Number of cases processed hit new high!

[Cheesehead22 86]

1 hour ago, Kalehua said:

Just saw some approvals from today for April 1st in 68000 range.

Finally!!! ♥️♥️♥️♥️♥️ I'm counting about a dozen approvals for April 1st so far!

[Oregonian97 48]

Do we have evidence that USCIS works it's way in order for a given month? I.e when they finish 60% or March, they jump into the April cases, starting with the ones files early April? (which is why we are seeing April 1 case approvals)

 

I know that sounds logical but again nothing about how USCIS processes cases seems to be.

 

Edit: Asking because my NOA1 was early September, so hoping that means I am part of the first batch for that month. 

Edited April 26, 2023 by Oregonian97

[Bh_sarah 942]

56 minutes ago, Oregonian97 said:

Do we have evidence that USCIS works it's way in order for a given month? I.e when they finish 60% or March, they jump into the April cases, starting with the ones files early April? (which is why we are seeing April 1 case approvals)

 

I know that sounds logical but again nothing about how USCIS processes cases seems to be.

 

Edit: Asking because my NOA1 was early September, so hoping that means I am part of the first batch for that month. 

If they actually started working in April (I mean 50+ cases approved per day), then they started April with March being 37% processed/50% touched (that would mean that they move from a month at 50% touched, not processed as I thought to be true).

I think we have no way of actually knowing if they go by month like we do. It's just like referencing cases inside a 500 range, we don't know how they divide them, we just do it like that due to the CaseTracker limit. But all the data points to moving from month to month since the cases from the month before start seeing a lower activity, instead of us seeing the same activity for 2 different months (let me know if my thinking here makes sense).

I do hope you're part of the first batch/wave of approvals, I don't recommend seeing new months get the majority of activity when you're still waiting.
I think there's a slight better chance for you since you're an early filer, but again, nothing is certain. Talking about my month only since I track it in detail, there are early February filers still waiting. There are *more* later February filers waiting, but it's not like they zeroed the early cases. It's all a gamble and probabilities, it's hard to know. To me, seeing we are left without any transparency, it depends now much on pure luck of being somehow chosen by an agent before they slow down and move on to the next month.

[Mr.So 56]

4 hours ago, Cheesehead22 said:

Finally!!! ♥️♥️♥️♥️♥️ I'm counting about a dozen approvals for April 1st so far!

Excuse me sir, Are you saying USCIS starts working on April cases today (12 cases completed) 😏?

[AndiB 662]

hm looking at trend of how many weeks before they start a new month on ave (3) and at what month estimate they start a new month on spread sheet (april started at 2.7/2.4 months ETA)....Oct seems to be estimated to start early to mid sept 🙀

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

2 minutes ago, AndiB said:

hm looking at trend of how many weeks before they start a new month on ave (3) and at what month estimate they start a new month on spread sheet (april started at 2.7/2.4 months ETA)....Oct seems to be estimated to start early to mid sept 🙀

I had a feeling this was the case and why I was asking about adding the 50% and 75% mark to the estimates because the spreadsheet shows worst case scenario, and for me and that is early November, but based on how USCIS is operating it might actually be from early September to early November.  

[Ok-Mix 117]

I was also thinking, things are moving faster than straight month-by-month!! 

[Quimat 154]

8 minutes ago, AndiB said:

hm looking at trend of how many weeks before they start a new month on ave (3) and at what month estimate they start a new month on spread sheet (april started at 2.7/2.4 months ETA)....Oct seems to be estimated to start early to mid sept 🙀

As an early/mid November filer, this makes my heart so happy!! 

Edited April 27, 2023 by Quimat

[wav_m 84]

Not convinced we're going to hit 5000 this month, but it still (touch wood) seems like it's been a good week!

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

16 minutes ago, wav_m said:

Not convinced we're going to hit 5000 this month, but it still (touch wood) seems like it's been a good week!

The big total number might not be there, but April has beaten March by a significant margin when you account for the length of the month. Doesn't make sense to track the monthly numbers because some months are shorter/longer than others. April has processed significantly more cases per day than March 240 to 220. If you take April's average per day and put it in March you have ~5,500 cases processed, if you put March's average per day in April you'd have 4,400 cases processed.

 

All that to Say April > March lol

 

Edited April 28, 2023 by FromMexico W/Love

[wav_m 84]

38 minutes ago, FromMexico W/Love said:

The big total number might not be there, but April has beaten March by a significant margin when you account for the length of the month. Doesn't make sense to track the monthly numbers because some months are shorter/longer than others. April has processed significantly more cases per day than March 240 to 220. If you take April's average per day and put it in March you have ~5,500 cases processed, if you put March's average per day in April you'd have 4,400 cases processed.

 

All that to Say April > March lol

 

This is so smart, you're right – also I have no idea what's happening in that gif but it's so satisfying to watch (kind of like the lines going up on the spreadsheet graphs).

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

Lol it is supposed to be apples and oranges 

[myohmyohmy 15]

I'm a natural worrier so now I'm worried about May 12 when Title 42 expires and they anticipate a big increase in asylum seekers which takes away resources from other departments.  Then the fall will be the budget battle (different than the upcoming debt ceiling battle) but the budget has led to government shutdowns, including 35 days during the last administration.  And with congress in such disarray I'm not optimistic.  But there's nothing I can do so hopefully things work out.  

[AndiB 662]

Just now, myohmyohmy said:

I'm a natural worrier so now I'm worried about May 12 when Title 42 expires and they anticipate a big increase in asylum seekers which takes away resources from other departments.  Then the fall will be the budget battle (different than the upcoming debt ceiling battle) but the budget has led to government shutdowns, including 35 days during the last administration.  And with congress in such disarray I'm not optimistic.  But there's nothing I can do so hopefully things work out.  

I dont like this view/concern about asylum seekers taking too many resources. They're not going to cause a slow down, I see this posted every month or so due to whatever else, last time all the mexicans just walking in was gonna cause a slow down.

 

I also didn't think government shut down affected uscis? They're funding is almost entirely by users, not government 

[wav_m 84]

6 minutes ago, AndiB said:

I also didn't think government shut down affected uscis? They're funding is almost entirely by users, not government 

Yeah, this site seems to suggest that USCIS being fee-based means it keeps ticking over as usual – at least it did during the last major shutdown. Hoping that's true! (I mean, I'm hoping there's no shutdown, but I think one can hope for the best while preparing for the absolutely unthinkably bad.)