Tom and SooGyeong

I am still of the opinion that the sudden wave of approvals was an anomaly that was caused in part by the temporary government shutdown. The petitions are supposed to be processed in the order that they are received, and there are still petitions that were filed back in June of 2017 still waiting. Perhaps a couple of bank box style storage boxes were pulled out of line for a data update to one or two petitions, and rather than put the boxes back in line, they put them on some adjudicator’s desk. 
The historical data still points to mid to late summer for January 2018 filers.
 

Signature is Not Required

Our case has never been transferred. It went directly to CSC and remained there.

Not to be a downer, but statistical data forecasts that most January 2018 filers will be waiting until June to be approved.
I went back 2 years and harvested from VJ all of the petitions that were approved. Then I separated them by month, and audited the posted dates. These were well over 1000 individual petitions, over a 2 year period. The results spoke of tremendous inefficiencies in the adjudication process. In any given month, the ‘average’ wait time by month was consistently around 500 days.
 Usually, less that 20% of those petitions were approved before the 30-day window centered on that average wait time. The percentage of petitions that were approved in that 30-day window (day 485-515) varied from 50% to 80%, with the remaining petitions being approved well past the 500-day mark. The spread each month between the shortest wait and the longest wait (again in any given month) varied wildly from as little as 200 days to a whopping 500 day gap... and that is in a single month’s group of files petitions.
 The 500-day average calculates to 16.5 months, and currently the posted wait time for I-751 petitions is 15.5 - 18 months.
i believe that to be an accurate forecast.
 
The few petition approvals from late 2017 that we are noticing are representative of that historically consistent monthly 20% that get lucky and are approved a bit ahead of the average.
 
Because of the slight acceleration of the process in recent weeks (from the additional adjudicators that have been added to the workforce) I think that 15.5 - 16.5 months wait is more likely what we will experience. The mean of that spread is 16 months, so my best guesstimate is to look for the majority of we January 2018 filers to be approved during the month of May. Just 4 months more, and we should get there.

Not to be a downer, but statistical data forecasts that most January 2018 filers will be waiting until June to be approved.
I went back 2 years and harvested from VJ all of the petitions that were approved. Then I separated them by month, and audited the posted dates. These were well over 1000 individual petitions, over a 2 year period. The results spoke of tremendous inefficiencies in the adjudication process. In any given month, the ‘average’ wait time by month was consistently around 500 days.
 Usually, less that 20% of those petitions were approved before the 30-day window centered on that average wait time. The percentage of petitions that were approved in that 30-day window (day 485-515) varied from 50% to 80%, with the remaining petitions being approved well past the 500-day mark. The spread each month between the shortest wait and the longest wait (again in any given month) varied wildly from as little as 200 days to a whopping 500 day gap... and that is in a single month’s group of files petitions.
 The 500-day average calculates to 16.5 months, and currently the posted wait time for I-751 petitions is 15.5 - 18 months.
i believe that to be an accurate forecast.
 
The few petition approvals from late 2017 that we are noticing are representative of that historically consistent monthly 20% that get lucky and are approved a bit ahead of the average.
 
Because of the slight acceleration of the process in recent weeks (from the additional adjudicators that have been added to the workforce) I think that 15.5 - 16.5 months wait is more likely what we will experience. The mean of that spread is 16 months, so my best guesstimate is to look for the majority of we January 2018 filers to be approved during the month of May. Just 4 months more, and we should get there.

Not to be a downer, but statistical data forecasts that most January 2018 filers will be waiting until June to be approved.
I went back 2 years and harvested from VJ all of the petitions that were approved. Then I separated them by month, and audited the posted dates. These were well over 1000 individual petitions, over a 2 year period. The results spoke of tremendous inefficiencies in the adjudication process. In any given month, the ‘average’ wait time by month was consistently around 500 days.
 Usually, less that 20% of those petitions were approved before the 30-day window centered on that average wait time. The percentage of petitions that were approved in that 30-day window (day 485-515) varied from 50% to 80%, with the remaining petitions being approved well past the 500-day mark. The spread each month between the shortest wait and the longest wait (again in any given month) varied wildly from as little as 200 days to a whopping 500 day gap... and that is in a single month’s group of files petitions.
 The 500-day average calculates to 16.5 months, and currently the posted wait time for I-751 petitions is 15.5 - 18 months.
i believe that to be an accurate forecast.
 
