OriZ

Dude has a lot of experience with Russia. He trades 'em in for a newer model every few years. NO that doesn't count either.

It's not whether or not America should be run like a business. Study after study has shown that in times of market crashes and recessions, Americans are more inclined to vote for the candidate from the party that's NOT already in power(and vice versa). People are going to want someone who they think can get them their jobs back, or help them avoid losing theirs, it's as simple as that.

Well, in a hypothetical(yet very probable) scenario of the economy being in a recession and people being faced with the choice of either - a female senator(I'm not saying it matters to me that she's female but does seem to matter to some) with no real experience in real world economy except for the imaginary world her and obama and some of their bank buddies live in; and trump - a male businessman with plenty of experience(note - I have already said before I personally don't think he's such a great businessman, but that is beside the point) - who do you think most would think could pull them out of it faster/better? Mind you, I don't believe they actually influence what happens as much as most people believe they do, but that could sway enough people to vote for him as opposed to her.
It is equally important to note that if it does not happen this year, there is literally a 99.9% chance it will happen during the next president's term, which means if it is Clinton she will most definitely be a one term president. I think in that situation the person to vote for would not be who you like the most, but rather who you like the least.

I think Trump has shown that he can pull more people to him than we think - nobody gave him a chance at first for the GOP either yet he keeps gaining momentum. He's basically tied with Clinton right now, can you imagine what would happen if the economy tanks further? If it does, it's a sure win for him. I posted this chart before in the other thread(towards the bottom of the post):
http://www.visajourney.com/forums/topic/577938-one-year-to-nowhere/?p=7954381
So the reason I say 80:20 is only because I am still giving it a chance that they might manage to hold this baby up for another year. In that case Clinton has a better shot, but if not, then it won't really be "the economy stupid" but more like the market stupid. The economy is just often a consequence of that. If my target for this year for the S&P is met, Trump will crush her.

I'm not a trump fan but what makes you think he will? I actually think he's got a beyond decent shot at winning this.

Hey I'm with you there, but it's just the way it seems to go. Personally I don't believe he will be great for the economy - I think it will be a mere coincidence that (if this hypothetical scenario plays out) he gets elected right near the end of a complete market cycle and things turn around after a year or so of him in office. Right now I'm just imagining things but it's happened before, and if it happens again, it will have nothing to do with him, but people will think it did, just like they do with Obama.

That's kind of scary.
You do realize the first part of what I said actually meant I am against any bailouts, not just bank bailouts but auto bailouts as well?
Bailouts make companies lazy. If you can't survive you need to move over and make room for someone better. People need to be held accountable.

Having read Mein Kampf, I can tell you not alot of people today can be compared to Hitler.
Except for maybe a few Iranians.

I said it several times before and I'll repeat it again - comparing pretty much anyone(even putin), including trump - to hitler - shows a complete lack of understanding of history.

I said it several times before and I'll repeat it again - comparing pretty much anyone(even putin), including trump - to hitler - shows a complete lack of understanding of history.

Sorry P, we don't want it. Move it somewhere else.

Yeah, funny what happens when you have the government picking winners and losers.
The US has moved from a manufacturing based and production based economy to a service based economy and that is just not a good thing. There was a huge shift several decades ago to service based, and then to real estate. It is a big part of the problem and the crises in the last decade and a half as well as the one that is coming.

LOL

I believe when it comes to health of the residents as well as the crime rate VT and Hawaii are back to back. Right now Hawaii is first in both and VT second but at different points in the last few years it was the other way around. Most people here don't even usually lock their doors.
VT is already one of the most expensive states in the country so cost of living in Hawaii shouldn't be too high for us. I just need a few more years of skiing before I can make that move lol hey it's 16 degrees today and it doesn't feel too bad it's sunny and like no wind, I'll take it over 80.

Sounds similar to VT just without the cold and with an added bonus of the ocean.

I think there is an 80% chance of Trump being the next president. Sadly, I also think there is an 80% chance that most of those people won't keep their promises.
Hey Janelle, my wife and I's next "state of choice" to live in after VT(which we handpicked out of 49 possible states lol) is Hawaii...muahahaha lol
Seriously, it's going to be either Hawaii or CA. We'll be in VT a few more years though.

I'd have to agree with you there.
lol, fair enough.

I don't watch the oscars...nor do I watch most reality shows for that matter...bread and circuses, just like the Romans, that is all they are. It's insane how they are dumbing people down these days. Bread and Circuses...

I am not assuming. I can promise they were killed by fellow muslims

Hey! Marvin forgot to post this!
OH, Wait...

Which way? Probably both. Still very much range bound and well within my range...keep bouncing off of 1810, that was a trap again, definitely alot of support there...right now it looks like tomorrow we're testing 1880-1890 again, I think this time there is a chance to go higher, however not by much.
Hussman's latest commentary seems to agree with me about the 1820 area: http://www.hussmanfunds.com/weeklyMarketComment.html
Like I said before even if you're not a technical analyst(and he's not) it is obvious to any observer that there is something there. But that also means that a break could hurt very much. From my experience in the market what I think will happen first though is a fakeout; market will decline beneath it(not just one day intraday) at some point in the next 1-2 months(possibly 1780-1800). Then will reverse and get back up above it, maybe go as high as 1940-1980 again. However I don't think we will see levels higher than 2000 for years to come. If we make it to the high 1900's that's when the real decline will begin. It's kind of like crying wolf because that time no one will believe the market till it's too late. I've seen it happen many times...I think initially the ~1700 area will support, short(1 month) and shallow(maybe back up to 1800) bounce and then a 300-400 point decline very quickly.
Or, it could just break it and keep going lol. Which is why I don't believe in ever exiting a short position completely during a declining market even if you believe in a short term bounce. Speaking of which and the calls above - buying naked calls is never a good idea even if you are right about the direction of the market. Rises normally happen so slowly, and with declining volatility, which causes the Vega to decline and bring down the price of the option so the Delta plays catch up and you end up making nothing. Nothing worse than being right and making nothing. On the other hand buying naked puts in a declining market can actually work pretty well because the Vega will actually rise due to volatility and sort of compensate for the Theta.
And if you think that's all Greek well that's because it is!
BTW with this market closed for such a long weekend these last few days I was actually on delivery duty. It being Vday and all we needed more drivers and when I can do it myself I do it myself instead of paying someone else to do it for me. So I ended up driving for hours a day and getting out of my vehicle for minutes at a time several dozen times in -20 degree weather lol...still know what working hard is like, for sure, market is extremely hard work as well, but I'll take it over most jobs.