Upcoming july visa bulletin 2014

[Alex2014 0]

Iran: 473 selectees per 1k(1~6500), 160 visa per 1k(1~5350).

At CN 9900, Iran should already have 4700 selectees interviewed. If respond rate is about 80%(6000*80%=4800), then Iran will soon max out (no more selectees for future interviews)

Nepal:391 selectees per 1k(1~6500), 349 visa per 1k(1~5350)

At CN 10700, Nepal should already have 4200 selectees interviewed. Although it will not max out, it will reach its country quota (about 3750 visa issued)

[Sloner 0]

I can't help my age Sloner.

it's a pity Time will not return

[vladek15425 7]

Nepal:391 selectees per 1k(1~6500), 349 visa per 1k(1~5350)

At CN 10700, Nepal should already have 4200 selectees interviewed. Although it will not max out, it will reach its country quota (about 3750 visa issued)

Me and rayme came up with the same conclusion that nepal will hit the limit at 11cn range.

[Kayend 0]

I think June and July cut off has been deliberately slow down by KCC because they need to have smaller margin of error. Previous years they don't need to because it has more visa than demand but this year it will not. So by slowing down June and July cut off, it has lesser visa slot therefore having a smaller margin of error. In other word, KCC is preparing for cut off for some regions in Sept, so I think most of the region will not get current. If this theory is right, KCC will start will big increase for August and September.

Any comment?

Maybe let me try to explain it in detail in case you don't get what I mean. Every month KCC have to allocate visa slots into interview schedule and they did it 2 months advance, which mean they will not know what will be the outcome of that 2 months. Let say in July when KCC suppose to allocate the last set of visa slots for DV, KCC don't know July and August outcome yet, so KCC might estimate what will be the the outcome for July and August then they schedule interviews from the estimate. Chances are they might overestimate or underestimate, so if is overestimate they might need to cancel a lot of interview schedule and if they underestimate they might not able to meet the visa quota. So, what I think is that in order to minimize the impact of wrongly estimate, it need to schedule 2 months with very few selectees in order to reduce the margin of error. So, I was thinking June and July cut off is the 2 months I am talking about.

Does it make any sense?

[vladek15425 7]

Any comment?

Maybe let me try to explain it in detail in case you don't get what I mean. Every month KCC have to allocate visa slots into interview schedule and they did it 2 months advance, which mean they will not know what will be the outcome of that 2 months. Let say in July when KCC suppose to allocate the last set of visa slots for DV, KCC don't know July and August outcome yet, so KCC might estimate what will be the the outcome for July and August then they schedule interviews from the estimate. Chances are they might overestimate or underestimate, so if is overestimate they might need to cancel a lot of interview schedule and if they underestimate they might not able to meet the visa quota. So, what I think is that in order to minimize the impact of wrongly estimate, it need to schedule 2 months with very few selectees in order to reduce the margin of error. So, I was thinking June and July cut off is the 2 months I am talking about.

Does it make any sense?

I hear you kayend , and I agree.

Remember I said no matter what is their reason if they call current or increase cutoffs by high jumps, bargaining on special country limit or just because ''they don't care'' we been warned from the begining.

One more point, since they announce on ESC website that dv14 winner can still check their status up to 30 june, forces me to think that they didn't only minimize the errors at the first months of the process, but also they were giving a chance to the low cns for a come back !

So that they can always re squiz them back in....

[Kayend 0]

Iran: 473 selectees per 1k(1~6500), 160 visa per 1k(1~5350).

At CN 9900, Iran should already have 4700 selectees interviewed. If respond rate is about 80%(6000*80%=4800), then Iran will soon max out (no more selectees for future interviews)

Nepal:391 selectees per 1k(1~6500), 349 visa per 1k(1~5350)

At CN 10700, Nepal should already have 4200 selectees interviewed. Although it will not max out, it will reach its country quota (about 3750 visa issued)

I don't think they will shoot for 3750 limit, they will do it for 3500. In DV13, Iran had more than 3500 is because all countries in Asia has been interviewed and Iran still has a lot of AP, so KCC used NACARA quota to fulfilled the AP cases. In DV14, it will not be the case because there are more demand than supply.

[Alex2014 0]

I don't think they will shoot for 3750 limit, they will do it for 3500. In DV13, Iran had more than 3500 is because all countries in Asia has been interviewed and Iran still has a lot of AP, so KCC used NACARA quota to fulfilled the AP cases. In DV14, it will not be the case because there are more demand than supply.

As a high CN selectee from the rest of Asia, I strongly hope that the extra NACARA quota will not be used by Nepal or Iran.

It will give more visas to selectees from the rest of Asia, meeting the spirit of "diversity."

However, it seems that there are no rules or regulations which disqualify Nepalese selectees from using NACARA quota.

[Britsimon 18]

it's a pity Time will not return

That is true, but it does mean that I possess something that is not found in young people such as yourself... wisdom.

[SusieQQQ 11,585]

That is true, but it does mean that I possess something that is not found in young people such as yourself... wisdom.

[vladek15425 7]

That is true, but it does mean that I possess something that is not found in young people such as yourself... wisdom.

Boooooom ! Lolol

[Kayend 0]

As a high CN selectee from the rest of Asia, I strongly hope that the extra NACARA quota will not be used by Nepal or Iran.

It will give more visas to selectees from the rest of Asia, meeting the spirit of "diversity."

However, it seems that there are no rules or regulations which disqualify Nepalese selectees from using NACARA quota.

I remember there is a facebook page that someone ask US Immigration about the 3500 country limit and the answer is no country can have more than 3500 visa issued under normal circumstances. So, that tell us that Iran case in DV13 is special. Other than Iran in DV13, so far I don't see any country have get over 3500. So, I believe Nepal and Iran will not have more than 3500.

[SusieQQQ 11,585]

I remember there is a facebook page that someone ask US Immigration about the 3500 country limit and the answer is no country can have more than 3500 visa issued under normal circumstances. So, that tell us that Iran case in DV13 is special. Other than Iran in DV13, so far I don't see any country have get over 3500. So, I believe Nepal and Iran will not have more than 3500.

That is the same as saying you can't have more than 50k visas issued, but there have been a number of years there have been more. And a number there are less, part of why I think higher selectees now is just to try harder to get the quota. Edited May 9, 2014 by SusieQQQ

[levi2al 0]

Hi Rafikbo76 , when do you think CEAC will update the visa data for next CN ? Till May 3 is around 32950, referred to your last sheet. Mine is EU369XX and I am so nervous about getting an interview date in August or not.

RG

Artan

[vladek15425 7]

Ethiopia has taken many times over 3600 and 3700 visas...

[tplj 0]

I remember there is a facebook page that someone ask US Immigration about the 3500 country limit and the answer is no country can have more than 3500 visa issued under normal circumstances. So, that tell us that Iran case in DV13 is special. Other than Iran in DV13, so far I don't see any country have get over 3500. So, I believe Nepal and Iran will not have more than 3500.

So kayend, according to ur predication seems like I have no chance rt? 105xx Nepal.

Edited May 9, 2014 by tplj