Processing now up to 15months

[AndiB 655]

Probably not a shock to anyone but officially 15months on website now and will continue to increase as we're only at ~500 processed/week v ~800 new/week.

Positive is they've almost doubled the number processed per week compared to april so hoping that'll continue

[Chancy 6,233]

*** Moved from K1 Process & Procedures to K1 Progress Reports -- topic is about processing estimates ***

 

[Lynxyonok 316]

1 hour ago, AndiB said:

Probably not a shock to anyone but officially 15months on website now and will continue to increase as we're only at ~500 processed/week v ~800 new/week.

Positive is they've almost doubled the number processed per week compared to april so hoping that'll continue

Ironic, considering that the average time spent on adjudicating an I-129F is 40 minutes.

 

https://www.regulations.gov/document/USCIS-2019-0010-0001

[AndiB 655]

16 minutes ago, Lynxyonok said:

Ironic, considering that the average time spent on adjudicating an I-129F is 40 minutes.

 

https://www.regulations.gov/document/USCIS-2019-0010-0001

I will admit I didn't go through with a fine tooth comb but only 40min I see is for the non-immigrant worker I-129, not I-129F

It's also from 2019

[Lynxyonok 316]

2 hours ago, AndiB said:

I will admit I didn't go through with a fine tooth comb but only 40min I see is for the non-immigrant worker I-129, not I-129F

It's also from 2019

It's in table 6, line 11. 2019 is also the latest data available as they had to prove reasons for 25% fee increase.

 

Table 6—Completion Rates per Benefit Request

Immigration benefit request	Service-wide completion rate
<snip>
I-129F Petition for Alien Fiancé(e)	0.67

[AndiB 655]

17 hours ago, Lynxyonok said:

It's in table 6, line 11. 2019 is also the latest data available as they had to prove reasons for 25% fee increase.

 

Table 6—Completion Rates per Benefit Request

Immigration benefit request	Service-wide completion rate
<snip>
I-129F Petition for Alien Fiancé(e)	0.67

ah I couldn't fully comprehend what that meant. I would be

shocked if it was only 40mins to go through everything

Edited November 3, 2022 by AndiB

[Lynxyonok 316]

6 hours ago, AndiB said:

ah I couldn't fully comprehend what that meant. I would be

shocked if it was only 40mins to go through everything

I'm shocked they got Congress to agree that $535 is a fair price for 40 minutes of work.

 

Even lawyers charge less. 😅

[Mr.So 56]

At this rate how can they meet their goal of 6 months processing time by the end of 2023? Am I missing something?

Edited November 4, 2022 by Mr.So

[MarJhi 920]

1 hour ago, Mr.So said:

At this rate how can they meet their goal of 6 months processing time by the end of 2023? Am I missing something?

Be careful what you wish for. The 6 month processing time by the end of 2023 goal will encourage them to prioritize new applications sooner so they can say they got them done in the 6 month time frame. Applications that are already beyond that time-frame might be pushed aside.

 

But personally I think it's just a bunch of pre election talk designed to convince the voters they are improving the process.

[Anna Hessler 119]

6 hours ago, Mr.So said:

At this rate how can they meet their goal of 6 months processing time by the end of 2023? Am I missing something?

They're not going to, unfortunately. And they never were going to. It wasn't a reasonable goal and we all knew it. It was just a government agency blowing smoke to placate people.

 

Reducing the backlog from 15 months to 6 months in less than a year would require nearly 2,500 cases processed per week. We barely clear 700. Theres a bunch of people analyzing numbers each week in addition to myself, and we all seem to have roughly similar data. If the trend continues (which, I don't see why it wouldn't. We haven't been given any indications of change.) the backlog will still grow by 0.25 - 0.5 months per month. I don't see the backlog going away at all, much less be reduced to something as low as 6 months. 

 

I hate to be the negative downer, but unfortunately this is just the reality of it. K1 visas are not a priority to USCIS. If you watch the latest USCIS videos, the "fireside chat," it is an hour and 15 minutes of them patting themselves on the back with how great they did in FY2022. They talk about what a great job they did with the work visas and not allowing EADs to expire. I personally think the only thing we can hope for is premium processing offered for K1s. I'm not sure if they'll ever do it though. I'd certainly pay $10k to not have to wait ~18+ months. 

 

Again, very sorry to give nothing but bad news. It's not fun for me either. 

[Gary Rich 202]

27 minutes ago, Anna Hessler said:

They're not going to, unfortunately. And they never were going to. It wasn't a reasonable goal and we all knew it. It was just a government agency blowing smoke to placate people.

 

Reducing the backlog from 15 months to 6 months in less than a year would require nearly 2,500 cases processed per week. We barely clear 700. Theres a bunch of people analyzing numbers each week in addition to myself, and we all seem to have roughly similar data. If the trend continues (which, I don't see why it wouldn't. We haven't been given any indications of change.) the backlog will still grow by 0.25 - 0.5 months per month. I don't see the backlog going away at all, much less be reduced to something as low as 6 months. 

 

I hate to be the negative downer, but unfortunately this is just the reality of it. K1 visas are not a priority to USCIS. If you watch the latest USCIS videos, the "fireside chat," it is an hour and 15 minutes of them patting themselves on the back with how great they did in FY2022. They talk about what a great job they did with the work visas and not allowing EADs to expire. I personally think the only thing we can hope for is premium processing offered for K1s. I'm not sure if they'll ever do it though. I'd certainly pay $10k to not have to wait ~18+ months. 

