Last chance for Syrian regime

[scandal 951]

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/trudy-rubin/133120028.html

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Last chance for Syrian regime

Cairo, Egypt. Even as it continues to kill protesters, Syria accepted an Arab League plan today that calls on Damascus to end the fighting, and start talking to the Syrian opposition.

The plan requires Syria to implement an immediate ceasefire, withdraw its military forces from all cities; release thousands of opposition detainees and permit Arab media and independent observers to enter the country. If these conditions are met, the plan calls for a dialogue to begin within two weeks, at the Arab League headquarters in Cairo, between Syrian officials and Syrian opposition leaders, including those inside the country and the recently formed Syrian National Council of leaders-in-exile.

Syria initially resisted the Cairo venue, but Arab League officials insisted that a neutral location was required. I asked Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, who was in Cairo for Wednesday’s Arab League meeting, whether he thought the Syrians were serious.

Zebari, who helped persuade the Syrians to sign on, admits that “many believe the Syrians are buying time to relieve the pressures on them.” He says that Syrian leaders “are banking that the opposition will reject the plan,” but external Syrian opposition leaders are not rejecting it outright. Instead they are waiting to see if Syria implements a ceasefire.

The Saudis, and other Arab Gulf countries “don’t have much faith in Syria’s promises,” Zebari said. “This is the last opportunity” for Damascus, he added. “Two weeks from today is the deadline.”

The Arab League took action to stop the Syrian bloodletting as it became clear that the international community was unlikely to do so, especially after Russia and China vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution harshly critical of Damascus.

Arab leaders are tremendously nervous about an all out Syrian civil war that would pit majority Sunnis against Syria’s Alawite (Shiite) leadership, and reignite sectarian conflicts around the region. Iraq is especially worried. Syria is a close ally of Iran, and if its president falls, the Iranians may focus more intently on exerting influence inside Iraq.

If Syria reneges on the Arab League plan, more pressure is likely to be applied by neighboring Turkey. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is said to be incensed by the behavior of Syrian President Bashar al Assad, who rebuffed extensive Turkish mediation efforts. Turkish officials believe the Syrian regime can’t be reformed, and Ankara is already permitting defecting Syrian army officers to find shelter across the border in Turkey.

Zebari says that, if Syria rebuffs the Arab league, Turkey is likely to “impose many sanctions”, including restrictions on trade and free movement across the Syrian-Turkish border; both have become essential to the Syrian economy.

Rumors are swirling here about stepped up Saudi financing for Syrian rebels and the possibility that opposition activists could receive military training in Turkey, perhaps leading ultimately to another NATO no-fly zone over parts of Syria. So far NATO has squelched such ideas, nor is there any Western appetite for another Mideast military adventure.

What is clear is that, as Zebari said, this is probably Assad’s last chance to avoid a far bloodier civil war that will eventually do him in.

Posted by Trudy Rubin @ 8:08 PM Permalink | Post a comment

[luckytxn 2,263]

From all I have seen Assad has the military force and is not afraid to use it liberally to quell any dissent at anytime anywhere. Checkmate.

[scandal 951]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/03/us-syria-idUSTRE7A13MA20111103

Dozens killed in Syrian city of Homs, day after Arab deal

(Reuters) - Dozens were killed in the Syrian city of Homs on Thursday, activists said, in a burst of violence following reports of sectarian killings this week that threaten to ignite civil strife between majority Sunnis and the minority Alawite sect.

Tanks pounded a main residential district in Homs for the second day, and there was no sign of troops leaving cities under an Arab League agreement to end bloodshed after seven months of protests against President Bashar al-Assad, whose Alawite sect dominates power.

A witness, who declined to be named, said he saw dozens of civilian bodies at the National Hospital, which is under security forces' control. The circumstances of their death were not clear.

"They were all males with bullet wounds. A doctor told me they came from all over Homs," he said.

Activists said a further 19 people were killed in tank shelling of the Bab Amro district, a hotbed of pro-democracy protests against President Bashar al-Assad, and in shooting by security forces elsewhere in Homs.

There was no independent confirmation of the killings. They follow reports by local activists that forces loyal to Assad shot dead at least 11 Sunni Muslim villagers they had stopped at a roadblock northwest of Homs on Wednesday.

Nine Alawites had been dragged from a bus and killed near the city the day before, another activist said.

Tough Syrian media restrictions have made it hard to verify events on the ground since an uprising against Assad began in March, inspired by other revolts in the Arab world.