The few petition approvals from late 2017 that we are noticing are representative of that historically consistent monthly 20% that get lucky and are approved a bit ahead of the average.
 
Because of the slight acceleration of the process in recent weeks (from the additional adjudicators that have been added to the workforce) I think that 15.5 - 16.5 months wait is more likely what we will experience. The mean of that spread is 16 months, so my best guesstimate is to look for the majority of we January 2018 filers to be approved during the month of May. Just 4 months more, and we should get there.

Not to be a downer, but statistical data forecasts that most January 2018 filers will be waiting until June to be approved.
I went back 2 years and harvested from VJ all of the petitions that were approved. Then I separated them by month, and audited the posted dates. These were well over 1000 individual petitions, over a 2 year period. The results spoke of tremendous inefficiencies in the adjudication process. In any given month, the ‘average’ wait time by month was consistently around 500 days.
 Usually, less that 20% of those petitions were approved before the 30-day window centered on that average wait time. The percentage of petitions that were approved in that 30-day window (day 485-515) varied from 50% to 80%, with the remaining petitions being approved well past the 500-day mark. The spread each month between the shortest wait and the longest wait (again in any given month) varied wildly from as little as 200 days to a whopping 500 day gap... and that is in a single month’s group of files petitions.
 The 500-day average calculates to 16.5 months, and currently the posted wait time for I-751 petitions is 15.5 - 18 months.
i believe that to be an accurate forecast.
 
The few petition approvals from late 2017 that we are noticing are representative of that historically consistent monthly 20% that get lucky and are approved a bit ahead of the average.
 
Because of the slight acceleration of the process in recent weeks (from the additional adjudicators that have been added to the workforce) I think that 15.5 - 16.5 months wait is more likely what we will experience. The mean of that spread is 16 months, so my best guesstimate is to look for the majority of we January 2018 filers to be approved during the month of May. Just 4 months more, and we should get there.

Not to be a downer, but statistical data forecasts that most January 2018 filers will be waiting until June to be approved.
I went back 2 years and harvested from VJ all of the petitions that were approved. Then I separated them by month, and audited the posted dates. These were well over 1000 individual petitions, over a 2 year period. The results spoke of tremendous inefficiencies in the adjudication process. In any given month, the ‘average’ wait time by month was consistently around 500 days.
 Usually, less that 20% of those petitions were approved before the 30-day window centered on that average wait time. The percentage of petitions that were approved in that 30-day window (day 485-515) varied from 50% to 80%, with the remaining petitions being approved well past the 500-day mark. The spread each month between the shortest wait and the longest wait (again in any given month) varied wildly from as little as 200 days to a whopping 500 day gap... and that is in a single month’s group of files petitions.
 The 500-day average calculates to 16.5 months, and currently the posted wait time for I-751 petitions is 15.5 - 18 months.
i believe that to be an accurate forecast.
 
The few petition approvals from late 2017 that we are noticing are representative of that historically consistent monthly 20% that get lucky and are approved a bit ahead of the average.
 
Because of the slight acceleration of the process in recent weeks (from the additional adjudicators that have been added to the workforce) I think that 15.5 - 16.5 months wait is more likely what we will experience. The mean of that spread is 16 months, so my best guesstimate is to look for the majority of we January 2018 filers to be approved during the month of May. Just 4 months more, and we should get there.

Not to be a downer, but statistical data forecasts that most January 2018 filers will be waiting until June to be approved.
I went back 2 years and harvested from VJ all of the petitions that were approved. Then I separated them by month, and audited the posted dates. These were well over 1000 individual petitions, over a 2 year period. The results spoke of tremendous inefficiencies in the adjudication process. In any given month, the ‘average’ wait time by month was consistently around 500 days.
 Usually, less that 20% of those petitions were approved before the 30-day window centered on that average wait time. The percentage of petitions that were approved in that 30-day window (day 485-515) varied from 50% to 80%, with the remaining petitions being approved well past the 500-day mark. The spread each month between the shortest wait and the longest wait (again in any given month) varied wildly from as little as 200 days to a whopping 500 day gap... and that is in a single month’s group of files petitions.
 The 500-day average calculates to 16.5 months, and currently the posted wait time for I-751 petitions is 15.5 - 18 months.
i believe that to be an accurate forecast.
 
