Any reason NOT to withdraw K1 and do CR-1 instead for Philippines??

[Adventine 3,187]

@bmfj you need to understand that the US embassy Manila has a process to renew B1/B2 visas through dropbox, without interviews. Basically people who have had tourist visas before and respected the terms of their visas can renew through dropbox. This explains the vast majority of those approvals.

[Katopo 0]

2 hours ago, bmfj said:

That’s even if miraculously the USA finds itself on the green list. Doubt that’ll happen. Sometimes I just want to scream and do about 20 mins on a punching bag. And then there’s the offloading issue about meeting in a 3rd country. Wonder if being married helps with that 🤔. Anyone know? 

We're a week away from our second trip to Dubai, just trying to keep hope afloat as we spend Christmas together. Phils Immigration agents will again do their damndest to offload my partner, in spite of her being an experienced international traveler with formidable documentation. Being married would absolutely help avoid offloading, but isn't strictly necessary. The key items we prepare are: Affidavit of Support and Undertaking, travel insurance policy, my last four pay stubs, photos of us together to show proof of relationship, her employment certificate and proof of approved leave. She also did her CFO counseling and has a temp certificate for that. Inevitably, the BOI agent will try to intimidate her and make her think she can't get on her flight. They'll ask questions like, "Why doesn't you fiancé visit you here in the Phils?" She has to smile, be polite and confident, and treat them like they're doing an important job, protecting her from the outside world.

 

I wouldn't expect the U.S. to ever make the Green List, either because of the current administration's politics or even based on COVID-19 transmission rates. Once vaccinated tourists from Green List countries are allowed back in, though, one option is to spend 14 days in the UAE together before you both travel back to the Phils. Once there, I don't expect there would be problems staying longer.

[NoMansLand2020 298]

I believe Manila should be close to hitting 400+ interviews a month now. If you look at the interview scheduling slots, they do K1 interviews on Thursdays. There are roughly 12-15 slots every 15 minutes and I believe they start at 0630 and go until 1200.

[bmfj 2]

Looking at the K1 numbers from Aug-Oct, and It’s a small sample size, but from Aug to Oct there is around a 213% increase in processing. If you account for the time it takes to send/email/call for interview notices plus the few extra days for the medicals, then Nov’s numbers should be far more than the 229 they did in Oct. At a 100% increase, It’s still far short of Sept 2019 which was 567. Even at 567, I’ve seen estimates of well over 7,500 backlog. And that was stats from June. Now could be 10,000+. They’d need to be knocking down 1000 a month to seriously cut into that stack. I’m sure the USEM is under pressure with the lawsuit and Biden’s immigration agenda. Probably why they inserted the new Charge de Affairs in Sept. 

[flicks1998 1,044]

6 hours ago, bmfj said:

Looking at the K1 numbers from Aug-Oct, and It’s a small sample size, but from Aug to Oct there is around a 213% increase in processing. If you account for the time it takes to send/email/call for interview notices plus the few extra days for the medicals, then Nov’s numbers should be far more than the 229 they did in Oct. At a 100% increase, It’s still far short of Sept 2019 which was 567. Even at 567, I’ve seen estimates of well over 7,500 backlog. And that was stats from June. Now could be 10,000+. They’d need to be knocking down 1000 a month to seriously cut into that stack. I’m sure the USEM is under pressure with the lawsuit and Biden’s immigration agenda. Probably why they inserted the new Charge de Affairs in Sept. 

The lawsuits are still sitting on a desk in either DC or Maryland and havent been looked at by a judge in many months.  This is one of the complaints that those attorneys have as well as some of the people who are involved in those lawsuits.  There has been no action or decision for USEM to jump and that takes into effect the lawsuits in Dec 2020 and April 2021.  The ones who have received interviews in those groups got them because their cases just came up for interview, not because they sued.  I doubt USEM even knows there are lawsuits.

 

Most immigration attorneys will tell you that both the previous administration and current administration have been a disaster for immigration, and Im not just referencing to K1s but across the board immigration in general.  Ive heard through my Immigration & Foreign Service friends that they have been able to increase staffing at USEM to handle more visas each month.  State Department had mass resignations over the last 2-3 years and from the stories I have heard, rightfully so. 

 

Any backlog for K1s should have reached its peak by now.  With the requirement of meeting in the last two years and now approaching the 2 year mark on when the Philippines shut down, I doubt there are many new K1 cases being filed for the Philippines. 

 

The recent months increase in processing of cases is encouraging and hopefully that trend will continue.  My only concern for progress would be that the Philippines overreacts and starts shutting down again.  Hopefully the PI government was listening to the WHO when they said lockdowns did not help contain a virus, but only leads to hurting economies etc.  I guess that part remains to be seen. 

Edited December 8, 2021 by flicks1998

[Karabast39 11]

On 12/8/2021 at 12:32 AM, bmfj said:

Looking at the K1 numbers from Aug-Oct, and It’s a small sample size, but from Aug to Oct there is around a 213% increase in processing. If you account for the time it takes to send/email/call for interview notices plus the few extra days for the medicals, then Nov’s numbers should be far more than the 229 they did in Oct. At a 100% increase, It’s still far short of Sept 2019 which was 567. Even at 567, I’ve seen estimates of well over 7,500 backlog. And that was stats from June. Now could be 10,000+. They’d need to be knocking down 1000 a month to seriously cut into that stack. I’m sure the USEM is under pressure with the lawsuit and Biden’s immigration agenda. Probably why they inserted the new Charge de Affairs in Sept. 