Syria, under mounting pressure to halt a crackdown that the United Nations says has killed over 3,000 people, agreed on Wednesday to an Arab League plan to pull the army out of cities, free political prisoners and hold talks with the opposition.

The authorities blame the violence on Islamist militants and armed gangs who they say have killed 1,100 soldiers and police.

ISOLATION FEAR

Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Elaraby briefed members of the main opposition National Council on the plan in Cairo.

"We did not talk with the secretary-general about a dialogue with the regime," council member Samir Nashar was quoted by Egypt's MENA news agency as saying after the meeting.

"We discussed entering negotiations with the authorities to move from a totalitarian to a democratic system, and demanded that President Assad leaves power."

Assad's critics have dismissed his past offers of dialogue, with some saying bloodshed must stop first and others saying that only his resignation can end the conflict.

Paris-based Burhan Ghalioun, a leading National Council member, questioned whether Syria would implement the plan.

"The regime has accepted the Arab initiative out of fear of Arab isolation, its weakness and lack of options. But its acceptance does not mean it will respect its clauses," he wrote.

In Syria, some demonstrators celebrated the Arab League initiative, but residents and activists said troops remained in cities and security operations continued, especially in Homs.

Tanks fired heavy machineguns and anti-aircraft guns in the city's Bab Amro district, a hotbed of protests and scene of operations by the military against insurgents hiding there.

In other districts of Homs, a city of one million, army snipers were shooting from rooftops and soldiers fired from checkpoints.

"We slept late because there were overnight street rallies celebrating the Arab initiative. This morning we woke up to rain and shelling," Samer, an activist in Bab Amro, said by phone.

EXPLOSIONS ROCK CITY

Another resident said the sound of explosions was rocking the city, and activists were calling on people to donate blood for makeshift hospitals in and around the center of Homs.

Activists and residents reported army reinforcements at roadblocks in towns across the southern Hauran Plain, where troops fired in the air to disperse overnight protests.

Early in the morning, an armored column fired machineguns in the air after entering al-Madiq castle near the Roman ruins of Apamea in the Ghab Plain, which has seen protests and has emerged as a refuge for army defectors, local activists said.

In the Damascus suburb of Harasta, at least 120 protesters were arrested overnight after celebrating the Arab League deal, a resident said.

The International Committee of the Red Cross said on Wednesday it was pressing Syria for wider access to thousands of detainees arrested in pro-democracy protests.

Western sanctions and growing criticism from Turkey and Arab neighbors have raised pressure on Syria to end the bloodshed.

"We are happy to have reached this agreement and we will be even happier when it is implemented immediately," said Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani of Qatar, which leads an Arab League committee behind the plan agreed in Cairo.

China, which along with Russia, has resisted imposing U.N sanctions on Syria, welcomed the Arab League plan.

"We believe this marks an important step toward easing the situation in Syria and the early launching of an inclusive political process with broad participation from all parties in Syria," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said.

Despite the latest violence, Sami Baroudi, a political analyst at the Lebanese American University in Beirut, said it was too early to judge whether Syria would honor the agreement.

"It will take at least a couple of days to see whether the intensity of violence is going down or up, or staying at the same level," Baroudi said. "I wouldn't throw this initiative into the waste basket because nothing happened immediately."

After the deal was announced in Cairo, the United States reiterated its call for the Syrian president to quit.

The Arab League has not suspended Syria's membership or backed international intervention, as it did against Libya's Muammar Gaddafi's, who was toppled by NATO-backed rebels.

[scandal 951]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/08/us-syria-idUSTRE7A62Z520111108

Syria crackdown toll rises despite Arab peace deal: U.N.

AMMAN (Reuters) - More than 3,500 people have been killed in Syria's crackdown on protesters, the United Nations said Tuesday, as the military pressed its campaign to put down resistance in the city of Homs against President Bashar al-Assad's rule.

Despite an agreement to end the assault against what the government says are "armed gangs," the United Nations and activists said troops and militiamen loyal to Assad had extended their control over Homs after six days of bombardment.

"The brutal government crackdown on dissent in Syria has so far claimed the lives of more than 3,500 Syrians," U.N. Human Rights Office spokeswoman Ravina Shamdasani told reporters in Geneva.

"Since Syria signed the peace plan sponsored by the League of Arab States last week, more than 60 people are reported to have been killed by military and security forces, including at least 19 on the Sunday that marked Eid al-Adha (the main Muslim feast)."

Syria agreed to the Arab League plan on November 2, pledging to pull its military from restive cities, set political prisoners free and start talks with the opposition, which wants to remove Assad and introduce more democratic freedoms.

