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OriZ

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  1. Like
    OriZ got a reaction from sl1pstream in We Need A White House Task Force On Reopening The Economy   
    Other infectious diseases are not pandemics which we have no immunity or vaccinations for. Honestly not sure how anyone can compare them.
  2. Like
    OriZ got a reaction from laylalex in We Need A White House Task Force On Reopening The Economy   
    Other infectious diseases are not pandemics which we have no immunity or vaccinations for. Honestly not sure how anyone can compare them.
  3. Like
    OriZ got a reaction from laylalex in No lockdown, please, we’re Swedish.   
    Because we didn't do any of the other things I mentioned nor are we doing them now, and because we wasted too much time not taking any action, including social distance, to the point where the only option left to start putting out the rapidly spreading fire was a lockdown.
  4. Like
    OriZ got a reaction from Nature Boy 2.0 in We Need A White House Task Force On Reopening The Economy   
    Other infectious diseases are not pandemics which we have no immunity or vaccinations for. Honestly not sure how anyone can compare them.
  5. Like
    OriZ got a reaction from Orangesapples in No lockdown, please, we’re Swedish.   
    Honestly, all I'm hearing is excuse after excuse with no valid reasons. Are you saying Israel, a country that has gone through 3 elections in the last year and still doesn't have a functional government, has more resources than the US? Lets be real here...their equivalent of the US' $2 trillion package was a ~$20 billion package. That's 1% of it. Are you saying an open source app that they developed in a week, can't be developed in the US over the course of 2 months? 
     
    You've got countries pulling over buses where they know irresponsible sick people are on and getting them off of it. Does the US not have the ability to do this?
     
    All I've been hearing so far is "lockdown is bad". Great, I agree there are other ways. Then when other ways are brought up, "the US can't do this". So, what can we do? anything? or do we just expect to continue business as usual and pretend it's just another flu?
  6. Like
    OriZ got a reaction from laylalex in We Need A White House Task Force On Reopening The Economy   
    As mentioned before...many things we can and should do here instead. To list only but a few:
     
     
    Mass testing of individuals including asymptopmatic ones
    Mass testing for antibodies - those who are already immune should be able to go back to work and out and about sooner than others
    Free, open source app anyone can install(but isn't required to) where they can see if they were in close proximity to a known carrier. If they were, they need to be quarantined.
    Sanitizers and wipes everywhere - like they have in many asian countries. every desk or store or office, hotel room, restaurant table, elevator etc.
    We can recommend wearing masks and ensure there's availability but not force it
    Enforce social distance in public places including grocery stores and restaurants
    Check the fever of anyone entering a public place, like they already do in Singapore and Hong Kong
    Any symptoms - need quick corona testing and quarantine
    Close down only certain areas which seem to be a hotspot at times so they don't spread it to the rest of the state/country
    House mild to moderate infected patients in quarantine in hotels and other empty facilities - if they agree. If they don't agree, we should be allowed to track them(in some countries they use their phone for it, granted they can just leave their phone in their house, but it does seem to be effective in many places) and get to them if they don't stay inside like they should. "but muh rights". Those are no different than terrorists. They have the option to stay somewhere else, if they choose to stay at home there is a cost. Too many are irresponsible and are murdering people by simply leaving their house knowing they are sick.
    High risk stay at home for a few months - it's about 20% of the population but only 5% of workforce, so won't have as big of an effect on the economy
     
    We can sit here and yap and make excuses all day long but if we don't implement at least some of this we are killing ourselves and our families, full stop.
  7. Like
    OriZ got a reaction from millefleur in Tracking site suggests White House model is overestimating coronavirus hospitalizations   
    I definitely believe in this.
  8. Like
    OriZ got a reaction from laylalex in 6 feet of social distancing not nearly enough: CDC’s recommendation driving some experts ‘nuts’   
    Yeah, they travel farther than 6 feet, but it's the larger ones they're more concerned with, and those don't go as far. With every virus, there's a threshold that will make you sick. It's not enough to get just a tiny bit of it. I'm not sure a tiny drop that travels 19 feet can do that.
  9. Thanks
    OriZ reacted to Ban Hammer in 6 feet of social distancing not nearly enough: CDC’s recommendation driving some experts ‘nuts’   
    fortunately, us introverted misanthropes have trained our entire lives for this moment.
  10. Like
    OriZ got a reaction from Nature Boy 2.0 in We Cannot Destroy The Country For The Sake Of New York City   
    I couldn't care less what the media says. I look at data. All the time. All day long. Saying if you just don't listen to the media you'll be fine is just like saying if you never go to the doctor you will always be healthy.
  11. Like
    OriZ got a reaction from Orangesapples in All things Corona Virus   
    Testing matters because it's the only way to detect and isolate asymptomatic carriers who infect others. The more you test, the more you know, and can impact the outcome. This is why despite the fact some countries didn't resort to a complete shutdown(Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea, for example),  they have it under control much better than others who did. They handled it right, so they simply didn't need such extreme measures.
  12. Like
    OriZ got a reaction from yuna628 in All things Corona Virus   
    I think the 100k estimates sound spot on.
  13. Like
    OriZ got a reaction from yuna628 in Georgia mayor blasts Kemp’s “reckless mandate” that allows beaches to reopen   
    When this silly little virus situation looks better.
  14. Like
    OriZ got a reaction from yuna628 in We Cannot Destroy The Country For The Sake Of New York City   
    I'm not saying the media is portraying this situation correctly, at all. They like to be sensationalist, for sure, and aren't known for being very accurate. When I see them talking about nothing but the number of new cases, 60k, 80k, oh look we have more than 1 million cases, and then they mention deaths(that's kinda like bringing up unemployment after the market drops 50%) to portray it as this horrific situation that's only getting worse. Surely, they're clueless. That said, it's not something we should take lightly either just because the media reports on it idiotically.
     
