Number of cases processed hit new high!

[Cheesehead22 86]

This is going to be a strong week. 1200. I can feel it

[Nikobe 129]

On 4/22/2023 at 1:09 PM, Quimat said:

Overthinking for simply asking a question? Ok. If this is the case, every last one of us are overthinking when we ask a question. I simply asked for opinions on something I noticed. Respectfully, this process is stressful and if I have a community of people I can ask questions to without judgment then that’s what I’ll do. 

That was not my intention. But you’re asking about average 190 after one of the best weeks since January, which also averaged over 230 cases per day. So, I guess more confused about the question. Later I saw that you simply did not see the averages in the progressing report. So, then your question makes more sense, I guess. We’ re all in this together as you say and I am trying to say that you should not excessively worry about single days. Could have written it down in more sentences, I admit!

[AndiB 662]

Good numbers today but normal for a Monday (still exciting tho!)

 

I see we've upgraded to having a column for 4.5k and 5k for monthly in estimated time. Wild to think we were just at 4k not long ago 👀

 

Should be staying April any minute now right? April page here is pretty quiet though

[meladee 160]

I feel like we'll see April touched by the end of this week (but March 2022 is such a huge cohort that it's hard to say for certain!)

[Bh_sarah 942]

It personally hurts me to say, but I also feel they will start April 22 by the end of this week/start of the next. They are moving on and slowing down significantly when a month hits 50% and March is having around 5% completed every day.

And yes, most early 2022 filer topics are EMPTY, I feel everyone is on Facebook. It's so weird to see that because 2021 filer topics were so busy! And you'd think a long wait would make people reach out to the first forum they can find... which is this one haha

[FilledesEtoiles 335]

25 minutes ago, Bh_sarah said:

It personally hurts me to say, but I also feel they will start April 22 by the end of this week/start of the next. They are moving on and slowing down significantly when a month hits 50% and March is having around 5% completed every day.

And yes, most early 2022 filer topics are EMPTY, I feel everyone is on Facebook. It's so weird to see that because 2021 filer topics were so busy! And you'd think a long wait would make people reach out to the first forum they can find... which is this one haha

I feel sad for the people left behind from previous months. Yes indeed, I guess it depends on the groups, some are more vocal than others. So does this mean they move on to the next month when the previous one is at 50% completed?

[Ok-Mix 117]

Speaking of previous months, I've noticed a little more activity for old months like July-November 2021 on the Lawfully web site and spreadsheet... most of them were approvals! So happy for them finally!

[Bh_sarah 942]

23 minutes ago, FilledesEtoiles said:

I feel sad for the people left behind from previous months. Yes indeed, I guess it depends on the groups, some are more vocal than others. So does this mean they move on to the next month when the previous one is at 50% completed?

That's my perspective on things now. I used to think it was 80%, but now that they are completing more cases per week, it also seems they are rushing through months and moving on at 50%. I feel the activity slows down significantly on 50% (from 100 cases approved daily to around 40), but it *drastically* slows down when they are close to 80% meaning they basically only close around 5-10 cases daily in those that are around 80% (comparing December daily numbers vs January daily numbers vs February).

We'll see if this pattern continues once March reaches 50% and February reaches 75-80%.

[Ok-Mix 117]

On Obllak's sheet it looks like Feb is at 81% and March at 48.8%, so let's see soon..... 

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

2 minutes ago, Bh_sarah said:

That's my perspective on things now. I used to think it was 80%, but now that they are completing more cases per week, it also seems they are rushing through months and moving on at 50%. I feel the activity slows down significantly on 50% (from 100 cases approved daily to around 40), but it *drastically* slows down when they are close to 80% meaning they basically only close around 5-10 cases daily in those that are around 80% (comparing December daily numbers vs January daily numbers vs February).

We'll see if this pattern continues once March reaches 50% and February reaches 75-80%.

