wintermute10

EXP 06 AUG 2019A
 
You were missing a zero before the 6

I think that USCIS is basing the time estimates off of a rolling average of the previous 6 months. Based on the data on this site back in the beginning of March, NOA1 to NOA2 was taking around 4.5 month.  Going further back to November, it was over 6 months.  Over the last month, it looks like they got that down to 3 months.  That is not counting the ones that got an RFE, which obviously could add a lot of time if the petitioner delays responding.
 
Another way of getting a good feel is just to look at the timelines for February on this site.  About 20% of the people on this site never update their profile, so it looks like most Feb applicants already either got approved or got a RFE.
 
That being said, Maryna and I filed on March 8th and I am checking the sites multiple times a day.  The waiting is the worst part, as everyone here knows.
 

I think that USCIS is basing the time estimates off of a rolling average of the previous 6 months. Based on the data on this site back in the beginning of March, NOA1 to NOA2 was taking around 4.5 month.  Going further back to November, it was over 6 months.  Over the last month, it looks like they got that down to 3 months.  That is not counting the ones that got an RFE, which obviously could add a lot of time if the petitioner delays responding.
 
Another way of getting a good feel is just to look at the timelines for February on this site.  About 20% of the people on this site never update their profile, so it looks like most Feb applicants already either got approved or got a RFE.
 
That being said, Maryna and I filed on March 8th and I am checking the sites multiple times a day.  The waiting is the worst part, as everyone here knows.
 

If you look at the timelines for NOA2 approvals, you will see that the back lot has dropped a lot in the last few months.  Currently they are approving applications with a NOA1 date at the end of November.  
 
That is 4 months out from now.  Add one month to get to the embassy and then a couple well delay before the interview.  There Kiev embassy is much faster than most.  So you are looking at 6 months at the outside range.  You could delay scheduling the interview a bit, when you get to they point.  Personally I wouldn't since the visa is good for 4 months and that gives you plenty of time.  And if for some reason it's not, I believe it's fairly easy to apply for a time extension.
 

If you look at the timelines for NOA2 approvals, you will see that the back lot has dropped a lot in the last few months.  Currently they are approving applications with a NOA1 date at the end of November.  
 
That is 4 months out from now.  Add one month to get to the embassy and then a couple well delay before the interview.  There Kiev embassy is much faster than most.  So you are looking at 6 months at the outside range.  You could delay scheduling the interview a bit, when you get to they point.  Personally I wouldn't since the visa is good for 4 months and that gives you plenty of time.  And if for some reason it's not, I believe it's fairly easy to apply for a time extension.
 

If you look at the timeline search with details turned on, you can see that the NOA1 to NOA2 has dropped from 180 days in the beginning of January.  Approvals are coming in from 113 days ago and that number is stopping fast as uscis goes through their backlog.   The visajourney time estimate is based on older data.  I would not be surprised if March applicants start seeing NOA2 approvals in June.  Just a few years ago it was taking less than 2 months for that step.