    So, I don't watch, or pay attention to what the media is saying on this. I do pull the data itself - new cases, number of tests, etc...and have a sheet that I update and analyze daily. Unlike the media, I don't care about total cases, but rates of increase, and ratio of cases to tests, and all the other things I've been mentioning in here for the last few weeks. Based on that, and contrary to the way the media paints it, the last week has definitely been looking gradually better, and I expect that to continue. However, my issue with the comment of saying if people don't pay attention to the media they'll be fine, is one has nothing to do with the other. While the media's panic might be unwarranted, this is a real virus, and some of those people aren't fine. Over 60,000 people are already dead, and I'm sure some of them didn't pay attention to the media.
     
    My comparison was to someone who never goes to the doctor. Since they never go to the doctor, they are never diagnosed with anything, so they are healthy. But not going to the doctor and not being told you have an illness doesn't mean you don't have it, just like not watching news on a virus doesn't mean the virus isn't there, even if the news tends to be a little hyperbolic about it.
  15. Like
    OriZ got a reaction from NikLR in We Cannot Destroy The Country For The Sake Of New York City   
    I'm not saying the media is portraying this situation correctly, at all. They like to be sensationalist, for sure, and aren't known for being very accurate. When I see them talking about nothing but the number of new cases, 60k, 80k, oh look we have more than 1 million cases, and then they mention deaths(that's kinda like bringing up unemployment after the market drops 50%) to portray it as this horrific situation that's only getting worse. Surely, they're clueless. That said, it's not something we should take lightly either just because the media reports on it idiotically.
     
    So, I don't watch, or pay attention to what the media is saying on this. I do pull the data itself - new cases, number of tests, etc...and have a sheet that I update and analyze daily. Unlike the media, I don't care about total cases, but rates of increase, and ratio of cases to tests, and all the other things I've been mentioning in here for the last few weeks. Based on that, and contrary to the way the media paints it, the last week has definitely been looking gradually better, and I expect that to continue. However, my issue with the comment of saying if people don't pay attention to the media they'll be fine, is one has nothing to do with the other. While the media's panic might be unwarranted, this is a real virus, and some of those people aren't fine. Over 60,000 people are already dead, and I'm sure some of them didn't pay attention to the media.
     
    My comparison was to someone who never goes to the doctor. Since they never go to the doctor, they are never diagnosed with anything, so they are healthy. But not going to the doctor and not being told you have an illness doesn't mean you don't have it, just like not watching news on a virus doesn't mean the virus isn't there, even if the news tends to be a little hyperbolic about it.
  16. Thanks
    OriZ reacted to Steeleballz in The Time has Come for some Answers about the Coronavirus Pandemic   
    Same thing we've been talking about since day 1. The death rate is not static. If people are not social distancing and too many people get the illness at the same time, the healthcare system is overwhelmed and many more of those serious/critical cases become deaths instead of recovered. That happened in both Italy and in NYC.
     
      People doing these analysis can't just completely detach from the fact that this is a pandemic disease to which we have no immunity. You can't analyze the statistics the same way you do last years flu season. This is much more fluid. We can mitigate it or we can allow it to get worse and the range of numbers changes drastically. 
  17. Like
    OriZ got a reaction from Steeleballz in We Cannot Destroy The Country For The Sake Of New York City   
    I'm not saying the media is portraying this situation correctly, at all. They like to be sensationalist, for sure, and aren't known for being very accurate. When I see them talking about nothing but the number of new cases, 60k, 80k, oh look we have more than 1 million cases, and then they mention deaths(that's kinda like bringing up unemployment after the market drops 50%) to portray it as this horrific situation that's only getting worse. Surely, they're clueless. That said, it's not something we should take lightly either just because the media reports on it idiotically.
     
    So, I don't watch, or pay attention to what the media is saying on this. I do pull the data itself - new cases, number of tests, etc...and have a sheet that I update and analyze daily. Unlike the media, I don't care about total cases, but rates of increase, and ratio of cases to tests, and all the other things I've been mentioning in here for the last few weeks. Based on that, and contrary to the way the media paints it, the last week has definitely been looking gradually better, and I expect that to continue. However, my issue with the comment of saying if people don't pay attention to the media they'll be fine, is one has nothing to do with the other. While the media's panic might be unwarranted, this is a real virus, and some of those people aren't fine. Over 60,000 people are already dead, and I'm sure some of them didn't pay attention to the media.
     