 

It looks like they touch almost everyone before moving on, right? For example, Feb is at ~80% touched, but they probably won't accelerate to other months until they are at ~75-80% processed ~95% touched. At least that is how I see it playing out, but maybe I am interpreting their flow differently. 

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

Just now, Ok-Mix said:

On Obllak's sheet it looks like Feb is at 81% and March at 48.8%, so let's see soon..... 

If they pivot off Feb at where it is now soon, I will start getting concerned. But I have raging anxiety lol  

[Bh_sarah 942]

7 minutes ago, FromMexico W/Love said:

 

It looks like they touch almost everyone before moving on, right? For example, Feb is at ~80% touched, but they probably won't accelerate to other months until they are at ~75-80% processed ~95% touched. At least that is how I see it playing out, but maybe I am interpreting their flow differently. 

Oh, you're talking about touched cases, talking about RFEs and pending too. I usually only care about the processed ones to be fair, and that's to me how they also count the processing rates on USCIS? Or maybe they also have RFEs they sent inside the 16.5 processing time? To me it was all closed/processed/reached a final decision cases. The pending ones to me can be misleading because it can be just a name or address update and doesn't necessarily mean to me they are reviewing the case at all.

Sorry, I should have made that distinction, I feel as soon as February reached around 50% *closed* cases, they moved on to March.

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

1 minute ago, Bh_sarah said:

Oh, you're talking about touched cases, talking about RFEs and pending too. I usually only care about the processed ones to be fair, and that's to me how they also count the processing rates on USCIS? Or maybe they also have RFEs they sent inside the 16.5 processing time? To me it was all closed/processed/reached a final decision cases. The pending ones to me can be misleading because it can be just a name or address update and doesn't necessarily mean to me they are reviewing the case at all.

Sorry, I should have made that distinction, I feel as soon as February reached around 50% *closed* cases, they moved on to March.

Okay that makes sense, and I'm not sure how they count their numbers and it's becoming less importnat since we have so much insight lol maybe even more than them. I bet Obllak knows more about their processing times than the director there lol

 

To me personally, "touched" cases is what matters. If I can know ~90% of the cases for my month will be "touched" in a certain time frame, lets say 13 months for Sep 2022, that gives me a greater insight when I would potentially hear something from USCIS (approval, denial, RFE, whatever). If that makes sense. 

[Bh_sarah 942]

18 minutes ago, FromMexico W/Love said:

Okay that makes sense, and I'm not sure how they count their numbers and it's becoming less importnat since we have so much insight lol maybe even more than them. I bet Obllak knows more about their processing times than the director there lol

 

To me personally, "touched" cases is what matters. If I can know ~90% of the cases for my month will be "touched" in a certain time frame, lets say 13 months for Sep 2022, that gives me a greater insight when I would potentially hear something from USCIS (approval, denial, RFE, whatever). If that makes sense. 

Yep, I understand the feeling of wanting the case to be touched (untouched here just dying to have a tiny sign of life from USCIS), so your perspective does make sense! But also somehow to me it seems the RFEs are sent and then the case ends up dying because they never respond to it? The number of RFEs sent is so high compared to the RFEs received. This is a mystery to me. Are they not updating the system, are people never replying to RFEs? Also because once the RFE is sent and then received, they have no timeframe to actually make a decision in your case, it feels it would take 2 weeks or months. So I'm not even sure if they count those cases in their processing rates as well. When we think we understand it, we realize we don't know anything at all about this whole thing!!! haha 

You now put me into a perspective that I was indeed left in the 20% when it comes to touched cases. It was better when it was the last 50% of still pending cases. I am not sure which one is better hahaha I tell you, we know from the start it's not in order, and that you didn't do anything wrong to be left behind, but when you start seeing people that filed in the same date as you already waiting for NVC letters... it hurts. And all rational thinking goes out the window. 

Edited April 25, 2023 by Bh_sarah

[AndiB 662]

2 hours ago, meladee said:

I feel like we'll see April touched by the end of this week (but March 2022 is such a huge cohort that it's hard to say for certain!)

I think they're at almost 50% march so 👀