I 130 approved on dec 2015 . How much more time?

[kris&me 572]

21 hours ago, JFH said:

So why, when you applied for tourist visas in 2009, did you say you have no intention of living in the USA? 

 

That could lead to a petmanent ban and you won’t be coming here ever. 

 

 

thanks

gotta love it when someone searches and we learn all the info

hard to answer any questions when the past questions and info are not available

 

[WeGuyGal 1,052]

On 12/8/2018 at 1:28 PM, amarinder said:

That post was on behalf of my friend.

 

BTW, Also, if it 11 years wait then why does the bulletin is mentioning 2004 for F4 India.

Dude, stick to one story. 

 

Members like you give other punjabis in India (assuming you're in mohali) a less than stellar name. The so-called friend should have a distinct account. 

[pm5k 127]

On 12/8/2018 at 12:22 PM, JFH said:

I wouldn’t be booking any plane tickets yet. You have at least 11 years to wait, if the category even continues. Current administration has made it clear they intend to end this form of chain migration if they can. 

 

 

I am curious, how did you get 11 years?

[pm5k 127]

On 12/8/2018 at 12:08 PM, geowrian said:

It doesn't matter when the I-130 was approved. The holdup is the Priority Date (PD) becoming current. F4 category (siblings) from India have ~24 year wait from I-130 filing to the PD becoming current.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin.html

 

Edit: Or did she petition for a parent., and the parent will petition the rest of the family later...?

Who exactly did she petition?

Where did 24 years come from?  I am confused.  The current visa bulletin has April 2005 for F4, which is approximately 13.5 years.  Of course moving forward it can change, but 24 seems like a stretch....or am I missing something?

[pm5k 127]

1 hour ago, pm5k said:

I am curious, how did you get 11 years?

Nevermind, I figured it out.  Not sure how one gets 24 years though..

[geowrian 22,335]

1 hour ago, pm5k said:

Where did 24 years come from?  I am confused.  The current visa bulletin has April 2005 for F4, which is approximately 13.5 years.  Of course moving forward it can change, but 24 seems like a stretch....or am I missing something?

4 minutes ago, pm5k said:

Nevermind, I figured it out.  Not sure how one gets 24 years though..

The current PD does not advance one year annually. It usually advances about 6-8 months historically, and has been slowing down still. If one were to file right now, and we assume an optimistic 8 month advancement annually, that means ~14 years * 12/8  = 21 years.

If we assume a more conservative 7 months, that becomes 24 years.

This grows even more as the advancement per year gets lower. The average progress has been slowing for years.

 

Here's how the F4 category has advanced over the past decade:

Fiscal Year: 2010 - actual progress: 32.03 month(s)

Fiscal Year: 2011 - actual progress: -19.83 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2012 - actual progress: 10.9 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2013 - actual progress: 4.53 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2014 - actual progress: 5.43 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2015 - actual progress: 12.63 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2016 - actual progress: -24.8 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2017 - actual progress: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2018 - actual progress: 27.6 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2019 - actual progress: 2.03 month(s)

Avg: 6.3 years advancement

 

If you only look at the past 5 years, the avg is 5.9 years.