Hurricane Ike could hit Houston, Galveston

[peejay 327]

Ike could hit Houston, Galveston

Storm track might shift and late Friday landfall is now possible

NBC News and news services

updated 5:50 p.m. CT, Wed., Sept. 10, 2008

HOUSTON - As Ike strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds on Wednesday, officials weighing whether to evacuate millions of South Texans were told that Ike could make landfall even sooner, possibly late Friday night, and in the Houston-Galveston area — not closer to the border with Mexico as earlier forecast.

Four counties south and east of Houston announced mandatory or voluntary evacuations, and authorities began moving weak and chronically ill patients by bus to San Antonio, about 190 miles from Houston. No immediate evacuations were ordered in Harris County, which includes Houston.

A computer model used by the National Hurricane Center forecast a shift 100 miles north, "right into Houston/Galveston with a Category 4" storm, said NBC meteorologist Bill Karins.

"It's too early to know if the other models will copy and shift further north but, no matter what, the trends are not looking good for the millions of people in and around Houston," he added. "With approximately 48 hours until the hurricane force winds move onshore, everyone from Corpus Christi, Houston to Beaumont needs to prepare for a Category 3 or 4 hurricane landfall."

About 1 million people live in the coastal counties between Corpus Christi and Galveston. An additional 4 million live in the Houston area, to the north.

Johnny Greer boarded up his house a mile from the Gulf of Mexico in Brazoria County and was among those planning to hit the road. "Gas and stuff is high. But you can't look at all that," he said. "I think my life is more valuable than high gas prices."

In Corpus Christi, residents with special needs were offered a bus to San Antonio and shelter there, while schools called off classes for Thursday and Friday, as well as weekend sports events.

Officials in Matagorda County, about halfway between Houston and Corpus Christi, also began a mandatory evacuation for residents in its coastal areas.

No matter where Ike hits, its effects are likely to be felt for hundreds of miles, said Mark Sloan, emergency management coordinator for Harris County, which includes Houston.

"It's a very large storm," Sloan said. "The bands will be over 200 miles out from the center of storm, so we have to be aware of its size as it grows over the next 24 to 48 hours and what impacts it will have on Friday, Saturday and Sunday."

Storm surge could be devastating

A Category 4 storm, with winds of at least 131 mph, could cause a storm surge of 18 feet in Matagorda Bay and four to eight feet in Galveston Bay, emergency officials warned. The surge in Galveston Bay could push floodwaters into Houston, damaging areas that include the nation's biggest refinery and NASA's Johnson Space Center.

"My greatest concern with Ike is the storm surge," Karins said. "Ike is like a big hand pushing the water in the gulf towards the Texas coast over and over again. ... The area just right of Ike's final landfall will see a storm surge of 10-20 feet and even areas 100 miles up the coast will have a surge of 5-10 feet.

"Ike's large size, predicted intensity and Texas's shallow water lead to the possibility of a worst-case scenario for coastal towns in Ike's path," he added.

At 5 p.m. ET, Ike was centered about 720 miles east of Brownsville, Texas, and moving northwest near 8 mph. It had grown from sustained 85 mph winds earlier Wednesday.

Ike is expected to become a Category 3 hurricane "within the next 24 hours," the hurricane center stated at midday, noting that its hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles, while tropical storm-force winds extend 205 miles.

The oil and gas industry watched the storm closely, fearing damage to the very heart of its operations. Nearly all gulf oil and natural gas production had shut down as a precaution.

Texas is home to 26 refineries that account for one-fourth of U.S. refining capacity, and most are clustered along the Gulf Coast in such places as Houston, Port Arthur and Corpus Christi. Exxon Mobil Corp.'s plant in Baytown, outside Houston, is the nation's largest refinery. Dow Chemical has a huge operation just north of Corpus Christi.

Refineries are built to withstand high winds, but flooding can disrupt operations and — as happened in Louisiana after Hurricane Gustav — power outages can shut down equipment for days or weeks. An extended shutdown could lead to higher gasoline prices.

South Texas is likely to see its first large-scale evacuation. State and county officials let people decide for themselves whether to leave a hurricane area until just before Hurricane Rita struck the Gulf Coast in 2005. Now county officials can order people out of harm's way.

A mandatory evacuation is possible in the impoverished Rio Grande Valley, home to many immigrants who have traditionally been fearful of evacuating out of concern they could be deported if stopped by authorities. Hidalgo County Judge J.D. Salinas said if an evacuation is ordered, county officials will visit immigrant neighborhoods and forcefully urge people to clear out.

After Hurricanes Katrina and Gustav, "there were a lot of immigrants who said, 'I'm not going to go,'" said Salinas, the county's top elected official. "It's going to be hard."

Federal authorities gave assurances they would not check people's immigration status at evacuation loading zones or inland checkpoints. But residents were skeptical, and there were worries that many illegal immigrants would refuse to board buses and go to shelters for fear of getting arrested and deported.

"People are nervous," said the Rev. Michael Seifert, a Roman Catholic priest and immigrant advocate. "The message that was given to me was that it's going to be a real problem."

One reason for the skepticism: Back in May, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said the Border Patrol would do nothing to impede an evacuation in the event of a hurricane. But when Hurricane Dolly struck the Rio Grande Valley in late July, no mandatory evacuation was ordered, and as a result the Border Patrol kept its checkpoints open. Agents soon caught a van load of illegal immigrants.

Texas officials were encouraging residents in the path of Hurricane Ike to do three things — listen to what local officials say, monitor weather reports and gas up, now.