Syria's representative to the Arab League, said Damascus had "gone a long away" toward implementing the plan, pointing to the release of around 500 detainees under a conditional amnesty announced last week.

But Arab and Western powers are getting increasingly frustrated with Syria's failure to stem the crackdown. Qatar's prime minister has called for Arab states to meet Saturday to discuss it, while France's foreign minister said Syria was witnessing "a new round of repression."

Residents in Homs, Syria's third largest city which has been at the forefront of seven months of protests against Assad's rule, said troops had entered a residential district Monday and were consolidating their control.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said troops raiding houses in the city and firing on residential districts killed four civilians Tuesday, among them a women and a girl.

"I sneaked in to see my father today, who was hit by shrapnel. The number of troops and shabbiha (militia) in Bab Amro (district) is now in the thousands and the looting is rampant," a resident who gave his name as Sami said by phone.

He said he saw militiamen and soldiers in one neighborhood carrying refrigerators, televisions and computer screens and putting them in jeeps and pick-up trucks. A school was turned into a detention center where scores of youths were laid out in the courtyard with their hands tied behind their backs, he said.

Events in Syria are difficult to verify independently because the government has barred most foreign journalists.

Six civilians, including two women and an eight-year-old, were killed Monday in the city and its rural environs, activists said. They also said that 150 soldiers had defected in the last 24 hours.

The Observatory, headed by exiled dissident Rami Abdelrahman, said fighting broke out in the city of Hama, 45 km (28 miles) north of Homs, between loyalist forces and army defectors.

It said 8 soldiers and security police were killed in an ambush in the northwestern province of Idlib, and four civilians were killed during raids by loyalist forces and from firing by troops manning roadblocks.

SPIKE IN KILLINGS

The U.N. death toll marks an increase of some 500 since October 14 when the United Nations put the death toll at more than 3,000. Shamdasani said the U.N. estimate was relatively conservative and below others.

Syrian activists put the number of civilians killed in the conflict as high as 4,200.

In August, U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay called on the U.N. Security Council to refer the situation in Syria to the International Criminal Court.

"We stand by that call," Shamdasani said.

Involvement of the ICC could lead to indictments of senior officials in the government, as happened in Libya when a popular revolt overthrew the regime of Muammar Gaddafi.

However, the U.N. Security Council failed to pass a resolution to condemn the Syrian government after China and Russia vetoed a push by the United States, Britain and France.

Syria has not stuck to its promises, Shamdasani said.

"While the Syrian government announced the release of 553 detainees Saturday on the occasion of Eid, tens of thousands remain in detention and dozens continue to be arbitrarily arrested everyday," she said.

She said the government was using tanks and heavy weaponry to mount attacks on residential areas in Homs, and the situation in the neighborhood of Bab Amro was "particularly appalling."

"According to information the U.N. human rights office has received, the neighborhood has remained under siege for seven days, with residents deprived of food, water and medical supplies."

Syria's government has not allowed U.N. investigators into the country, so the figures are based on information from "credible sources on the ground" that could be corroborated, Shamdasani said.

"Despite repeated requests, the Syrian government has not been forthcoming in its cooperation," she said.

At least 100 people were killed in Homs last week, mostly from tank fire into the Bab Amro district, the Syrian human rights organization Sawasiah said.

Omar Idlibi, a member of the Local Coordination Committee activist's organization, told Reuters from Beirut: "They were fighting tanks with mostly rifles. The Syrian army siege has basically turned Homs into a disaster zone."

Speaking after a meeting with Yemeni Nobel peace laureate Tawakul Karman in Paris, French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said the behavior of the Syrian authorities was "absolutely unacceptable" and that it "could no longer be trusted."

"Its acceptance of Arab League plan was followed in the immediate hours by a new round of repression and new massacres."

Juppe said Syria was witnessing "a new round of repression" after the Arab initiative and France was working to raise international pressure on Damascus and strengthening ties with the Syrian opposition.

Syrian authorities have not commented on the offensive on Homs but have repeatedly said that "terrorists" were operating in the city, killing civilians and police, and that local inhabitants wanted them "cleansed."

They say Islamist militants and foreign-backed armed gangs have killed 1,100 members of the security forces during seven months of unrest.

[Sofiyya 1,687]

The Syrian regime doesn't deserve another chance.

[scandal 951]

8yo girl killed in latest Syria violence

Updated November 11, 2011 12:18:33

A young girl and six soldiers were among 21 Syrians killed during a security crackdown on protesters and clashes between troops and army deserters, a human rights group said.

