Number of cases processed hit new high!

[FilledesEtoiles 335]

8 hours ago, GinoNiña said:

They are at 50% at the moment, so I guess I belong to 80% or  worst is at 20%!!!

Yep same here, we are both 1 April filers .... in the same boat lol

[Quimat 154]

49 minutes ago, amin krin said:

I didn't see alot of approvals today 🙁

Are you basing this off the scanner or Facebook groups? Remember it’s best to focus on the weeks and not so much the days. 

Edited May 2, 2023 by Quimat

[Cheesehead22 86]

4 hours ago, amin krin said:

I didn't see alot of approvals today 🙁

I see plenty of approvals because people around me are getting the touches lol

[New Romantics 188]

Another great day yesterday! Eager to see today's numbers

[HC&DJXG 43]

We are early April filers and I've started to fantasize about finally posting here to announce our NOA2 😅

[AndiB 662]

Oh just noticed my estimate dropped a whole week 😍

[Quimat 154]

14 minutes ago, AndiB said:

Oh just noticed my estimate dropped a whole week 😍

Mine is now in 2023 and I could literally cry!! 

[Quimat 154]

Saw this posted in a Facebook group and it really makes me happy! One of the admins, however, say it’s not really reliable and referred to the Google spreadsheet we all follow. Based on the Spreadsheet he estimated that someone that filed in June should be adjudicated in about 4-5 months from now? What do you all think?

[Naterson 129]

7 minutes ago, Quimat said:

Saw this posted in a Facebook group and it really makes me happy! One of the admins, however, say it’s not really reliable and referred to the Google spreadsheet we all follow. Based on the Spreadsheet he estimated that someone that filed in June should be adjudicated in about 4-5 months from now? What do you all think?

It kind of depends which part of the group you're in I think. Based on current processing rates, I think this is a conservative estimate for when each month will start processing. We're already starting to see April approvals in May, and so I think we'll be well ahead of July for May approvals.

 

I'm keeping this timeframe as my frame of mind so that anything earlier is a pleasant surprise, while an approval in November would be right on track. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Edited May 4, 2023 by Naterson

[Quimat 154]

34 minutes ago, Naterson said:

It kind of depends which part of the group you're in I think. Based on current processing rates, I think this is a conservative estimate for when each month will start processing. We're already starting to see April approvals in May, and so I think we'll be well ahead of July for May approvals.

 

I'm keeping this timeframe as my frame of mind so that anything earlier is a pleasant surprise, while an approval in November would be right on track. 🤷🏻‍♂️

I agree. His perspective of June filers getting an approval in 4-5 months which is basically   in September/October didn’t seem right to me. (Him meaning that specific Facebook group’s admin)

Edited May 4, 2023 by Quimat

[AndiB 662]

6 hours ago, Quimat said:

Saw this posted in a Facebook group and it really makes me happy! One of the admins, however, say it’s not really reliable and referred to the Google spreadsheet we all follow. Based on the Spreadsheet he estimated that someone that filed in June should be adjudicated in about 4-5 months from now? What do you all think?

Yeah this is from February. The guy who posted it used to update to monthly but has sadly stopped now he's got his k1. The estimate is right for February but we've since sped up a lot which is why this is no longer accurate

[AndiB 662]

5 hours ago, Quimat said:

I agree. His perspective of June filers getting an approval in 4-5 months which is basically   in September/October didn’t seem right to me. (Him meaning that specific Facebook group’s admin)

He based it on the spreadsheet not realising  you need to minus like 2-2.5 months off the estimate for when they'll start a month. The spreadsheet estimates time based on if all cases ahead of you are finished, obv they start a month long before they finish cases ahead of you which is why it's shorter than the 4 months the spreadsheet says

[AndiB 662]

On 5/2/2023 at 11:01 PM, FilledesEtoiles said:

Well 1 April here and still waiting while 8 and 11 April are being approved ... so not so sure ...

The trend is just that if you're like 1-15 of a month you're more likely to see an approval early than 15-30. So you're more likely to see an approval soon than someone who filed on 30th April. The 8 and 11th are still first half. They only JUST started April so hopefully you see your approval soon 🙏

 

Too early to be discouraged

[sp207 3]

On 1/15/2023 at 9:52 AM, AndiB said:

I'm Oct 2022 as well! Honestly I'd expect Jan-Feb 2024 still but that's better than summer 2024 that we were trending towards. Could get lucky and squeeze into 2023 though!

I filled in December 2022. It should have been mid-November but I sent the I-129F documentation from another country and customs took forever. I have obviously seen the report about USCIS's goals for reducing current backlogs (https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/reducing-processing-backlogs), but when I look at actual processing times (https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/) for the California Service Center, it's saying that the I-129F ALONE will take 16.5 months. Am I looking at correct information? If that form alone takes so long to process, how long will the rest take? Also, can I use USCIS's new cycle time goals to leverage my congressman into assisting me with this when the 6-month waiting mark passes?

[AndiB 662]

7 minutes ago, sp207 said:

I filled in December 2022. It should have been mid-November but I sent the I-129F documentation from another country and customs took forever. I have obviously seen the report about USCIS's goals for reducing current backlogs (https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/reducing-processing-backlogs), but when I look at actual processing times (https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/) for the California Service Center, it's saying that the I-129F ALONE will take 16.5 months. Am I looking at correct information? If that form alone takes so long to process, how long will the rest take? Also, can I use USCIS's new cycle time goals to leverage my congressman into assisting me with this when the 6-month waiting mark passes?

The 16.5 months is based on historical data, they base it on the past 6 months which is likely sept-feb. In sept they were processing 2000/month which is less than half of the ~5000 they're processing per month now. That means their estimate is out of date but it's how USCIS does things as usually their processing times don't change that drastically.

 

The *current* time looks to be about 12-16 months with most being 13-14months. They start a new month about every 3 weeks which means the time is constantly decreasing. 

 

For a dec 2022 filer, I expect they'd start Dec in mid-Oct so you have a good chance of seeing an approval or RFE by the new year.

 

Also USCIS 16.5 months is how long until you get an approval or denial. So people who get RFEs and either take a long time to reply, uscis takes a long time to review or both will extend this time. You used to get 60(?) days to respond to RFEs and people often used a majority of it but now it's back to 30days so the tail of approvals/denials due to rfe should hopefully also decrease.

 

Final note, these estimates are purely estimates, sadly there's always a small number left behind. There are people in April 2022 getting approvals at the same time as those in Nov and Dec 2021. It's a small small fraction but there's no guarantee you won't end up someone waiting longer than others so always plan for the worst but hope for the best. Either way you should def get something back from uscis before 16.5 months