Hurricane Ike could hit Houston, Galveston

[Minya's wife 25]

Everybody in and around the Houston area is going to take a nasty hit from this thing if it stays on this path. We're in the downtown area and work in the med center. I'm still at work....but we don't plan on evacuating. (Our zip code is not in the mandatory evacuation zone. We need to leave the major highways clear for those that have mandatory evac orders. We'll 'hunker down' and ride this puppy out. I just need to pick up some bottled water and I'm all set w/ provisions. Be safe everybody.

-P

[~Chad~ 0]

Good luck to you guys. Here is my experience with gustav.

[Jenn! 918]

update:

The structure of this storm appears to have meteorologists at the NHC puzzled. Over the course of the last twelve hours, the storm has been exhibiting not one, but two well-defined areas of maximum winds—one near the eyewall and another in an outer wind band. Additionally, there has been a pronounced disparity between central pressure and wind data. Reported central pressure—945 mb at 8:00 am—would normally be consistent with a borderline Category 3/4 hurricane, yet both dropsonde and flight-level wind data point to Category 2-level winds.

The critical issues are twofold: the degree to which Ike will strengthen, and where on the coast it will make landfall. The NHC forecast track now takes Ike just north of some warm eddies in the western Gulf. At the same time, wind shear in this part of the Gulf is modest, and an anticyclonic flow at upper levels will assist Ike in maintaining an efficient outflow. Forecasters at the NHC currently expect Ike to achieve major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher) prior to landfall.

With respect to forecast track, Ike is being steered to the west-northwest by a strong ridge that extends from the U.S. Southeast to Texas. But that portion of the ridge over Texas is expected to begin to weaken within 48 hours. That should cause Ike to turn to the northwest and north.

Ike's slow progress over the last 24 hours (forward speed between just 7 and 8 mph) has increased the likelihood that the turn will come prior to Ike's reaching the coast. As a result, the NHC's forecast landfall location has shifted to the north and—unfortunately—closer to the Galveston/Houston area. Such a course would also mean that more offshore platforms and rigs are likely to be affected. According to the Minerals Management Service of the federal government, more than 400 of the 700+ manned production platforms in the Gulf have been, or are being, evacuated.

Hurricane Ike's track through the Caribbean and Gulf is somewhat similar to that of the Galveston hurricane of 1900, though the intensity evolution is rather different. The 1900 event failed even to reach hurricane strength until it entered the Gulf. But once there it intensified rapidly and made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane with wind speeds estimated at 150 mph. AIR estimates that a recurrence of the Galveston hurricane could result in insured losses of more than $30 billion. The NHC does not anticipate Ike will reach such intensity, however.

[Kathryn41 3,205]

From the 11:50 update:

"Crown Weather Services

Tropical Weather Discussion

Issued: Thursday, September 11, 2008 1150 am EDT

Expected impacts from Ike County by County:

Matagorda County: Catastrophic damage is expected. Most structures below 15 feet elevation will be completely destroyed. A storm surge of 12 to 20 feet with wave action of up to 10 feet on top of that. Sustained winds of 100 to 120 mph with higher gusts. Complete failure of most homes is likely along with the entire power system.

Brazoria County: Extreme damage is expected. Most structures below 15 feet elevation will be completely destroyed. A storm surge of 15 to 22 feet with wave action of up to 15 feet on top of that. The storm surge will inundate nearly the entire southern one-third to one-half of the county. Sustained winds of 100 to 125 mph with higher gusts. Complete failure of most homes well inland from wind and the entire power system will likely fail.

Galveston County: Extensive to extreme damage is expected. Storm surge flooding of 15 to 20 feet with a maximum surge of 25 to 27 feet possible on the northwest side of Galveston Bay. Wave action of 15 feet on top of the storm surge is expected. Sustained winds of 100 to 120 mph. Extensive damage to homes from wind and surge is expected.

Harris County: Extensive damage is expected. A storm surge of 15 to 25 feet is expected along the west coast of Galveston Bay with wave action of 4 to 8 feet on top of the surge. Extensive and life threatening surge greater than Hurricane Alicia and Hurricane Carla along western Galveston Bay looks likely. Sustained winds of 90 to 110 mph for the southeast one-half of the county and 75 to 100 mph sustained winds across the remainder of Harris County. Extensive roof and wall failures are likely along with massive power outages and widespread heavy vegetation damage.

Fort Bend and Wharton County: Extensive wind damage is expected. Sustained winds of 90 to 115 mph with higher gusts. Extensive wind damage to homes, roofs and windows is expected with some complete failures possible.

Waller and Austin Counties: Extensive wind damage is expected. Sustained winds of 80 to 100mph with higher gusts. Heavy wind damage to homes, some complete failures of homes is possible.

Montgomery County: Extensive wind damage is expected. Sustained winds of 75 to 95 mph with higher gusts. Extensive tree damage is expected across the entire county.

Liberty County: Extensive wind damage is expected. Sustained winds of 75 to 95mph with higher gusts. Heavy wind damage to most structures.

It should be noted that surge levels will exceed 5 feet above normal along the upper Texas coast beginning Friday morning. Maximum surge levels will occur on Friday night through Saturday morning. Most storm surge areas will be uninhabitable for several weeks.