 

Again, very sorry to give nothing but bad news. It's not fun for me either. 

Good Day.. I just want to follow up on something that you are saying ( I'm not perfect here but I'll try ) USCIS push their waiting time up to 15 months ( correct ) So what if a person already has 12 or 13 months in.. ( right ) would that mean only an extra 2 or 3 months  will be added to the time in, in which the case would be at 15 months.. so in other words.. case's that are 10 , 11, 12 months in.. would only have to wait a few more months.. ( I'm hoping i made sense here) Thank you

[FilledesEtoiles 335]

27 minutes ago, Anna Hessler said:

They're not going to, unfortunately. And they never were going to. It wasn't a reasonable goal and we all knew it. It was just a government agency blowing smoke to placate people.

 

Reducing the backlog from 15 months to 6 months in less than a year would require nearly 2,500 cases processed per week. We barely clear 700. Theres a bunch of people analyzing numbers each week in addition to myself, and we all seem to have roughly similar data. If the trend continues (which, I don't see why it wouldn't. We haven't been given any indications of change.) the backlog will still grow by 0.25 - 0.5 months per month. I don't see the backlog going away at all, much less be reduced to something as low as 6 months. 

 

I hate to be the negative downer, but unfortunately this is just the reality of it. K1 visas are not a priority to USCIS. If you watch the latest USCIS videos, the "fireside chat," it is an hour and 15 minutes of them patting themselves on the back with how great they did in FY2022. They talk about what a great job they did with the work visas and not allowing EADs to expire. I personally think the only thing we can hope for is premium processing offered for K1s. I'm not sure if they'll ever do it though. I'd certainly pay $10k to not have to wait ~18+ months. 

 

Again, very sorry to give nothing but bad news. It's not fun for me either. 

So do you think it will go up for years/months until they let it die in a corner?

It is probably a strategy to come to that.

Almost 8 months in, a bit late to change to spousal, I wish we did early on, but we just didn't know ...

[AndiB 655]

58 minutes ago, Gary Rich said:

Good Day.. I just want to follow up on something that you are saying ( I'm not perfect here but I'll try ) USCIS push their waiting time up to 15 months ( correct ) So what if a person already has 12 or 13 months in.. ( right ) would that mean only an extra 2 or 3 months  will be added to the time in, in which the case would be at 15 months.. so in other words.. case's that are 10 , 11, 12 months in.. would only have to wait a few more months.. ( I'm hoping i made sense here) Thank you

yes, it's an average of the last 6months so most are already on 15-16month timetables. Yours will, as things stand, most likely take 15months-ish, so yes a couple more months. 
The timeline is always a current, or most current one. People who just applied are likely to be waiting longer than 15months

[AndiB 655]

1 hour ago, Anna Hessler said:

They're not going to, unfortunately. And they never were going to. It wasn't a reasonable goal and we all knew it. It was just a government agency blowing smoke to placate people.

 

Reducing the backlog from 15 months to 6 months in less than a year would require nearly 2,500 cases processed per week. We barely clear 700. Theres a bunch of people analyzing numbers each week in addition to myself, and we all seem to have roughly similar data. If the trend continues (which, I don't see why it wouldn't. We haven't been given any indications of change.) the backlog will still grow by 0.25 - 0.5 months per month. I don't see the backlog going away at all, much less be reduced to something as low as 6 months. 

 

I hate to be the negative downer, but unfortunately this is just the reality of it. K1 visas are not a priority to USCIS. If you watch the latest USCIS videos, the "fireside chat," it is an hour and 15 minutes of them patting themselves on the back with how great they did in FY2022. They talk about what a great job they did with the work visas and not allowing EADs to expire. I personally think the only thing we can hope for is premium processing offered for K1s. I'm not sure if they'll ever do it though. I'd certainly pay $10k to not have to wait ~18+ months. 

 

Again, very sorry to give nothing but bad news. It's not fun for me either. 

I agree that the chances of it going to 6months feel close to nill unless a dramatic shift happens soon but the trend has improved. The amount being processed almost doubled from april to october this year. It's just that it's not enough to off set the backlog. I don't think they've just left K1's to die and I do think 6months seems very unrealistic unless they know something we don't that will equate to 1000+ cases processed per week soon, ie another doubling. They're definitely improving, we just have to hope it continues and maybe more rapidly than it has in the past. 

New staff and new technology takes forever to implement and from what I read on another forum here, USCIS has high turn over so even with a lot of new hires, it may not be as many as they'd hoped with others leaving.

[AndiB 655]

6 hours ago, MarJhi said:

Be careful what you wish for. The 6 month processing time by the end of 2023 goal will encourage them to prioritize new applications sooner so they can say they got them done in the 6 month time frame. Applications that are already beyond that time-frame might be pushed aside.

 

But personally I think it's just a bunch of pre election talk designed to convince the voters they are improving the process.

they won't, if it was that simple, they'd already prioritise newer applications to look better. They do seem to 'move on' to a new month faster than they maybe did in the past to improve numbers but they won't just move newer apps to the front of the line. It's too blatant