Processing now up to 15months

[FilledesEtoiles 335]

4 minutes ago, Anna Hessler said:

I don’t think it will go up for years until it dies. 
 

My personal opinion (and this is just my opinion, do with it what you will) is that the backlog is permanent. This COVID damage will never be resolved. In order for the backlog to be reduced, they’d have to clear more cases than they receive. I’ve looked at data for the last 5-10 years or so, and this rarely happens. They usually meet the demand at best, they never do better. 
 

USCIS gets about 3400 applications per month. This has been a trend for years. For the backlog to be met and for processing time to remain stable, they’d have to clear ~850 cases per week. To reduce the backlog, they’d have to process at least 1000+ per week. That hasn’t happened in years. 
 

So I think the backlog is permanent. Barring anything that closely resembles a miracle, I don’t see them ever clearing the backlog. It might stop growing, but I don’t see it ever going away. Not significantly at least. The family visas are not a priority. Family visas don’t make the government any money. Work visas do. Work visas means more tax payers. 
 

But again, just my opinion based on my knowledge of what is important to the US federal government. 

Thank you for your insights, both of you. I was just worried it is a strategy to let the thing die. I can see why they prioritize work visas because companies are pushing, but people getting in on K1 will also end up to become tax payers. It's probably all very political. Yes, that covid backlog is huge and will take years to be treated. 

[AndiB 662]

2 minutes ago, FilledesEtoiles said:

Thank you for your insights, both of you. I was just worried it is a strategy to let the thing die. I can see why they prioritize work visas because companies are pushing, but people getting in on K1 will also end up to become tax payers. It's probably all very political. Yes, that covid backlog is huge and will take years to be treated. 

My understanding is the US has a big worker shortage partly because of COVID delaying or stopping immigration and then backlogs etc. Biden has said he's prioritising work visas because they need workers for the economy and to fight recession. You may be a tax payer or a contributor to the economy but on a family visa, your work and education is irrelevent so your 'value' as a worker is non-existent compared to someone applying for work or business.

[FilledesEtoiles 335]

22 minutes ago, AndiB said:

Tbh, I read somewhere staff take about 6months to onboard due to training and security which would explain the increase in processing in Oct, putting at us at about 6months since they announced the aim to improve. Maybe the processing will continue to gradually improve as staff join? Maybe I'm just dreaming 😂

Fingers crossed! lol

[MarJhi 926]

1 hour ago, AndiB said:

but they won't just move newer apps to the front of the line. It's too blatant

Sure they would, it's a perpetual game of "are we there yet" as they continually move the goalposts. The USCIS approval estimates are about as accurate as the local weatherman accurately predicting what the weather will be on a given day 6 months from now.

Edited November 4, 2022 by MarJhi

[AndiB 662]

21 minutes ago, MarJhi said:

Sure they would, it's a perpetual game of "are we there yet" as they continually move the goalposts. The USCIS approval estimates are about as accurate as the local weatherman accurately predicting what the weather will be on a given day 6 months from now.

I mean they're based on the prior 6months of data. They don't predict future trends. It is an accurate reflection based on timelines posted in these forums. 

[MarJhi 926]

11 hours ago, AndiB said:

I mean they're based on the prior 6months of data. They don't predict future trends. It is an accurate reflection based on timelines posted in these forums. 

Well when we filed with USCIS in late July 2021 the USCIS estimate was 8 months, then they moved it to 10, then 10.5, 11 and 14. It ended up being 15 months,  so I am not so sure how accurate those accurate reflections are.

 

Nothing I would like more than for people after us to have a 6 month timeline, but I will believe it when I see it.

[AndiB 662]

8 hours ago, MarJhi said:

Well when we filed with USCIS in late July 2021 the USCIS estimate was 8 months, then they moved it to 10, then 10.5, 11 and 14. It ended up being 15 months,  so I am not so sure how accurate those accurate reflections are.

 

Nothing I would like more than for people after us to have a 6 month timeline, but I will believe it when I see it.

Like I say, it's based on the previous 6 months and doesn't really say anything about what a new applicant or anyone midway through the wait should expect except 15months *minimum*. We know they aren't processing as many as they're receiving so that number will always go up each month as the queue grows. It's only an estimate if they're completing as many as they receive each week.

