SvetikP

So', I'm bored and decided to look at some data and make some guesses...
 
According to VisaJourney data, there are 310 K-1s in the VJ database for November 2017. 91 of those have received NOA2.  
That gives us a 29.3% NOA2 rate (approvals) thus far.
 
If we extrapolate that all to all November cases that weren't rejected in the beginning, 3374, that would mean 978 approvals have potentially happened if we can assume non VJ members are being approved at the same rate as VJ members who have updated their timelines. And we know that some VJ members haven't updated their timelines since the first entry, so this is possibly a little low. Our current known RFE rate is about 80% of the known approved cases, so the same ratios would mean there are possibly 783 cases in RFE status.
 
This would be 1761 cases approved or in RFE using these extrapolated estimates.  In our scans, we're only showing 881.... so that would mean possible a 50% silent rate now; which is not too surprising if the historical rate was 30% and they are now starting to use the new system more and more and probably use the old system less and less. We have seen a lot of people posting the old website wasn't updated for them, so I think this is somewhat believable.
 
If it's true, that 1761 cases have been touched... We'd be just 50% of the way finished now and I'd expect them to do a lot of cases next week and then start December June 4th following week while they finish up November. I would say if we do happen to see a tiny trickle of December cases next week, then these estimates are pretty accurate. Let's see what happens. I'm starting to revise my December start date a bit closer...
@Little_Vixen I would watch for December next week, but especially the week after! 
 @Naes
 
I would say those of us November filers still waiting have a very high chance of getting our approvals or an RFE in the next 2 weeks. 
 

Hey everyone! I've been stalking this thread since the beginning but never posted anything. I just wanted to give hope to middle November fillers. 
 
We got approved! 
Noa1 old website- November 14th
Noa1 new website -  November 16th
Noa 2 - May 25th
 
New website is updated but the app still says received. Got an email as well. 
 
I honestly think they go through more cases s day than we think. Otherwise I have no idea why we got approved. Hoping for all November fillers approval soon! It's coming! 

Hi all! 
 
My fiancé & I have been silent on this post, but have been watching closely. We just wanted to tell you all that we have been approved this morning! Decided to just check not expecting anything on the new site & there it was! We would like to thank everyone for all there scans & input thus far. You’ve all been so helpful. Please hang in there guys, yours is coming too! Today was our 200 day mark. 
 
NOA 1 (old): 11/7 
NOA 1 (new): 11/9
NOA 2 (new): 05/25 
old site hasn’t updated yet. 

November Full Scan 5/25 7:00pm CST
 
No approvals today, just RFEs and a decent number of them backdated to yesterday.
I hope everyone enjoys the long weekend, and I'll run the scan again Tuesday night! I'm hoping after the holiday's USCIS will came back to work ready to get some cases approved! 
 
Your Current Status: Name Was Updated 1 Your Current Status: Notice Explaining USCIS' Actions Was Mailed 1 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 20 Your Current Status: Response To USCIS' Request For Evidence Was Received 10 Grand Total 32  
Receive Date Status Date 11/02/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/25/18 11/02/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/25/18 11/02/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/25/18 11/02/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/25/18 11/02/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/25/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/25/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/25/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/07/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/25/18 11/08/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/27/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/27/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/28/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/25/18 11/02/17 Your Current Status: Response To USCIS' Request For Evidence Was Received 05/24/18 11/03/17 Your Current Status: Response To USCIS' Request For Evidence Was Received 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Response To USCIS' Request For Evidence Was Received 05/24/18 11/17/17 Your Current Status: Response To USCIS' Request For Evidence Was Received 05/24/18 11/17/17 Your Current Status: Response To USCIS' Request For Evidence Was Received 05/24/18 11/22/17 Your Current Status: Response To USCIS' Request For Evidence Was Received 05/24/18 11/24/17 Your Current Status: Response To USCIS' Request For Evidence Was Received 05/24/18 11/24/17 Your Current Status: Response To USCIS' Request For Evidence Was Received 05/24/18 11/24/17 Your Current Status: Response To USCIS' Request For Evidence Was Received 05/24/18 11/27/17 Your Current Status: Response To USCIS' Request For Evidence Was Received 05/24/18  
 

 
 

you will never know the feeling of getting left behind until you experienced it.so lucky for those who got theirs at 170-185 days but we cant smile anymore when we are almost 200 days and we see that uscis is still focusing on later dates and not even touching nov 8-9

November Full Scan 5/24/ 7:30pm CST
 
WOW!!! Our Best Day Yet, Again! 
 