The deadly clashes came as protest organisers called for nationwide demonstrations to demand the Arab League suspend Syria's membership in the pan-Arab group.

The Arab League, under international pressure to act after Syria failed to honour its peace plan and stepped up the brutal protest crackdown, is to hold talks today ahead of an extraordinary weekend meeting on the crisis.

On the ground, an eight-year-old girl was among 11 civilians killed by security forces yesterday in the besieged central city of Homs, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

The bodies of another five missing people were also found in the Homs region, the group said in a statement.

"Security forces arrested three wounded people in a private hospital" in Homs, and several others were detained in Jassem, in southern Daraa province, it added.

In the north-western province of Idlib, near the Turkish border, four civilians were killed during raids by the security forces.

"At least four soldiers in the regular army were killed at dawn in an attack, headed by armed men - probably deserters - on a military checkpoint in Has region, near Maaret al-Numan town" in Idlib, the Observatory said.

Early yesterday, in Jabal al-Zawiya, people began a general strike, responding to protesters there, while security forces tried to force them to open closed shops.

In eastern Syria, two soldiers - one an officer - were killed and five soldiers wounded in another attack on a military checkpoint, east of Deir Ezzor.

And in Harasta, near Damascus, clashes took place between the military and presumed deserters.

Another protest group, the General Commission of the Syrian Revolution, called for yesterday to be a "day of general strike in Syria to support Homs", where security forces have killed dozens of civilians in a few days.

The strike call was observed in several cities, video footage posted on YouTube showed.

In the Damascus area of Barze, a huge deployment of security forces moved in and arrested several people.

The previous night six people were killed during an operation to crush protests.

"Hidden gunmen have been posted on high buildings in Barze where a major protest is underway," the Observatory said.

On Wednesday, efforts to crush anti-regime protests resulted in 16 new civilian deaths.

According to the United Nations, more than 3,500 people have now been killed in Syria since protests against president Bashar al-Assad began in March.

[Pooky 3,348]

Nothing's going to happen to the Syrian government. They are protected from international sanction by Russia and China, who don't seem to care that much about Bashar Al-Assad is ordering the killing of his own people.

[mawilson 2,133]

Is Turkey sending a flotilla?

[^_^ 5,021]

Last chance before who does what? Please... no one is going to do anything to Assad.

Except maybe the Israelis and they don't care about dead Syrians.

They have bigger worries.

[mawilson 2,133]

Last chance before who does what?

Before Obama kills more Muslims.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

My take is that Assad is a dead man walking. He'll end up like Ghaddafi. Might take awhile but it'll happen.

[MyLittlePony 340]

Obama kills his own kind too?

[scandal 951]

Is Turkey sending a flotilla?

Why just Turkey? There are many who should set sail. Syria has a Mediterranean coastline, and its population is held captive and being mowed down in the streets. Where is the outrage?

[scandal 951]

Only Syria, Lebanon and Yemen voted against the Arab League suspension of Syria, with Iraq abstaining.

Yemen. Iraq. Those are US "allies". The Iraqi government, which owes it very existence to the removal of a brutal dictatorial regime only a few years ago, abstained from the vote to isolate the Syrian bloodthirsty regime. Hypocrisy much?

Arab League votes to suspend Syria over killings

By AYA BATRAWY, Associated Press – 9 hours ago

CAIRO (AP) — In a surprisingly sharp move, the Arab League voted Saturday to suspend Syria over the country's bloody crackdown on an eight-month uprising and stepped up calls on the army to stop killing civilians.

The decision was a humiliating blow to a regime that prides itself as a bastion of Arab nationalism, but it was unlikely to immediately end a wave of violence that the U.N. estimates has killed more than 3,500 people since mid-March.

"Syria is a dear country for all of us and it pains us to make this decision," Qatar's Foreign Minister Hamad bin Jassim told reporters. "We hope there will be a brave move from Syria to stop the violence and begin a real dialogue toward real reform."

In Damascus, pro-regime demonstrators threw eggs and tomatoes at the Qatari embassy to protest the vote.

The 22-member Arab League will monitor the situation and revisit the decision in a meeting Wednesday in the Moroccan capital Rabat, bin Jassim said, a move that appeared to give Syrian President Bashar Assad time to avert the suspension.

But Syria has been unwilling to heed previous calls to end the violence. Saturday's vote came after Damascus failed to carry out a Nov. 2 peace deal brokered by the Arab League that called on Syria to halt the attacks and pull tanks out of cities.