"We have a fuel team that is part of the state operation system in Austin," said Allison Castle, spokeswoman for Perry. "They are helping to push fuel to hurricane areas. One of the lessons we learned from past hurricanes is we need to have fuel ready."

Ike earlier destroyed hundreds of homes in Cuba and killed at least 80 people in the Caribbean.

'Buses rather than body bags'

On Monday, Texas Gov. Rick Perry declared 88 coastal counties disaster areas to start the flow of state aid, and began preparing for an evacuation, lining up "buses rather than body bags."

Authorities lined up nearly 1,000 buses in case they are needed to move out the many poor and elderly people who have no cars.

The Dallas-Fort Worth area sheltered about 3,000 Hurricane Gustav evacuees last week and is prepared for up to about 20,000 people this time, said Steve Griggs, a county official. The downtown convention center would again serve as the main shelter.

In Washington, President Bush on Wednesday took pre-emptive action by declaring an emergency in Texas and ordering federal officials to assist state and local agencies in preparing for Ike.

As always, some hardened old-timers decided to ride it out. Fourth-generation fisherman James Driggers, 47, planned to spend the storm aboard his 80-foot boat docked in Freeport.

"We like to stay close to our paycheck," he said.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26637482

[MissStacey 1]

What are you going to do PeeJay? Do you have an evacuation plan?

We were going to go to Houston for Gustav to stay with some friends but we ended up in Florida. We would have went to Houston this time if Ike was coming our way.

[jundp 191]

Ach. I'll be so glad when hurricane season is over. It still stresses me out so much and I'm not even there anymore. I hope you all are safe.

[MissStacey 1]

Ach. I'll be so glad when hurricane season is over. It still stresses me out so much and I'm not even there anymore. I hope you all are safe.

Most of our windows are still boarded up. Mel wanted to wait and see what Ike was doing before he decided to take them down. I wish he left our bedroom one up though- I love sleeping when it is pitch black.

Our fridge is also pretty bare. We tossed almost everything between the fridge and the deep freeze. I don't want to stock up again yet.

[natty bumppo 297]

What are you going to do PeeJay? Do you have an evacuation plan?

We were going to go to Houston for Gustav to stay with some friends but we ended up in Florida. We would have went to Houston this time if Ike was coming our way.

changed my plans and I'm leaving for Brazil tomorrow ... much better weather

[MissStacey 1]

What are you going to do PeeJay? Do you have an evacuation plan?

We were going to go to Houston for Gustav to stay with some friends but we ended up in Florida. We would have went to Houston this time if Ike was coming our way.

changed my plans and I'm leaving for Brazil tomorrow ... much better weather

Nice!!

[natty bumppo 297]

What are you going to do PeeJay? Do you have an evacuation plan?

We were going to go to Houston for Gustav to stay with some friends but we ended up in Florida. We would have went to Houston this time if Ike was coming our way.

changed my plans and I'm leaving for Brazil tomorrow ... much better weather

Nice!!

Isa and the twins left last week .... I have a trade show to attend in Rio next week so I bumped my ticket to leave tomorrow (leave before Ike) to make sure I was ready for Monday. Needed to connect through EWR (Newark) instead of the direct flight from Houston (totally booked tomorrow) which makes for a much longer flight. Oh well ... I see my wife and boys again on Friday in Rio ... it's all good

[jundp 191]

Be safe Natty. (and the rest of you!)

[natty bumppo 297]

Be safe Natty. (and the rest of you!)

thanks ...

[luckytxn 2,265]

Just bring Ike on and get it over with already.

[silvanski 1]

Have to report in at the STBTC thursday morning, we'll be able to leave around noon

Gonna pick up Kathleen and the doggies and move a bit further inland to Cuero ... fingers crossed

[Kathryn41 3,205]

Good luck everyone who is in Ike's path. Joe and I are nervously watching as well - his 84 year old mother lives just north of Houston as does his two sisters and their families. We will be checking today to see if they will be evacuating or not. Ike looks nasty and with its north veer after landfall Houston will be in the line of fire. Current forecasts have hurricane force winds (cat 1) extending inland over 150 miles and cat 2 will extend inland substantially as well.

Here is an excellent link to information about Ike with lots of little options to click to see more details: http://www.stormpulse.com/

Be safe everyone!

[peejay 327]

What are you going to do PeeJay? Do you have an evacuation plan?

We were going to go to Houston for Gustav to stay with some friends but we ended up in Florida. We would have went to Houston this time if Ike was coming our way.

I posted this last night and have been busy getting my house in order today.

We do not live in a FEMA mandatory evacuation zone. The city and county government has requested that those of us that do not live in a mandatory evacuation zone to shelter in place. They want to keep the roads clear to evacuate people in the most danger of storm surge. That's what me and the wife will do. We have plenty of food, water, and hurricane supplies. I always stay stocked up during hurricane season so I don't have to run out in a panic at zero hour. I already have plywood cut to fit all my windows from past storms. It will take about an hour to put it all in place. I'm already set up to ride it out. My house sits on high ground and has weathered hurricane force winds in the past.

If we remain without power after the storm passes we plan to go to my brother's house north of Austin when the roads out of Houston allow it.

That's the plan.

[Eveline 9]

We're gonna stay at my MIL house. We'll board up ours and move down the street. MIL has a generator so we'll have water and electricity there. WE bought plenty of diapers and are packing up the car right now.

[MissStacey 1]

That's awesome Peej. Glad you are so prepared.

We are looking forward to the storm weather here this weekend- we plan on just snuggling up inside and being lazy.