The few petition approvals from late 2017 that we are noticing are representative of that historically consistent monthly 20% that get lucky and are approved a bit ahead of the average.
 
Because of the slight acceleration of the process in recent weeks (from the additional adjudicators that have been added to the workforce) I think that 15.5 - 16.5 months wait is more likely what we will experience. The mean of that spread is 16 months, so my best guesstimate is to look for the majority of we January 2018 filers to be approved during the month of May. Just 4 months more, and we should get there.

Not to be a downer, but statistical data forecasts that most January 2018 filers will be waiting until June to be approved.
I went back 2 years and harvested from VJ all of the petitions that were approved. Then I separated them by month, and audited the posted dates. These were well over 1000 individual petitions, over a 2 year period. The results spoke of tremendous inefficiencies in the adjudication process. In any given month, the ‘average’ wait time by month was consistently around 500 days.
 Usually, less that 20% of those petitions were approved before the 30-day window centered on that average wait time. The percentage of petitions that were approved in that 30-day window (day 485-515) varied from 50% to 80%, with the remaining petitions being approved well past the 500-day mark. The spread each month between the shortest wait and the longest wait (again in any given month) varied wildly from as little as 200 days to a whopping 500 day gap... and that is in a single month’s group of files petitions.
 The 500-day average calculates to 16.5 months, and currently the posted wait time for I-751 petitions is 15.5 - 18 months.
i believe that to be an accurate forecast.
 
The few petition approvals from late 2017 that we are noticing are representative of that historically consistent monthly 20% that get lucky and are approved a bit ahead of the average.
 
Because of the slight acceleration of the process in recent weeks (from the additional adjudicators that have been added to the workforce) I think that 15.5 - 16.5 months wait is more likely what we will experience. The mean of that spread is 16 months, so my best guesstimate is to look for the majority of we January 2018 filers to be approved during the month of May. Just 4 months more, and we should get there.

Not to be a downer, but statistical data forecasts that most January 2018 filers will be waiting until June to be approved.
I went back 2 years and harvested from VJ all of the petitions that were approved. Then I separated them by month, and audited the posted dates. These were well over 1000 individual petitions, over a 2 year period. The results spoke of tremendous inefficiencies in the adjudication process. In any given month, the ‘average’ wait time by month was consistently around 500 days.
 Usually, less that 20% of those petitions were approved before the 30-day window centered on that average wait time. The percentage of petitions that were approved in that 30-day window (day 485-515) varied from 50% to 80%, with the remaining petitions being approved well past the 500-day mark. The spread each month between the shortest wait and the longest wait (again in any given month) varied wildly from as little as 200 days to a whopping 500 day gap... and that is in a single month’s group of files petitions.
 The 500-day average calculates to 16.5 months, and currently the posted wait time for I-751 petitions is 15.5 - 18 months.
i believe that to be an accurate forecast.
 
The few petition approvals from late 2017 that we are noticing are representative of that historically consistent monthly 20% that get lucky and are approved a bit ahead of the average.
 
Because of the slight acceleration of the process in recent weeks (from the additional adjudicators that have been added to the workforce) I think that 15.5 - 16.5 months wait is more likely what we will experience. The mean of that spread is 16 months, so my best guesstimate is to look for the majority of we January 2018 filers to be approved during the month of May. Just 4 months more, and we should get there.

Not to be a downer, but statistical data forecasts that most January 2018 filers will be waiting until June to be approved.
I went back 2 years and harvested from VJ all of the petitions that were approved. Then I separated them by month, and audited the posted dates. These were well over 1000 individual petitions, over a 2 year period. The results spoke of tremendous inefficiencies in the adjudication process. In any given month, the ‘average’ wait time by month was consistently around 500 days.
 Usually, less that 20% of those petitions were approved before the 30-day window centered on that average wait time. The percentage of petitions that were approved in that 30-day window (day 485-515) varied from 50% to 80%, with the remaining petitions being approved well past the 500-day mark. The spread each month between the shortest wait and the longest wait (again in any given month) varied wildly from as little as 200 days to a whopping 500 day gap... and that is in a single month’s group of files petitions.
 The 500-day average calculates to 16.5 months, and currently the posted wait time for I-751 petitions is 15.5 - 18 months.
i believe that to be an accurate forecast.
 