Day by day more and more people are getting answers! Hang in there, your answer is coming soon! 
There are only 5 days that have less than 10% touched, 11/8, 11/14, 11/15, 11/29, and 11/30.
 
 
99 Approvals and 120 Updates today!
 
Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 99 Your Current Status: Name Was Updated 1 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 18 Your Current Status: Response To USCIS' Request For Evidence Was Received 1 Your Current Status: Withdrawal Acknowledgement Notice Was Sent 1 Grand Total 120  
Virgins Remaining: 2392, possibly as low as 2025 with an estimate on 'silent' updates.
 
Approvals:
Receive Date Status Date 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/07/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/07/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/07/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/07/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/07/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/07/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/07/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/07/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/07/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/10/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/13/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/13/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/13/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/13/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/13/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/13/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/13/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/13/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/13/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/13/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/13/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/13/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/14/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/14/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/14/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/14/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/14/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/20/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/20/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/20/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/20/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/20/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/20/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/20/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/20/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/20/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/20/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/22/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/22/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/22/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/22/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/22/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/22/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/22/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/22/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/22/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/22/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/22/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/22/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/24/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/24/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/24/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/24/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/24/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/24/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18 11/24/17 Your Current Status: Case Was Approved 05/24/18  
RFEs
11/02/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/02/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/06/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/07/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/07/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/07/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/07/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/07/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/07/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/13/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/13/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/13/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/13/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/14/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/24/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/24/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/24/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/24/17 Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed 05/24/18 11/20/17 Your Current Status: Response To USCIS' Request For Evidence Was Received 05/24/18  

 

 
 

Wow! My eyes literally bulged–checked the app and old site and we were approved today. No email or text notification.
 

 
Old Site and New Site date was November 20th.
 
I think I feel myself getting a little teary-eyed.

I just scanned 20th november cases because it is my date also. And I saw that USCIS today already approved 10 cases! 
Good start for the day!
 

I just scanned 20th november cases because it is my date also. And I saw that USCIS today already approved 10 cases! 
Good start for the day!
 

Wow we have exactly the same date on NOA1.. NO2 5/23 received email and update on new site only.. Cheers 👏... Guysss youll have yours soon..Keep the faith. Best of luck

Hi Everyone, I wanted to share some hope for those November filers still waiting. Today we also received approval! Thank you for all those that have been running scans and supporting each other, your time is coming! 

NOA 1 - NOV 10TH (OLD SITE)/ NOV 14TH (NEW SITE)
NOA 2- 5/24 (received text, no email, case tracker app also notified me)

Hello Guys, 
 
We got approved. 
 
Old Site NOA1: Nov 22
New Site NOA1: Nov 27
NOA2: May 24
 

Hello November Filers, it's not yet our time, but I wanted to say a few things.
 
I will be doing the November scans and keeping us all updated on our cases.  Thanks to @Naes for all the hard work for ALL of the months so far, and now that she's got her Approval, it's time to help free up some of her time and I volunteered to help out with November.  I will be keeping an eye on the cases and after it looks like they've actually gotten started on November, then I will start posting daily updates for everyone. I suspect we still have a few weeks to go before they get started, but I know our time is coming! 
 
Initially, it does look like there were a few random cases touched up to this point, which could be for a variety of reasons. 
We had 3580 cases to start out with, though after some initial rejections for bad applications and withdrawals, we're now left with 3352, 19 of those being approved.
 
There were a  very small number of cases approved / sent for RFE during the last few days of March, but it's been quiet since then. 
 
Here is the chart as it stands as of 4/6: 
(The y-axis will be fixed on future charts to start at 0 instead of 75)
 

 
Please bear with me as I get into the swing of this, and don't hesitate to ask questions or let me know if there's something that would work better for you! 

Congratulations!

Congratsssss!!!!!
i needed this good news today!!!!

Let me state this in a different manner. 
 
The less USCIS has to examine, the quicker they can approve the case right? 
 
The older one is the more likely you are to have actions that increase the thickness of your case. Does that make better sense? 

Hmm...there's a bit more to it than that, especially with more complicated cases.
 
The background checks are more than just a name + SSN and you get back an instant result most times. The checks at this stage go out to a few different agencies, most of which come back right away. Some, such as the FBI check, can take minutes, days, weeks, months, or longer to come back. For my federal security clearances, my coworkers and I have to go through the same checks every 6 months, and sometimes they get hit with delays as well (even if they were fine for their previous clearance). The FBI background check is a black box...USCIS requests it then they are on hold until they hear back. Yes, most cases comes back very quickly, but it's not unusual for them to take a bit longer.
 
