Upcoming july visa bulletin 2014

[MalcomX 1]

for sure you will have it for august and on the top of that the first week

Hi Rafikbo76 , when do you think CEAC will update the visa data for next CN ? Till May 3 is around 32950, referred to your last sheet. Mine is EU369XX and I am so nervous about getting an interview date in August or not.

RG

Artan

[Sloner 0]

That is true, but it does mean that I possess something that is not found in young people such as yourself... wisdom.

being old does not mean to be wise.

[Kayend 0]

So kayend, according to ur predication seems like I have no chance rt? 105xx Nepal.

I don't know really when Nepal will stop and at what CN. My prediction is that in 7425 to 8900, Nepal should have the most selectees in this range because Iran should be slowing down since Iran already has more than 3500 interview scheduled up to 7425 CN. For Nepal, it has 2.8k up to 7425 CN, so I would expect Nepal to have 3500 selectees up to 8900. With the success rate that Nepal is having, I would say you are pretty close. Need to wait for CEAC data to know how dense is Nepalis in 7425 to 8900 and that will give a very good idea what is your chances.

[Kayend 0]

Ethiopia has taken many times over 3600 and 3700 visas...

Yes, I checked the statistics Ethiopia did have few years that it has more than 3500. So that question will be, does Ethiopia also have the same situation of Iran in DV13, where everyone in that region already get their interviews and regional quota still have visa available and it open up the so called quota from NACARA. Or they just allow it to go up to 3850 even that is a clear rule stated that no country can go 7% of the 50k. It will be interesting to see how they handle Nepal case in DV14.

[Britsimon 18]

being old does not mean to be wise.

Absolutely. Given time, I am sure you will go on to prove that statement.

Edited May 10, 2014 by Britsimon

[Sloner 0]

I think in Nepal and Iran will be identical to the situation last year. In September announced that visa ran out.

[Kayend 0]

I think in Nepal and Iran will be identical to the situation last year. In September announced that visa ran out.

I have sure Nepal will hit the country limit either in Aug and Sept but I am not so sure about Iran. The speed of Iran AP clearing will decide whether Iran will hit their country limit or not.

[SusieQQQ 11,585]

Yes, I checked the statistics Ethiopia did have few years that it has more than 3500. So that question will be, does Ethiopia also have the same situation of Iran in DV13, where everyone in that region already get their interviews and regional quota still have visa available and it open up the so called quota from NACARA. Or they just allow it to go up to 3850 even that is a clear rule stated that no country can go 7% of the 50k. It will be interesting to see how they handle Nepal case in DV14.

The clear rule is actually not "7% of 50k"... It is 7% of the "available visas".

Also re the "so-called" Nacara quota, don't forget that the original act gave DV 55k visas. At some stage 5k were set aside for Nacara, and the wording has always in fact been that "up to" 5k could go to Nacara. So there is not really any doubt that the total legal amount available to DV in the absence of anything being used for Nacara is indeed 55k.

Edited May 10, 2014 by SusieQQQ

[Kayend 0]

The clear rule is actually not "7% of 50k"... It is 7% of the "available visas".

Also re the "so-called" Nacara quota, don't forget that the original act gave DV 55k visas. At some stage 5k were set aside for Nacara, and the wording has always in fact been that "up to" 5k could go to Nacara. So there is not really any doubt that the total legal amount available to DV in the absence of anything being used for Nacara is indeed 55k.

I understand that NACARA was taken from DV and all this years DV can take those unused NACARA quota. But officially it is still 50k for DV. And yes you can still use the NACARA quota when any country reached 3500, the question is when can they do it? NACARA also in progress the moment some country in DV hit the 3500? I don't know whether KCC has the unlock period which I think it should and it should be in Sept. Edited May 10, 2014 by Kayend

[Alex2014 0]

I have sure Nepal will hit the country limit either in Aug and Sept but I am not so sure about Iran. The speed of Iran AP clearing will decide whether Iran will hit their country limit or not.

I agree more with Kayend. The fate of high CN selectees from the rest of Asia depends primarily on the AP clearing rate of Iran.

As Kayend said, it usually takes 3 to 6 months to clear AP. If it holds true, then high CN selectees can definitely benefit from it.

If Nepal and Iran really take up to 70~75% of visas available for Asia in the end, I will call DV 2014 in Asia as "Duopoly Visa" rather than "Diversity Visa".

[SusieQQQ 11,585]

I understand that NACARA was taken from DV and all this years DV can take those unused NACARA quota. But officially it is still 50k for DV. And yes you can still use the NACARA quota when any country reached 3500, the question is when can they do it? NACARA also in progress the moment some country in DV hit the 3500? I don't know whether KCC has the unlock period which I think it should and it should be in Sept.

From what I remember nacara has only used between 100-200 visas the past few years. It is not really an issue from a DV perspective anymore. And DV2015 selectees have reported that their selection letters mentioned 55k visas being available.

[franko 2]

From what I remember nacara has only used between 100-200 visas the past few years. It is not really an issue from a DV perspective anymore. And DV2015 selectees have reported that their selection letters mentioned 55k visas being available.

I have seen a screenshot of the letter and I did not see 55k mentioned ?

Have a look at post número tres. This letter looks exactly like my 2014 notification letter except for DS260 part.

http://greencard.by/community/forum/forum27/topic6373/?PAGEN_1=1

[franko 2]

From what I remember nacara has only used between 100-200 visas the past few years. It is not really an issue from a DV perspective anymore. And DV2015 selectees have reported that their selection letters mentioned 55k visas being available.

I have seen a screenshot of the letter and I did not see 55k mentioned ?

Have a look at post número tres. This letter looks exactly like my 2014 notification letter except for DS260 part.

http://greencard.by/community/forum/forum27/topic6373/?PAGEN_1=1

[SusieQQQ 11,585]

I have seen a screenshot of the letter and I did not see 55k mentioned ?

Have a look at post número tres. This letter looks exactly like my 2014 notification letter except for DS260 part.

http://greencard.by/community/forum/forum27/topic6373/?PAGEN_1=1

I haven't seen a screenshot but I saw a few posts on forums saying that was what their letters said...I picked up on it instantly.

In any case this is the DoS guide.

http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/87838.pdf

On page 1 they talk about UP TO 5k being used for Nacara.

Perhaps more interesting if you look at page 2 where they talk about the geographical quotas, they mention it being based on....55000 visas. The logical conclusions from that is that 7% of available visas is 7% of 55k. I don't think any of us are entirely clear about the process of "reallocating" nacara visa quotas but if there is to all intents and purposes no usage of DV by nacara anymore it seems pretty obvious to me that it's not very difficult to issue more than 3500 per country ...as we have seen a few times.... Or to issue more than 50k non-nacara in total... As we have seen a few times too. It is absolutely not the case that Iran last year was a one-off special circumstance. The data is all there and shows repeatedly that 50k is not at all a hard limit.

[SusieQQQ 11,585]

Some evidence:

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/DV-2014-Instructions-Translations/FY12AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf

This is 10 years worth of stats, 2003-2012

Egypt exceeded 3500 in 2005, 2006 and 2007

In fully 7 of those years, Ethiopia exceeded 3500

Bangladesh exceeded 3500 in 2007

Uzbekistan exceeded 3500 in 2011

In 2003, 2010 and 2011, total DV visa issuance exceeded 50k

And obviously we know Iran last year exceeded 3500 too...not sure if there were any other "exceptions" last year?

There are enough "exceptions" to conclude that 50k is not a hard limit either in terms of overall visas or as a basis for the 7% rule.