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Will GOP try to steal another election?

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This certainly did need more investigation as to what happened. One good part here:

As the last polling stations closed on the West Coast, exit polls showed Kerry ahead in ten of eleven battleground states -- including commanding leads in Ohio and Florida -- and winning by a million and a half votes nationally. The exit polls even showed Kerry breathing down Bush's neck in supposed GOP strongholds Virginia and North Carolina.(30) Against these numbers, the statistical likelihood of Bush winning was less than one in 450,000.(31) ''Either the exit polls, by and large, are completely wrong,'' a Fox News analyst declared, ''or George Bush loses.''(32)

But as the evening progressed, official tallies began to show implausible disparities -- as much as 9.5 percent -- with the exit polls. In ten of the eleven battleground states, the tallied margins departed from what the polls had predicted. In every case, the shift favored Bush. Based on exit polls, CNN had predicted Kerry defeating Bush in Ohio by a margin of 4.2 percentage points. Instead, election results showed Bush winning the state by 2.5 percent. Bush also tallied 6.5 percent more than the polls had predicted in Pennsylvania, and 4.9 percent more in Florida.(33)

According to Steven F. Freeman, a visiting scholar at the University of Pennsylvania who specializes in research methodology, the odds against all three of those shifts occurring in concert are one in 660,000. ''As much as we can say in sound science that something is impossible,'' he says, ''it is impossible that the discrepancies between predicted and actual vote count in the three critical battleground states of the 2004 election could have been due to chance or random error.''

The most disappointing part was the unwillingness of the Democrats or anyone else to investigate much into the cause of such alarming discrepancies. Voting, being amongst the most fundamental rights given to Americans, is certainly something that needs to be heavily scrutinized and ensured that every vote is counted. This current voting system, especially with easily modified electronic voting machines which leave no paper trail per every vote for a secondary source of recount, allows for electoral fraud.

And that's overlooking the absolutely retarded partisan GOP effort of discounting black votes in both Ohio and Florida. Wonder what tactics are next.

Edited by SRVT

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another option - people lie about who they voted for in an exit poll.

This probability is much higher for opinion polls done before an election, not only that, but polls before an election are highly unreliable (they usually do biased random samples of an area rather than a true random sample -- not everyone who takes their call wants to provide an answer so it's not truly random) in that people also shift their votes. Exit polling is much more statistically reliable because it's specific to that precinct and based upon a previous occurrence. If you've ever taken math or even statistics you know the formula for this means the confidence interval shrinks, and hence the margin of error does too, within that data set.

Those of us who do know about stats, functions, and probability, know how reliable exit polls are, and historically there's no reason for people to lie to exit pollers in mass, hence why the margin of error has correctly been very low.

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I think Ralph Nader is going to steal the election, then we will all be driving electric cars governed at 45 mph!


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another option - people lie about who they voted for in an exit poll.

This probability is much higher for opinion polls done before an election, not only that, but polls before an election are highly unreliable (they usually do biased random samples of an area rather than a true random sample -- not everyone who takes their call wants to provide an answer so it's not truly random) in that people also shift their votes. Exit polling is much more statistically reliable because it's specific to that precinct and based upon a previous occurrence. If you've ever taken math or even statistics you know the formula for this means the confidence interval shrinks, and hence the margin of error does too, within that data set.

Those of us who do know about stats, functions, and probability, know how reliable exit polls are, and historically there's no reason for people to lie to exit pollers in mass, hence why the margin of error has correctly been very low.

.......... completely underestimate the need for the American electorate to mess with the pollsters' heads and make them look like the prats they really are.

P who's been there and done that before :thumbs:


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another option - people lie about who they voted for in an exit poll.

This probability is much higher for opinion polls done before an election, not only that, but polls before an election are highly unreliable (they usually do biased random samples of an area rather than a true random sample -- not everyone who takes their call wants to provide an answer so it's not truly random) in that people also shift their votes. Exit polling is much more statistically reliable because it's specific to that precinct and based upon a previous occurrence. If you've ever taken math or even statistics you know the formula for this means the confidence interval shrinks, and hence the margin of error does too, within that data set.

Those of us who do know about stats, functions, and probability, know how reliable exit polls are, and historically there's no reason for people to lie to exit pollers in mass, hence why the margin of error has correctly been very low.

.......... completely underestimate the need for the American electorate to mess with the pollsters' heads and make them look like the prats they really are.

P who's been there and done that before :thumbs:

Well, I do see a use for exit polls which, in this case, help the American people by finding what can be large irregularities in votes versus results. Remembering that the software used (in Diebold and Sequoia machines respectively) to count votes can and has been shown to be manipulated, hence decertified in increasing amounts of areas. On top of that, the extremely shady method of not giving a receipt per vote to ensure for a potential manual count of ballots, instead relying upon the same count from the machine itself that can be modified.

At very least I think most Americans want to see an election with everyone having their vote counted. There's no use of even voting or having a vote or being a citizen if your vote can be erased in Excel-fashion.

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I'm still waiting for them to investigate the 62 election when Kennedy/Johnson won. Voters who had even died in Texas were casting their votes thanks to Lydon Johnson.

\

(and yes, I voted in that election)


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I'm still waiting for them to investigate the 62 election when Kennedy/Johnson won. Voters who had even died in Texas were casting their votes thanks to Lydon Johnson.

\

(and yes, I voted in that election)

Wasn't that in 1960?

And no, I wasn't even born then.

P


Don't interrupt me when I'm talking to myself

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I'm still waiting for them to investigate the 62 election when Kennedy/Johnson won. Voters who had even died in Texas were casting their votes thanks to Lydon Johnson.

\

(and yes, I voted in that election)

dang pj you are old :D


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I'm still waiting for them to investigate the 62 election when Kennedy/Johnson won. Voters who had even died in Texas were casting their votes thanks to Lydon Johnson.

\

(and yes, I voted in that election)

Sure, go ahead. And while you're at it, recount Florida. Nixon's dead, but we could still have Al Gore. :thumbs:

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I'm still waiting for them to investigate the 62 election when Kennedy/Johnson won. Voters who had even died in Texas were casting their votes thanks to Lydon Johnson.

\

(and yes, I voted in that election)

Sure, go ahead. And while you're at it, recount Florida. Nixon's dead, but we could still have Al Gore. :thumbs:

They did recount Florida...and recount and recount and recount and recount and recount and recount and recount and recount and recount ... all because Gore wasn't getting the result he wanted.


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