-4-years-ago-their-memory-isnt-very-good

 

Spreading misery is indeed the theme of Biden's Senate campaign against that mormon guy.

[Dashinka 23,234]

On 10/13/2020 at 7:43 AM, Burnt Reynolds said:

Spreading misery is indeed the theme of Biden's Senate campaign against that mormon guy.

Yes, the Democrats are old hands at spreading misery, and dividing the country and its people.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

On 10/13/2020 at 7:06 AM, Dashinka said:

"...they probably shouldn't [vote for me]," Biden responded.

 

Cannot think of anything Biden has said in the past sis months that I agree with more than this.

[TBoneTX 43,043]

6 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

Cannot think of anything Biden has said in the past sis months that I agree with more than this.

And I couldn't disagree with you less.

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

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The Pollster Who Thinks Trump Is Ahead

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If you are a firm believer only in polling averages, this isn’t particularly meaningful, but if you are familiar with Trafalgar’s successes in 2016, when (unlike other pollsters) it had Trump leading in Michigan and Pennsylvania and, in 2018, Ron DeSantis winning his gubernatorial race, it is notable. Regardless, it’s worth knowing why one pollster is departing from nearly everyone else.

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In the 2016 primaries, they started putting out some of their own polls. “Our polls ended up being the best ones in South Carolina and Georgia,” Cahaly says. “So we started studying what it was that made those so different.”

Then there was the breakthrough in the 2016 general election. “We ended up having an incredible year,” he says. “I mean, we got Pennsylvania right. We got Michigan right. We had the best poll in five of the battleground states in 2016. And I actually predicted 306 to 232 on the electoral college. And we went from doing a little bit of polling on the side to that [being] our primary business in about 24 hours. And since then, that’s what we’ve been doing.”

 

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Much of Trafalgar’s approach focuses on accounting for the so-called social-desirability bias. As Cahaly puts it, that’s when a respondent gives you “an answer that is designed to make the person asking the question be less judgmental of the person who answers it.” Cahaly notes that this phenomenon showed up as long ago as the 1980s, in the so-called Bradley effect, when the African-American mayor of Los Angeles, Tom Bradley, underperformed his polling in a gubernatorial race. It has been a hallmark of the Trump era and is one reason other pollsters missed the impending victory of Ron DeSantis over Andrew Gillum in the 2018 Florida gubernatorial race.

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One is the number of questions on its surveys. “I don’t believe in long questionnaires,” Cahaly says. “I think when you’re calling up Mom or Dad on a school night, and they’re trying to get the kids dinner and get them to bed, and that phone rings at seven o’clock — and they’re supposed to stop what they’re doing and take a 25- to 30-question poll? No way.”

Why does that matter? “You end up disproportionately representing the people who will like to talk about politics, which is going to skew toward the very, very conservative and the very, very liberal and the very, very bored, “Cahaly explains. “And the kind of people that win elections are the people in the middle. So I think they miss people in the middle when they do things that way.”

 

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This goes back to the social-desirability bias. People with opinions that are unpopular “don’t want to be judged by somebody on the phone that they don’t know.” If this was always true, it’s particularly so now: “They’ve seen all this stuff of people being shamed for their opinion, people losing their jobs.”

So Trafalgar mixes up how it contacts people, and especially wants respondents to feel safe in responding. “We use collection methods of live calls, auto calls, texts, emails, and a couple that we call our proprietary digital technology that we don’t explain, but it’s also digital,” Cahaly says. The point, he continues, is to “really push the anonymous part — this is your anonymous say-so.”

Another factor, is that “conservatives are less likely to participate in polls in general,” he says. “We see a five-to-one refusal rate among conservatives.” That means “you’ve got to work very hard to get a fair representation of conservatives, when you do any kind of a survey.”

 

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/the-pollster-who-thinks-trump-is-ahead/

 

Pretty clear the polls flying around are unreliable. We'll see if Trafalgar is correct again.

[Dashinka 23,234]

Trump Vs. Biden Race Tightens, Suddenly Looks Like 2016 In Latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Poll

 

Today's Trump vs. Biden poll finds that the race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden has suddenly gotten much tighter. IBD/TIPP's latest 2020 presidential poll update shows that Republicans are rallying around Trump, Biden is leaking Democratic support, and the gap among independents has narrowed.

leave among the ski group, but it's 4541.

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The latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll update shows the Democratic challenger leading the Republican incumbent by 2.3 points, 48.1%-45.8%, in a four-way presidential poll of likely voters. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen has the support of 3%, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins 0.9%.

 

https://www.investors.com/news/trump-vs-biden-poll-race-tightens-like-2016-ibd-tipp-2020-presidential-poll/

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

Bet you anything Hawkins gets more than 0.9%. The independent left who voted for Stein tend to have functional memories (that last longer than weeks) of them and their 2016 candidate smeared and denigrated as "Russians", because the deranged Democrats felt entitled to win the election and couldn't convince those independents to vote for their Democrat dumpster fire heir-apparent. Nothing has changed in 2020.

Edited October 21, 2020 by Burnt Reynolds