I know this question is kind of like asking how long is a piece of rope, but perhaps I can describe my circumstances and someone could make an educated guess at how long the CO would want to see me in a job role before approving the I-864 for my wife's case.
We are both still living in New Zealand completing our second Bachelor's degrees. At the end of the year we will hold four degrees between the two of us, which I think provides a great earning potential when looking at totality of circumstances and lowering the risk of my wife becoming a public charge. Because we have been living in NZ and studying, I don't have any US-based income in the last three years. We will finish our degrees in November and I plan on moving to the US and into a job immediately. I predict that I will be able to find a job paying $50-60k. So I will file taxes with the IRS at the end of 2021 with one month's worth of US-based income, and then how long should I expect to work before filing the I-864 with pay stubs and employer letter?
We are coming from a very low-fraud country. I am aware of the "six months of pay stubs" language used in the I-864 instructions, but as @pushbrk has repeatedly pointed out in threads that I've read, one pay stub is sufficient to show your current income, and YTD income is basically irrelevant as long as current income is above the threshold. But then this poses the question, what would be the harm in getting a job at the end of November, working all of December and then sending the I-864 in Jan-Feb 2022 with a pay stub, employer letter and 2021 tax transcript? Is that likely to be denied by the CO as there is not enough history of current income?
Maybe this is a question which cannot just be easily answered as they look at the totality of circumstances and it's subjective, but also surely the CO will acknowledge that I've been residing overseas and studying, hence not a longer history of US-based income, in addition to the fact that we have decent earning potential between the two of us given our education, and the fact we're coming from a low-fraud country? Or am I being too hopeful? My current understanding is that I'd need to work for six months, so I could send I-864 in early June 2022 and my wife could join me in the US in August-September 2022 if all went well, but 10-12 months is definitely longer than we would want to be separated if at all possible.
As a side note, joint sponsor is practically out of the question. I had someone lined up but they changed their mind, and I'd rather not ask anyone else as I don't think it's likely that I could find someone who will do it.
Any advice is hugely appreciated.