Tropical storm force winds in excess of 40 mph are expected to reach the coast of Texas during Friday morning. Winds of at least tropical storm force will then last for up to 30 hours straight.

Hurricane force winds will reach the coast of Texas, from Port O' Connor to Sabine Pass before midnight Friday evening. Hurricane force winds will then last for about 12 to 15 hours.

Peak winds of 100 to 130 mph are expected across coastal areas from Matagorda to High Island, especially where the eyewall makes landfall. This area does include Freeport, Galveston and Houston!!

As already stated, this is an extremely large hurricane and the effects will be very far reaching. Tropical storm force winds will extend outward up to 260 miles at landfall with hurricane force winds extending outward up to 120 miles. Ike's very strong winds will extend well inland due to the hurricane's accelerating speed at landfall. Damaging hurricane force winds are likely as far inland as 150 miles from the coast. Areas roughly along and east of Interstate 45 up to 150 miles inland will experience hurricane force winds. Tropical storm force winds will likely extend inland to Dallas and Tyler and quite possibly into southeastern Oklahoma. "

[MissStacey 1]

Good luck to you guys. Here is my experience with gustav.

Wow. You did an amazing job on that video Chad.

[peejay 327]

Good luck to you guys. Here is my experience with gustav.

Cool video! I work on an offshore production platform and fly out there from a heliport in Louisiana south of Abbeville. The guys I work with all live in Louisiana. I'm the only Texan on the crew. At the moment we have a construction project going on and all the construction guys are based out of New Orleans area. The construction guys evacuated on Monday and the production guys (which I am) evacuated Tuesday morning ahead of Hurricane Ike.

I was supposed to go to work on Wednesday the 3rd, but didn't return to work until Saturday the 6th due to Hurricane Gustav. My shift normally should have ended on Wednesday the 10th, but we evacuated the facility on Tuesday morning of the 9th due to Hurricane Ike.

Anyway, they guys I'm working with had plenty of tales about Hurricane Gustav. Houma and Thibideaux took the worst of the hurricane, but the tornadoes spawned further inland north of I-10 caused a lot of damage too. The New Orleans guys fared well, but had some minor damages.

I wish this storm was going somewhere else, but them's the breaks for Houston. The last major hurricane to hit here was in 1983 (I was here for that one), so we are way past due for a reality check and the check is in the mail.

[silvanski 1]

Everything's secured, got a full tank of gas, we'll be eating canned spaghetti and spam for several weeks ;-)

No mandatory evacuarion in Victoria county as yet... we'll be keeping an eye on Ike's track, seems we'll be on the south side

[Eveline 9]

Baytown is under mandatory evacuation. We live like 20 minutes outside Baytown and we don't have to necessarily leave. We got plenty of diapers, food, water etc...hope electricity will return soon after the storm.

[yankee 0]

What are you going to do PeeJay? Do you have an evacuation plan?

We were going to go to Houston for Gustav to stay with some friends but we ended up in Florida. We would have went to Houston this time if Ike was coming our way.

I posted this last night and have been busy getting my house in order today.

We do not live in a FEMA mandatory evacuation zone. The city and county government has requested that those of us that do not live in a mandatory evacuation zone to shelter in place. They want to keep the roads clear to evacuate people in the most danger of storm surge. That's what me and the wife will do. We have plenty of food, water, and hurricane supplies. I always stay stocked up during hurricane season so I don't have to run out in a panic at zero hour. I already have plywood cut to fit all my windows from past storms. It will take about an hour to put it all in place. I'm already set up to ride it out. My house sits on high ground and has weathered hurricane force winds in the past.

If we remain without power after the storm passes we plan to go to my brother's house north of Austin when the roads out of Houston allow it.

That's the plan.

update for Ike : http://www.click2houston.com/index.html

My husband flew to Las Vegas last time. Since our zip code is not included for evacuation we'll stay here. We went to Walmart to get some some stuff today. the other night I saw in the news the little boy was excited cause he won't attend his school.. and some guys had their body paint with Ike..tsk tsk tsk..

[Kathryn41 3,205]

A friend sent me a sign he saw painted on plywood on a home in Texas - "Ike go home! Tina isn't here".

[MrsCat 6]

A friend sent me a sign he saw painted on plywood on a home in Texas - "Ike go home! Tina isn't here".

- even at a time like this, they still have a sense of humour.

[Minya's wife 25]

A friend sent me a sign he saw painted on plywood on a home in Texas - "Ike go home! Tina isn't here".

...yet

I just saw on TV this morning as I was getting ready for work, that Tina Turner is supposed to be coming to Houston in October as part of her concert tour.

-P

Edited September 11, 2008 by Minya's wife

[~Chad~ 0]

A friend sent me a sign he saw painted on plywood on a home in Texas - "Ike go home! Tina isn't here".

- even at a time like this, they still have a sense of humour.

What did hurricane Ike say to the Texas squirrel?

hide your nuts, this isn't an ordinary #######

Sorry, couldn't resist.

[StoryAngel 4]

We're on the north side of Houston, not in a mandatory evacuation area, so we're staying put. It's my first experience of hurricane season and part of me is scared and the other part is hoping it could just be fun to "camp out at home" for a few days! Anyone else in Houston? Anyone in the mandatory evacuation area? Just curious...

Stay safe, all!

[silvanski 1]

Stay safe Houston!

There's still surfers riding the waves on Galveston beach?