The few petition approvals from late 2017 that we are noticing are representative of that historically consistent monthly 20% that get lucky and are approved a bit ahead of the average.
 
Because of the slight acceleration of the process in recent weeks (from the additional adjudicators that have been added to the workforce) I think that 15.5 - 16.5 months wait is more likely what we will experience. The mean of that spread is 16 months, so my best guesstimate is to look for the majority of we January 2018 filers to be approved during the month of May. Just 4 months more, and we should get there.

Most of the January 2018 I-751 filers have received both a 12-month extension letter and a (second) 18-month extension letter. 
Yes An Appointment At Your Local Office is Necessary AND WORTH IT. 
SO, when your 12-month extension letter has only 30 days or less remaining, you should go inline here:
https://my.uscis.gov/en/appointment/us
and make an INFOPASS appointment. They only schedule out to two weeks forward, so it may take several tries. Once you make the appointment, your spouse should take his UNEXPIRED foreign passport, and all appropriate paperwork, including the expired greencard and soon-to-expire 12-month extension letter, and your local office will place an I-551 stamp in in his passport. This is the same as an extension letter. I-551stamps are sometimes for 6-months, sometimes 12-months, depending on the Local Office.

Certainly. If you already have two of those, then you are better prepared than you thought. Just be sure to include that evidence in your petition packet. 
I also agree with your earlier statement about the size of some of the petitions mentioned in this forum... Way Too Large. 
USCIS needs quality verifiable evidence. If you submit that, then rest easy. Quality proof is far stronger than quantity proof. 
Also, you should not fear traveling out of the country. My wife and I have traveled to South Korea together twice with her expired GC and extension letters, (both 12-month and 18-month), and she made a month-long solo trip and back. Border control simply asked to see her GC and and extension letter, and once she presented them, she was waived through without question. 

Certainly. If you already have two of those, then you are better prepared than you thought. Just be sure to include that evidence in your petition packet. 
I also agree with your earlier statement about the size of some of the petitions mentioned in this forum... Way Too Large. 
USCIS needs quality verifiable evidence. If you submit that, then rest easy. Quality proof is far stronger than quantity proof. 
Also, you should not fear traveling out of the country. My wife and I have traveled to South Korea together twice with her expired GC and extension letters, (both 12-month and 18-month), and she made a month-long solo trip and back. Border control simply asked to see her GC and and extension letter, and once she presented them, she was waived through without question. 

My Guesstimate is still Late June to Early August 2019 for most of us

Fellow January 2018 Filers,
This cold and snowy weekend, I have gathered as much data as possible from USCIS and Visa Journey Filer’s reported information. I have filtered that data through numerous counting formulas and used a bit of Kentucky-windage to try to forecast when we may be completing our Adjudication Waiting Period. Here are my findings.
   
   Over a 9-month spread of filers from July 2016 to March 2017, the average wait time was 520 days.
On average, 40% of the filers in any given month were adjudicated within a 30-day window of the average, (meaning +/- 2 weeks of the 520 day monthly average).
USCIS is reporting to receive on average approximately 14,700 I-751 petitions per month.
USCIS is also reporting to process on average only 9,250 per month, and rolling some 5,450 forward (deficit) each month.
USCIS is reporting that currently, there are 259,200 I-751 petitions waiting to be processed.
   With their current averages of 14,700 received per month, we can calculate that approximately 154,000 of those petitions are behind us in line. That leaves 105,000 in front of us, which at the current rate of 9,250 per month would be about 11 month’s wait, if all things were equal.  
However, as we all know, USCIS is anything but equal, and there are anomalies and extenuating situations in every month.
   I believe the 520-day average wait time, and the 40% of monthly filers falling within a +/- 2-week window of that number to be fairly consistent.  That would place our January 2018 Filers window of some consistent case file action at: (by week)
January  2, 2018 ~ June  6, 2019
January  9, 2018 ~ June 13, 2019
January 16, 2018 ~ June 20, 2019
January 23, 2018 ~ June 27, 2019
January 30, 2018 ~ July 5, 2019
 