Going back to your gun purchase background check, that's only 1 check against a subset of databases, and even that has a fairly high occurrence (7.9% in 2014) of cases taking over 3 days to complete. Of the ones that take over 3 days, the average response to get the result is about a month. Due to law, if they do not complete within 3 days then purchase is permitted to proceed (at the seller's discretion). I forget the exact numbers, but there are several hundreds of people annually who successfully purchase a firearm and go through the background check but are later found to have been prohibited from purchasing firearms. The purchases were permitted due to the background check threshold being exceed. I don't mean to take this thread off-topic...it's not about guns in any way at all. It's just that the example provided is only a subset of checks and even that has considerable delays in a decent percentage of cases.
 
As for the I-94, I think that's likely there to verify information they already have on file.
For a divorce, they must verify the authenticity of the documents and that the divorce is final and meets certain requirements (i.e. ensure due process was met...i.e. it wasn't performed via a so-called "divorce mill"). I'm not saying this is a big delay in many cases....presumably most divorces sent here would be US-issued divorces...but it does get more complicated when you start dealing with potentially forged documents, divorces where only one party participated, etc.
 
But yes, I get and agree that most cases likely take a matter of several minutes. There's just a lot of outliers that take longer, plus the massive backlog.

I have been trying to remind everyone (and myself) to focus on our loved ones and not on the process.  LD relationships are stressful enough without the added stress of the unknown.  We were 9 months and 7 days waiting for NOA2.  Many were getting it at 6 to 7 months.  That would have killed me if it weren't for Rose.  She kept me focused on what truly mattered.  
 
When I filed (June 6), my VJ estimate for NOA2 was September 6.  3 months to NOA2.  As the timeline pushed back and the NOA2 was nowhere in sight things got very tense.  Add the less than immigration friendly administration and there were times I was wondering if we would ever be to together in the US.  
 
We will all get through this but we need to focus on our loved ones and allow this journey to play out as it will.

Keep in mind that the "background check" only takes minutes and the adjudicator only spends 10 to 15 minutes on each petition, per an older thread with a Q&A with a former adjudicator.  A vast majority of the time is just spent sitting and waiting to be looked at.  If you have ever bought a gun in the States you know the background check is a simple input of a name and SSN into a federal database.  If you are clear, the check is done.  It takes under a minute.  If they find something it obviously takes more time and can even mean your petition will be transferred to the Vermont Service Center.
 
Delays for security check is just another excuse in their hands.  How can you argue with them?  Same with the I-94.  They know where you travel and when you travel.  Again, that is just another minute of their time to punch in the name and passport number.  What can they check with a divorce?  If the paperwork isn't complete they issue an RFE.  If it is complete, the divorce check is done.  They do not contact your Secretary of State or County Clerk.  The fact is a good adjudicator can look at the file and make a decision within minutes.  It doesn't matter how many addresses because they search via SSN and passport number.  1 address or 50 addresses doesn't impact the time it takes to run the background check.
 
All the adjudicator is doing is seeing if you have met at least once in the two years prior to filing, that the relationship appears to be bona fide and that both parties are legally free and clear to marry.  That is all they do at that stage.  They run a quick background check and look to see if the paperwork looks good without any red flags and they are done.

At times it seems as if there is no rhyme or reason for the wait times. I think some of it has to do with specific countries/embassies. Just my two cents.

I think we can agree that there is no rhyme or reason.  I'm old and it did take a long time.  Trinab80 is young and it took longer. Martin is young and it is taking longer.  It may have combinations of countries (high fraud countries take longer than low fraud countries) and maybe age.  We really will never understand.  

Im sure things like a criminal background and divorces may cause some additional checks. 
 
But what we are seeing.....if almost same exact petitions are filed on the same day.
One could be approved in 170 while the other 240 days.
No Rhyme or Reason Why.... Just that they are seperate petitions one has nothing to do with the other.
 
My case in point.... the only anomalies are i was divorced once.
100% there were petitions filed around my same age, and the same date of my petition that involved a divorse.  Though they were approved at 170 days.
While i am at 221 days. 
 
And there are still cases before me that have no divorces and are in there 20's.
 
Haha... we will never know there means or methods. 😁😁
 
 
 
 
 

Nope. 

My fiance and are are 42 and 41. No divorce. No police history. Super thin file (except our evidence of relationship). Still waiting on my NOA2.

Let me state this in a different manner. 
 
The less USCIS has to examine, the quicker they can approve the case right? 
 
The older one is the more likely you are to have actions that increase the thickness of your case. Does that make better sense? 

Let me state this in a different manner. 
 
The less USCIS has to examine, the quicker they can approve the case right? 
 
The older one is the more likely you are to have actions that increase the thickness of your case. Does that make better sense?