Nate Silver: Brown will win

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecasting Model, which correctly predicted the outcome of all 35 Senate races in 2008, now regards Republican Scott Brown as a 74 percent favorite to win the Senate seat in Massachusetts on the basis of new polling from ARG, Research 2000 and InsiderAdvantage which show worsening numbers for Brown's opponent, Martha Coakley.

...

Coakley's odds are substantially worse than they appeared to be 24 hours ago, when there were fewer credible polls to evaluate and there appeared to be some chance that her numbers were bottoming out and perhaps reversing. However, the ARG and Research 2000 polls both show clear and recent trends against her. Indeed the model, which was optimized for regular rather than special elections, may be too slow to incorporate new information and may understate the magnitude of the trend toward Brown.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/538...1-favorite.html

[Pooky 3,807]

Arlen Specter must be really unhappy

If Brown wins, there goes his magic vote. Then the Dimocrats don't need to feel the slightest twinge of regret when they dump him out of the primary for his Senate seat.

Grumpy Old Git.

Edited January 19, 2010 by Pooky

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Arlen Specter must be really unhappy

He can just switch back

[Pooky 3,807]

Arlen Specter must be really unhappy

He can just switch back

The Republican'ts would never have him back, they'd just have him for breakfast

[natty bumppo 297]

He can just switch back

The Republican'ts would never have him back, they'd just have him for breakfast

wonder what the people in nebraska will think of sen. ben nelson should coakley loose.

there again ... what do the people of nebraska think about unions?

[Pooky 3,807]

wonder what the people in nebraska will think of sen. ben nelson should coakley loose.

there again ... what do the people of nebraska think about unions?

There are enough people in Nebraska to form a union?

Well I never!

[one...two...tree 2,762]

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[Pinocchio Liberal 268]

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Steve! The parties OVER dude! Move to Holland.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

[spookyturtle 9,466]

http://www.brownforussenate.com/issues

[alienlovechild 75]

The late Sen. Kennedy will be rolling in his grave. Decades of service in the Senate only to replace by an unknown Republican.

[Pooky 3,807]

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I don't know how you can still want this Bill to pass, as there are now more ** fudges, opt-outs, buy-offs and pay-offs than there is anything remotely resembling healthcare reform.

Please, answer me 4 questions:

1. If this Bill is so good for the people, why are Dimocrats negotiating opt-outs and special provisions for their constituents? Is the Bill not as good as it's made out to be?

2. Why are the unions being bought off with a delayed implementation of the "Cadillac" tax? Who else are they going to support, the Republican'ts?

3. If this Bill goes the Reconciliation route, how many of the "special provisions" included to buy ** Senatorial votes will be dropped because they're no longer needed to pass the Bill?

4. How can the Dimocrats still justify this Bill, not healthcare reform in general, just this Bill, when the majority of the nation do not want it?

This Bill needs to fail, so that at the next opportunity a real healthcare reform proposal can take its place, not this faked up pile of political carp. When the electorate said they wanted healthcare reform, I'm pretty sure they expected a whole lot more than Pelosi, Reid and the Dimocrats are prepared to offer them.

[Joseph & Ana 0]

The late Sen. Kennedy will be rolling in his grave. Decades of service in the Senate only to replace by an unknown Republican.

You're mistaken. He'll be out voting (along with his brothers) for Martha.

[NickD 203]

Whoever gets that seat will never have the power Ted had to reroute trillions of our highway tax dollars to his way overpriced Boston tunnel super highway project. Will be interesting if that project even come to a halt. With 100 senators and 435 congressman, never the the impression we have equal representation, just a handful of guys are in power. With this election, the subject of election reform is coming up again with millions being spent from unknown sources.

Even Ted once said, why should he run for president, has more power in the senate.

Well, whatever, may the person with the best line of BS win, always works that way.

[Ban Hammer 13,403]

You're mistaken. He'll be out voting (along with his brothers) for Martha.