Again, these are approximations, and represent the middle 40% of January filers, based on past statistics, with some coming sooner and some coming later.
 VJ members who fail to report their data throw a huge wrench into the calculations process. For example, there were a total of 113 January 2017 filers on VJ, (one year before us) but only 66% (75) have reported being approved. They filed 22 months ago, so some of the 38 who do not show to have been approved may have just not bothered to report it on VJ.
Those 75 who have reported being approved, range in wait time from as fast as 182 days to as slow as 659 days.
That is a 477-day spread, (15 ½ months) which is also reflected in the monthly historical data... (some months had an even wider spread).
For the January 2017 filers on VJ , (one year before us) there were no filers who fell within the  30-day +/- 2-week window around the ‘average’ wait of 441 days for that month.  43% were faster with an average of 339 day wait, while 57% had a longer wait, averaging 507 days. All of this was before in the beginning stage of the big slow-down in processing.
 
Some in our little group seemed hopeful that we may begin seeing a large portion of our January 2018 group adjudicated in March or April of 2019. While a few may be, the historical numbers and reality may indeed have most us waiting 2 or 3 months  longer than that hoped for early spring dates.

Fellow January 2018 Filers,
This cold and snowy weekend, I have gathered as much data as possible from USCIS and Visa Journey Filer’s reported information. I have filtered that data through numerous counting formulas and used a bit of Kentucky-windage to try to forecast when we may be completing our Adjudication Waiting Period. Here are my findings.
   
   Over a 9-month spread of filers from July 2016 to March 2017, the average wait time was 520 days.
On average, 40% of the filers in any given month were adjudicated within a 30-day window of the average, (meaning +/- 2 weeks of the 520 day monthly average).
USCIS is reporting to receive on average approximately 14,700 I-751 petitions per month.
USCIS is also reporting to process on average only 9,250 per month, and rolling some 5,450 forward (deficit) each month.
USCIS is reporting that currently, there are 259,200 I-751 petitions waiting to be processed.
   With their current averages of 14,700 received per month, we can calculate that approximately 154,000 of those petitions are behind us in line. That leaves 105,000 in front of us, which at the current rate of 9,250 per month would be about 11 month’s wait, if all things were equal.  
However, as we all know, USCIS is anything but equal, and there are anomalies and extenuating situations in every month.
   I believe the 520-day average wait time, and the 40% of monthly filers falling within a +/- 2-week window of that number to be fairly consistent.  That would place our January 2018 Filers window of some consistent case file action at: (by week)
January  2, 2018 ~ June  6, 2019
January  9, 2018 ~ June 13, 2019
January 16, 2018 ~ June 20, 2019
January 23, 2018 ~ June 27, 2019
January 30, 2018 ~ July 5, 2019
 
Again, these are approximations, and represent the middle 40% of January filers, based on past statistics, with some coming sooner and some coming later.
 VJ members who fail to report their data throw a huge wrench into the calculations process. For example, there were a total of 113 January 2017 filers on VJ, (one year before us) but only 66% (75) have reported being approved. They filed 22 months ago, so some of the 38 who do not show to have been approved may have just not bothered to report it on VJ.
Those 75 who have reported being approved, range in wait time from as fast as 182 days to as slow as 659 days.
That is a 477-day spread, (15 ½ months) which is also reflected in the monthly historical data... (some months had an even wider spread).
For the January 2017 filers on VJ , (one year before us) there were no filers who fell within the  30-day +/- 2-week window around the ‘average’ wait of 441 days for that month.  43% were faster with an average of 339 day wait, while 57% had a longer wait, averaging 507 days. All of this was before in the beginning stage of the big slow-down in processing.
 
Some in our little group seemed hopeful that we may begin seeing a large portion of our January 2018 group adjudicated in March or April of 2019. While a few may be, the historical numbers and reality may indeed have most us waiting 2 or 3 months  longer than that hoped for early spring dates.

Fellow January 2018 Filers,
This cold and snowy weekend, I have gathered as much data as possible from USCIS and Visa Journey Filer’s reported information. I have filtered that data through numerous counting formulas and used a bit of Kentucky-windage to try to forecast when we may be completing our Adjudication Waiting Period. Here are my findings.
   