    My comparison was to someone who never goes to the doctor. Since they never go to the doctor, they are never diagnosed with anything, so they are healthy. But not going to the doctor and not being told you have an illness doesn't mean you don't have it, just like not watching news on a virus doesn't mean the virus isn't there, even if the news tends to be a little hyperbolic about it.
  18. Like
    OriZ got a reaction from Steeleballz in Donald Trump Coronavirus Task Force Briefing Transcript March 31: “Painful” Weeks Ahead   
    I don't agree with forcing people to wear masks. Some countries already do that, yet they don't provide the masks. So you're left with the choice of either making them on your own at home(assumnig you can't buy any), or staying home. If you don't wear a mask properly it actually increases, not decreases your risk, so that's not the right move imo. It is much more important to just keep your distance from other people.
  19. Like
    OriZ got a reaction from TBoneTX in Donald Trump Coronavirus Task Force Briefing Transcript March 31: “Painful” Weeks Ahead   
    I don't agree with forcing people to wear masks. Some countries already do that, yet they don't provide the masks. So you're left with the choice of either making them on your own at home(assumnig you can't buy any), or staying home. If you don't wear a mask properly it actually increases, not decreases your risk, so that's not the right move imo. It is much more important to just keep your distance from other people.
  20. Haha
    OriZ got a reaction from Burnt Reynolds in We Cannot Destroy The Country For The Sake Of New York City   
    Maybe. I also heard North Korea decided they're pacifists from now on.
  21. Like
    OriZ got a reaction from laylalex in Georgia mayor blasts Kemp’s “reckless mandate” that allows beaches to reopen   
    When this silly little virus situation looks better.
  22. Like
    OriZ reacted to laylalex in Georgia mayor blasts Kemp’s “reckless mandate” that allows beaches to reopen   
    Look, I am really, really irritated that the beaches are closed. I live a short walk from the beach, and before it was shut I went there as part of my daily exercise -- a wander through Palisades Park on the bluffs, then down the steep staircase to sea level and across PCH on the pedestrian bridge to the beach. It was a source of a lot of pleasure and peacefulness for me. But because I live so close by, I was going at times -- weekdays, daytime -- when there just weren't a lot of people there. The other weekend, right before they shut it, I went with my fiance and a friend who lives nearby, doing socially distanced walking. It wasn't crazy, quite a few people but no large gatherings. It was I guess relatively early in the day.
     
    But people suck and they are the reason why we can't have nice things. Later on in the day there were larger groups, not being careful, just treating it like it were a summer day. IT IS NOT EVEN WARM HERE YET and there were all these people just treating it like July. WHY? They ruined it by being so selfish. We had already been advised to exercise in our own neighborhoods or close to them. So while I live here and this is my neighborhood, people who wanted to have a "good time" have ruined it for us. We could have had it open -- even had the park open -- but no. Selfish. STAY HOME. This isn't a vacation. Come here for a walk, maybe. Don't set up a ####### beach blanket and umbrella and cooler with your family and friends and throw around some frisbees like nothing is happening. There's a freaking pandemic and it is MARCH. (Or was March then.)
     
    The cops are now parking on soccer fields because people wouldn't stop playing. The cops have blocked trailheads because tons of people were travelling to the areas to hike and there just isn't the room to do that apparently with social distancing. Some people don't know how to behave themselves and we all suffer. I don't think this is something that is a particularly LA area problem either. I just happen to be here and I see what is happening. But I do want to stress that these people are the outliers -- the streets are empty now for the most part. There's a lot of good will I've witnessed recently, just people being more pleasant to each other when I've been in the grocery or the pharmacy. A lot of "thank yous" and "stay wells" and "we're all in this togethers." It helps. 
  23. Like
    OriZ got a reaction from Lemonslice in All things Corona Virus   
    For one, all my stats are ex. China. I've clearly mentioned that multiple times before. For two, haven't seen anyone but NTD report that.
     
    How you get from me saying the US can do better as far as testing goes, to 2018...I'm not sure 🙄
     
    We still need to at least double our testing, lets put it that way.
  24. Like
    OriZ got a reaction from Steeleballz in All things Corona Virus   
    Anyhow, while I am upping my total expectation for confirmed cases to ~8 million, the timeline is still pretty much the same. I think active cases will hit peak at around ~2.5 million in about 3 weeks. They should be down to less than 250k within 6 weeks. We'll see.
  25. Like
    OriZ got a reaction from Steeleballz in All things Corona Virus   
    For one, all my stats are ex. China. I've clearly mentioned that multiple times before. For two, haven't seen anyone but NTD report that.
     
    How you get from me saying the US can do better as far as testing goes, to 2018...I'm not sure 🙄
     
    We still need to at least double our testing, lets put it that way.
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