Was MO a "bellwether" state?

[Saddle Bronc 124]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7740842.stm

Missouri loses bellwether status

By Max Deveson

BBC News, Washington

The vote tally from the last state finally came in on Wednesday, more than two weeks after election day - John McCain has won in the state of Missouri.

Nothing surprising about this. The state voted for Mr McCain's Republican colleague George W Bush in 2000 and 2004.

But on the other hand, a pattern has been broken. Until this year, Missouri had voted for the winning candidate every year since 1956 - and, if you disregard 1956, from as far back as 1904.

So the Show-Me state is no longer America's bellwether - the state that reflects the views of the nation as a whole.

Was 2008 a blip, or a sign that Missouri is no longer representative of the US?

More Republican

The figures show an exceptionally close race, one reason it has taken so long to produce a result.

John McCain beat Barack Obama by a small but significant 3,632 votes, according to the final, (as-yet uncertified) vote count.

The gap between the third and fourth-placed candidates was considerably wider. So Missouri could easily have voted for the winner in 2008 too.

But it didn't and in fact the writing has been on the wall for Missouri for several years now.

In the past few elections, the state has become increasingly Republican.

In 1996, Missouri voted for Bill Clinton by a margin of 6.3 percentage points, just 2.32 percentage points below Mr Clinton's national margin of victory.

In 2000, that gap grew to 3.86 points, by 2004 it had reached 4.84 points, and in 2008 Missouri was 6.89 points more Republican than the nation as a whole.

What has changed?

Demographically, Missouri used to be a microcosm of America.

With its identical combination of urban centres and rural areas, and a similar racial mix to America as a whole, it was little surprise that Missouri voted along the same lines as the nation.

But America's racial mix is changing - and Missouri is not keeping up with the changes.

African-Americans make up 11.3% of Missouri's population, similar to the 12.3% of African-Americans nationwide.

But the fastest-growing ethnic group in America is Hispanic - and Missouri's Hispanic population is just 3%, compared to the 12.5% national average.

Hispanic voters backed Barack Obama nationally by a ratio of two to one - so Missouri's relative lack of Hispanics may well have made a difference.

Missouri also has a greater share of evangelical Christian voters than America as a whole, a group that tends to vote Republican.

'Fruitless search'

Now that Missouri's decades-long winning streak has run out, which state can lay claim to the title of America's bellwether?

Ohio now boasts the longest unbroken run - it has correctly voted for the winner in every presidential election since 1960.

Nevada also has a strong claim - it has only voted for the losing candidate once since 1912 (in 1976).

But Josh Goodman, of Governing.com makes the case for Iowa. The Hawkeye state has not been good at picking winners - it voted for the losing candidate in 1960, 1976, 1988 and 2000, but in percentage terms, it's never been far wrong.

The percentage gap between the two main candidates has been within about 2.5% of the gap between the candidates at national level in the last five elections.

Larry Sabato, Professor of Political Science at the University of Virginia, says that ultimately, trying to identify bellwethers may not be a worthwhile enterprise.

"The search for a bellwether is both eternal and fruitless." he told BBC News.

"No state comes close to an exact replica of the complex and ever-changing demographics of the United States. [America] may have Holiday Inns and McDonalds restaurants everywhere, but it really isn't homogenised."

Political junkies and amateur psephologists will probably always be obsessed with identifying the states - and even the counties - that reflect the views of the nation as a whole.

From now on, however, they will stop focusing quite so much on Missouri.

IMO, the following states would appear to have more reasonable claim (simply due to population size):

1. CA
2. TX
3. NY
4. FL
5. IL

I was a little surprised that FL ranked ahead of IL on the list

Edited November 21, 2008 by CherryXS

[chri'stina 190]

Bellwether, I don't think I have ever heard that word.

[w¡n9Nµ7 §£@¥€r 123]

Srini, a bellwether state is one that has a good record of predicting the national outcome. CA, NY and TX don't even come close. Not IL either although FL comes close.

[Ban Hammer 14,573]

Bellwether, I don't think I have ever heard that word.

NOUN:

One that serves as a leader or as a leading indicator of future trends: "The degree to which the paper is censored is a political bellwether" (Justine De Lacy).

ETYMOLOGY:

Middle English bellewether, wether with a bell hung from its neck, leader of the flock : belle, bell ; see bell 1 + wether, wether ; see wether

it's not a common term anymore.

[*JG* 2]

Oh, how rude.....I will not be categorized with those country folk who voted for McCain. Word has it the city folk voted for Obama in force. Something like 80 or 85%. I live in the city.

[alienlovechild 75]

IMO, the following states would appear to have more reasonable claim (simply due to population size):

CA

TX

NY

FL

IL

The concept of a bellwether state has nothing to do with the size of the state but whether the state is a close microcosm of the American electorate.

So the Show-Me state is no longer America's bellwether - the state that reflects the views of the nation as a whole.

CA, TX, and NY aren't bellwether states and IL isn't close either. You could argue Florida but Ohio is a good choice, too.

[bhajishah 4]

Well its definately a redneck state. like on deliverence, have you been there>> then the big cities are all ghettofied. Depends on who gets up goes votes instead of gang rollin, and or hunting or fishing. Columbia not big enough to tip the scales. no wonder it came up tied!! Im sure the good ol boys and girls will come out in full force next election. will see

[almaty 19]

Well its definately a redneck state. like on deliverence, have you been there>> then the big cities are all ghettofied. Depends on who gets up goes votes instead of gang rollin, and or hunting or fishing. Columbia not big enough to tip the scales. no wonder it came up tied!! Im sure the good ol boys and girls will come out in full force next election. will see

sister cindi...you are 100% correct..it is the Mississippi of the North

[Ban Hammer 14,573]

Well its definately a redneck state. like on deliverence, have you been there>> then the big cities are all ghettofied. Depends on who gets up goes votes instead of gang rollin, and or hunting or fishing. Columbia not big enough to tip the scales. no wonder it came up tied!! Im sure the good ol boys and girls will come out in full force next election. will see

sister cindi...you are 100% correct..it is the Mississippi of the North

how can it be a redneck state and ghettofied at the same time?

[bhajishah 4]

ill name 4 places in Missouri and you can google.. Branson, Sedalia, Kansas City, St Luois...says it all ..its a balance of the twixt redneckedghettofied. then there is the redneckghetto which is really scary ie North KC biker/diker heaven

[Ban Hammer 14,573]

ill name 4 places in Missouri and you can google.. Branson, Sedalia, Kansas City, St Luois...says it all ..its a balance of the twixt redneckedghettofied. then there is the redneckghetto which is really scary ie North KC biker/diker heaven

north kc? you've not been there lately have you?

[bhajishah 4]

Noo not since the 80s, chautea parkway and a few biker bars in my prev life.t lb4 spread out all over with the Harley wanna be reepers boomers with money trendies