   Over a 9-month spread of filers from July 2016 to March 2017, the average wait time was 520 days.
On average, 40% of the filers in any given month were adjudicated within a 30-day window of the average, (meaning +/- 2 weeks of the 520 day monthly average).
USCIS is reporting to receive on average approximately 14,700 I-751 petitions per month.
USCIS is also reporting to process on average only 9,250 per month, and rolling some 5,450 forward (deficit) each month.
USCIS is reporting that currently, there are 259,200 I-751 petitions waiting to be processed.
   With their current averages of 14,700 received per month, we can calculate that approximately 154,000 of those petitions are behind us in line. That leaves 105,000 in front of us, which at the current rate of 9,250 per month would be about 11 month’s wait, if all things were equal.  
However, as we all know, USCIS is anything but equal, and there are anomalies and extenuating situations in every month.
   I believe the 520-day average wait time, and the 40% of monthly filers falling within a +/- 2-week window of that number to be fairly consistent.  That would place our January 2018 Filers window of some consistent case file action at: (by week)
January  2, 2018 ~ June  6, 2019
January  9, 2018 ~ June 13, 2019
January 16, 2018 ~ June 20, 2019
January 23, 2018 ~ June 27, 2019
January 30, 2018 ~ July 5, 2019
 
Again, these are approximations, and represent the middle 40% of January filers, based on past statistics, with some coming sooner and some coming later.
 VJ members who fail to report their data throw a huge wrench into the calculations process. For example, there were a total of 113 January 2017 filers on VJ, (one year before us) but only 66% (75) have reported being approved. They filed 22 months ago, so some of the 38 who do not show to have been approved may have just not bothered to report it on VJ.
Those 75 who have reported being approved, range in wait time from as fast as 182 days to as slow as 659 days.
That is a 477-day spread, (15 ½ months) which is also reflected in the monthly historical data... (some months had an even wider spread).
For the January 2017 filers on VJ , (one year before us) there were no filers who fell within the  30-day +/- 2-week window around the ‘average’ wait of 441 days for that month.  43% were faster with an average of 339 day wait, while 57% had a longer wait, averaging 507 days. All of this was before in the beginning stage of the big slow-down in processing.
 
Some in our little group seemed hopeful that we may begin seeing a large portion of our January 2018 group adjudicated in March or April of 2019. While a few may be, the historical numbers and reality may indeed have most us waiting 2 or 3 months  longer than that hoped for early spring dates.

Correct.The current 18-month extension is added to your temporary Green Card exp. date. Being January filers, most of our GC exp. dates were for April 2018, making the 18-month extension out to October 2019

Fellow January 2018 Filers,
This cold and snowy weekend, I have gathered as much data as possible from USCIS and Visa Journey Filer’s reported information. I have filtered that data through numerous counting formulas and used a bit of Kentucky-windage to try to forecast when we may be completing our Adjudication Waiting Period. Here are my findings.
   
   Over a 9-month spread of filers from July 2016 to March 2017, the average wait time was 520 days.
On average, 40% of the filers in any given month were adjudicated within a 30-day window of the average, (meaning +/- 2 weeks of the 520 day monthly average).
USCIS is reporting to receive on average approximately 14,700 I-751 petitions per month.
USCIS is also reporting to process on average only 9,250 per month, and rolling some 5,450 forward (deficit) each month.
USCIS is reporting that currently, there are 259,200 I-751 petitions waiting to be processed.
   With their current averages of 14,700 received per month, we can calculate that approximately 154,000 of those petitions are behind us in line. That leaves 105,000 in front of us, which at the current rate of 9,250 per month would be about 11 month’s wait, if all things were equal.  
However, as we all know, USCIS is anything but equal, and there are anomalies and extenuating situations in every month.
   I believe the 520-day average wait time, and the 40% of monthly filers falling within a +/- 2-week window of that number to be fairly consistent.  That would place our January 2018 Filers window of some consistent case file action at: (by week)
January  2, 2018 ~ June  6, 2019
January  9, 2018 ~ June 13, 2019
January 16, 2018 ~ June 20, 2019
January 23, 2018 ~ June 27, 2019
January 30, 2018 ~ July 5, 2019
 