LOL, this had nothing to do with why there was a new Charge de Affairs.  The tour of the previous one -- who was the Deputy Chief of Mission-- had simply come to an end.  U.S. Embassies everywhere are clearly mandated by the State Department to tailor operations to protect the health and safety of their employees based on their local COVID environment.  Consular's visa operations are currently tiered to the importance of national interest, with tourists being the lowest rung of the ladder (imagine a 100,000+ B1/B2 backlog.)  U.S. Embassy Manila has lost employees to COVID, employees have lost family members to COVID, they've remained open despite very difficult conditions, local lockdowns, and hiring freezes in Consular Affairs due to the dramatic drop in visa fees (consular operations are almost exclusively visa fee-funded, not taxpayer funded).  There is a limit to how many people they can have in the waiting room at one time while maintaining social distancing, which limits how many they can schedule. There are other extenuating factors to which you and I are both ignorant.  Calm down. 

[GinoNiña 182]

On 12/8/2021 at 3:47 AM, flicks1998 said:

The lawsuits are still sitting on a desk in either DC or Maryland and havent been looked at by a judge in many months.  This is one of the complaints that those attorneys have as well as some of the people who are involved in those lawsuits.  There has been no action or decision for USEM to jump and that takes into effect the lawsuits in Dec 2020 and April 2021.  The ones who have received interviews in those groups got them because their cases just came up for interview, not because they sued.  I doubt USEM even knows there are lawsuits.

 

Most immigration attorneys will tell you that both the previous administration and current administration have been a disaster for immigration, and Im not just referencing to K1s but across the board immigration in general.  Ive heard through my Immigration & Foreign Service friends that they have been able to increase staffing at USEM to handle more visas each month.  State Department had mass resignations over the last 2-3 years and from the stories I have heard, rightfully so. 

 

Any backlog for K1s should have reached its peak by now.  With the requirement of meeting in the last two years and now approaching the 2 year mark on when the Philippines shut down, I doubt there are many new K1 cases being filed for the Philippines. 

 

The recent months increase in processing of cases is encouraging and hopefully that trend will continue.  My only concern for progress would be that the Philippines overreacts and starts shutting down again.  Hopefully the PI government was listening to the WHO when they said lockdowns did not help contain a virus, but only leads to hurting economies etc.  I guess that part remains to be seen. 

Hi I’m new here and I would like chime in but not to debunk you. It’s now  a 4 months old topic. 

Let’s say fiscal years 2020 and 2021 has zero K1 applicants and the same time it’s jus 50 k1 visa issued per month. Year 2020 and 2021, they only issued 1200 K1 visa.   Let’s take VJ historical data for now, they were saying at pre Covid they were issuing 500 or more a month. On the same data, k1 issuance is 50 for year 2022 and 2021.  If you do the math, k1 back 

log would come close to 10k.

 

Now let’s say they are back to pre Covid amount this year and beyond. It would still take  them 2 years to catch up. 
Correct me if I am wrong.

 

noa1 received 03/31/2022.

k1 visa 

[RO_AH 1,627]

3 hours ago, GinoNiña said:

Hi I’m new here and I would like chime in but not to debunk you. It’s now  a 4 months old topic. 

Let’s say fiscal years 2020 and 2021 has zero K1 applicants and the same time it’s jus 50 k1 visa issued per month. Year 2020 and 2021, they only issued 1200 K1 visa.   Let’s take VJ historical data for now, they were saying at pre Covid they were issuing 500 or more a month. On the same data, k1 issuance is 50 for year 2022 and 2021.  If you do the math, k1 back 

log would come close to 10k.

 

Now let’s say they are back to pre Covid amount this year and beyond. It would still take  them 2 years to catch up. 
Correct me if I am wrong.

 

noa1 received 03/31/2022.

k1 visa 

You are getting too into the numbers again to understand the full scope of things. There are way too many variables that you are leaving out of the consideration. There is no way of knowing the actual backlog without guessing. Some people abandoned their K1 and went with CR1. Some relationships I am sure ended due to the long separation. So far in 2022 there are probably very few new applicants because PI just opened up. I believe your 10k estimate is too high. Either way they will get to them when they get to them. I doubt there is any backlog for CR-1s so the numbers for K1s should keep increasing as they pull out of the affects of Covid.

 

Immigration takes long. One member here had an interview date scheduled for the day the USEM shut down. Waited about 2 years. Be glad you're not that guy. My wife was very close to her completion when we had the lock down, our process took 3 years. It takes as long as it takes and all we can do is wait and be as prepared as possible when each step in the process comes up.

[GinoNiña 182]

Hello, can I ask you your noa1 date? Thanks

[Kawika & Michelle 108]

So how many have actually scrapped their K1 applications to do a CR1 instead? We've been hearing of friends who went the CR1 route go from NOA1 in November 2021 to their embassy interview later this week. There was no expediate for their case. We're K1 filers who are at NOA1 as of October 2021...still waiting for NOA2 & so forth.