I agree about the 6months, I have hope it'll at least start barely increasing or maybe even plateau in the next 6months but I'd be shocked if they got the backlog down that fast. I imagine a more likely scenario is they manage to get it down a couple of months by Oct 2023 (so maybe back down to 13-15) but yeah...6, would be a shock

[GinoNiña 182]

What I don’t understand is the entire world has a lockdown for all of 2021 and most of 2020. The applicants should be way less than normal isn’t it? 

[usaman1999 17]

The processing time has increased from 6-8 months in August 2021 to now 15 months. This is nearly double. This constant moving the ball forward delays a Case Inquiry from being filed since the date to file one keeps moving forward. 

Edited November 5, 2022 by usaman1999

[AndiB 662]

48 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

What I don’t understand is the entire world has a lockdown for all of 2021 and most of 2020. The applicants should be way less than normal isn’t it? 

I haven't seen historical data but I doubt it. COVID made a lot of people aware of distance and motivated closing gaps. It also lead to a lot of people meeting. I met mine due to lockdown and I don't know if we'd ever have crossed paths otherwise. Work visas have also become more challenging to get.

People knowing it takes so long may also motivate applying earlier than they usually would, we wouldn't have applied now if it was still only 3months for instance.

[Mr.So 56]

We are seeing a small improvement in number of cases being processed per week in the last month. I think the number of cases will be processed in the next two months will be a good indicator of the wait time will increase, decrease or stable. But again it's holiday season.

Edited November 5, 2022 by Mr.So

[Lynxyonok 316]

2 hours ago, Mr.So said:

We are seeing a small improvement in number of cases being processed per week in the last month. I think the number of cases will be processed in the next two months will be a good indicator of the wait time will increase, decrease or stable. But again it's holiday season.

 

Yes, case processing rate is improving, but it's still subpar. A lot of slowing down took place during Q1 FYE 2022, right around when Omicron was knocking out people one after another last October into December. In addition, there was a puzzling choice by USCIS to concentrate on employment visas.

 

I would mildly disagree regarding a holiday season. While some countries have genuine weeklong shutdowns, such as Golden Week in China and New Year's holidays in Russia, U.S. government, in general, keeps plugging away around the clock as major holidays are spread out rather equally.

 

I will point out that submissions of all forms have spiked in 2022. I can't wait to see USCIS Q4 2022 (July - September) data due to be posted in 5 weeks. 

 

[Lynxyonok 316]

2 hours ago, AndiB said:

I haven't seen historical data but I doubt it. COVID made a lot of people aware of distance and motivated closing gaps. It also lead to a lot of people meeting. I met mine due to lockdown and I don't know if we'd ever have crossed paths otherwise. Work visas have also become more challenging to get.

People knowing it takes so long may also motivate applying earlier than they usually would, we wouldn't have applied now if it was still only 3months for instance.

 

Please see:

 

https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-and-studies/immigration-and-citizenship-data

 

And specifically:

 

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY2022_Q3.pdf

 

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY2022_Q2.pdf

 

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/reports/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY2022_Q1.pdf

[Lynxyonok 316]

3 hours ago, GinoNiña said:

What I don’t understand is the entire world has a lockdown for all of 2021 and most of 2020. The applicants should be way less than normal isn’t it? 

But people who do want to be with each other always find a way. Applicants did not go away; they got pent up and suddenly released the moment border crossing became easier.

 

The war in Ukraine and subsequent collapse of major worldwide currencies (but not US!) also made I-129F a popular choice. I am not judging; I'm merely connecting changes in data to world events.

 

2023 is going to see even a higher spike in applications.

 

 

[Lynxyonok 316]

On 11/4/2022 at 10:14 AM, AndiB said:

The 15month estimate is for *current* people coming up on their NOA2 expected date. By the time we get to the front of the line it'll most likely be longer than 15months. Different people have different estimates but https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-j8oeknNu89pFRZLEWSwwQ seems to be in line with the kind of estimates I get. So for you, at the current trend it'd be Oct 2023.

This could improve, it already has in the last few months. Mine went from 24 months to 20 so I would just keep an eye on the trends and estimate the worst, hope for the best

 

No, the estimate is not for current applicants, it's a reflection of what has been completed to date.

 

In the 9 months of FYE 2022, USCIS has fallen behind half a month every month. In other words, someone who applies today is now facing 15 x 1.5 = 22.5 months of waiting.

 

December 31, 2021: 36K pending applications

March 31, 2022: 42K

June 30, 2022: 50K

 

A callout to everyone: if you haven't written to your Senator yet about this... you ought to.