Again, these are approximations, and represent the middle 40% of January filers, based on past statistics, with some coming sooner and some coming later.
 VJ members who fail to report their data throw a huge wrench into the calculations process. For example, there were a total of 113 January 2017 filers on VJ, (one year before us) but only 66% (75) have reported being approved. They filed 22 months ago, so some of the 38 who do not show to have been approved may have just not bothered to report it on VJ.
Those 75 who have reported being approved, range in wait time from as fast as 182 days to as slow as 659 days.
That is a 477-day spread, (15 ½ months) which is also reflected in the monthly historical data... (some months had an even wider spread).
For the January 2017 filers on VJ , (one year before us) there were no filers who fell within the  30-day +/- 2-week window around the ‘average’ wait of 441 days for that month.  43% were faster with an average of 339 day wait, while 57% had a longer wait, averaging 507 days. All of this was before in the beginning stage of the big slow-down in processing.
 
Some in our little group seemed hopeful that we may begin seeing a large portion of our January 2018 group adjudicated in March or April of 2019. While a few may be, the historical numbers and reality may indeed have most us waiting 2 or 3 months  longer than that hoped for early spring dates.

Fellow January 2018 Filers,
This cold and snowy weekend, I have gathered as much data as possible from USCIS and Visa Journey Filer’s reported information. I have filtered that data through numerous counting formulas and used a bit of Kentucky-windage to try to forecast when we may be completing our Adjudication Waiting Period. Here are my findings.
   
   Over a 9-month spread of filers from July 2016 to March 2017, the average wait time was 520 days.
On average, 40% of the filers in any given month were adjudicated within a 30-day window of the average, (meaning +/- 2 weeks of the 520 day monthly average).
USCIS is reporting to receive on average approximately 14,700 I-751 petitions per month.
USCIS is also reporting to process on average only 9,250 per month, and rolling some 5,450 forward (deficit) each month.
USCIS is reporting that currently, there are 259,200 I-751 petitions waiting to be processed.
   With their current averages of 14,700 received per month, we can calculate that approximately 154,000 of those petitions are behind us in line. That leaves 105,000 in front of us, which at the current rate of 9,250 per month would be about 11 month’s wait, if all things were equal.  
However, as we all know, USCIS is anything but equal, and there are anomalies and extenuating situations in every month.
   I believe the 520-day average wait time, and the 40% of monthly filers falling within a +/- 2-week window of that number to be fairly consistent.  That would place our January 2018 Filers window of some consistent case file action at: (by week)
January  2, 2018 ~ June  6, 2019
January  9, 2018 ~ June 13, 2019
January 16, 2018 ~ June 20, 2019
January 23, 2018 ~ June 27, 2019
January 30, 2018 ~ July 5, 2019
 
Again, these are approximations, and represent the middle 40% of January filers, based on past statistics, with some coming sooner and some coming later.
 VJ members who fail to report their data throw a huge wrench into the calculations process. For example, there were a total of 113 January 2017 filers on VJ, (one year before us) but only 66% (75) have reported being approved. They filed 22 months ago, so some of the 38 who do not show to have been approved may have just not bothered to report it on VJ.
Those 75 who have reported being approved, range in wait time from as fast as 182 days to as slow as 659 days.
That is a 477-day spread, (15 ½ months) which is also reflected in the monthly historical data... (some months had an even wider spread).
For the January 2017 filers on VJ , (one year before us) there were no filers who fell within the  30-day +/- 2-week window around the ‘average’ wait of 441 days for that month.  43% were faster with an average of 339 day wait, while 57% had a longer wait, averaging 507 days. All of this was before in the beginning stage of the big slow-down in processing.
 
Some in our little group seemed hopeful that we may begin seeing a large portion of our January 2018 group adjudicated in March or April of 2019. While a few may be, the historical numbers and reality may indeed have most us waiting 2 or 3 months  longer than that hoped for early spring dates.

I still believe in my prediction (posted earlier) that the majority of January 2018 filers will have their decisions around:
June 2019 for VSC filers
July  2019 for CSC filers
 
I haven't rechecked those numbers recently, so I'll try to filter back through the relative data points again this weekend and see if I need to tweak my prognostication.