More than 250 Syrian civilians have been killed so far this month, including 12 on Saturday in attacks in the restive city of Homs, the Damascus suburbs and elsewhere, according to activist groups.

President Barack Obama praised the Arab League, highlighting what he called the group's leadership in seeking to end attacks on peaceful protesters. "These significant steps expose the increasing diplomatic isolation of a regime that has systematically violated human rights and repressed peaceful protests," he said in a statement.

Arab League diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief reporters, said that if Syria does not adhere to its demands, the organization will work to unify the disparate Syrian opposition into a coalition similar to that of Libya's National Transitional Council. Next steps would be to recognize the opposition as the sole representative of the Syrian people in a move that would symbolically isolate Assad's regime even further.

In his statement, bin Jassim called on all factions to meet later this week to unify their message as a step toward dialogue with the Syrian government, but many within the opposition refuse to negotiate with the regime.

Still, there is little to stop Assad now from calling upon the scorched-earth tactics that have kept his family in power for more than four decades. A longtime pariah, Syria grew accustomed to shrugging off the world's reproach long before the regime started shooting unarmed protesters eight months ago.

An international military intervention has been all but ruled out, given the quagmire in Libya and the lack of any strong opposition leader in Syria to rally behind. International sanctions, some of which target Assad personally, have failed to persuade him to ease his crackdown.

Syria also retains the iron support of Muslim Shiite-led Iran, which wants to keep Damascus in its fold in a mostly Muslim Sunni region dominated by Arab suspicions of Tehran's aims. Should Assad's regime fall, it could rob Iran of a loyal Arab partner.

The vote was a strong message from Syria's Arab neighbors and showed growing impatience with Damascus.

Neil Sammonds, a Syria researcher for Amnesty International, said the unified Arab showing will put more pressure on the U.N. Security Council to impose sanctions despite objections by Syrian allies Russia and China. Only Syria, Lebanon and Yemen voted against the Arab League suspension of Syria, with Iraq abstaining.

"This will help put the diplomatic pressure on the Security Council to act, to show Russia and China that they are out of step with the region and the rest of world," Sammonds said.

Saer el-Nashif, who was among the Syrian opposition leaders meeting with Arab League diplomats in Cairo several times in recent weeks, praised Saturday's vote and said he hopes it leads to a Security Council decision.

Arab nations also are eager to avoid seeing another leader toppled violently, as happened to Libya's Moammar Gadhafi last month. An Arab League decision had paved the way for the U.N.-mandated no-fly zone and NATO airstrikes that eventually brought down Gadhafi, but bin Jassim stressed international intervention was not on the agenda in Syria.

"None of us is talking about this kind of decision," he said.

Syria, which blames the bloodshed on extremists acting out a foreign agenda to destabilize the regime, slammed Saturday's vote as "illegal" under Arab League charter rules.

Its Arab League envoy Youssef Ahmed said Damascus was calling on the "armed opposition abroad to lay down arms, surrender, stop the violence and accept a national dialogue."

Diplomats who attended the meeting said the Syrian ambassador accused the Qatari foreign minister of carrying out a U.S. agenda, and the Qatari official replied that the league was doing this for the good of the Syrian people.

The bloodshed has spiked dramatically in recent weeks amid signs that more protesters are taking up arms to protect themselves, changing the face of what has been a largely peaceful movement. Many fear the change plays directly into the hands of the regime by giving the military a pretext to crack down with increasing force.

Despite growing international isolation, Assad appears to have a firm grip on power.

Assad, and his father who ruled Syria before him, stacked key security and military posts with members of their minority Alawite sect, ensuring loyalty by melding the fate of the army and the regime. As a result, the army leadership will likely protect the regime at all costs, for fear it will be persecuted if the country's Sunni majority gains the upper hand. Most of the army defectors so far appear to be lower-level Sunni conscripts.

The government has largely sealed off the country from foreign journalists and prevented independent reporting, making it difficult to confirm events on the ground. Key sources of information are amateur videos posted online and details gathered by witnesses and activist groups who then contact the media, often at great personal risk.

[mawilson 2,133]

The Iraqi government, which owes it very existence to the removal of a brutal dictatorial regime only a few years ago, abstained from the vote to isolate the Syrian bloodthirsty regime. Hypocrisy much?

Sometimes I wish we had a President Trump who would "take Iraqi oil" and make us energy independent for the next 100 years.

You know, the way real Empires used to do it.