Number of cases processed hit new high!

[AndiB 661]

Talk of processing hitting 700-800 last week! I am unsure if the spreadsheet I follow includes RFEs as it's usually almost 100 out from totals I see elsewhere so we're either meeting incoming or close to! Either way we shouldn't be seeing jumps in wait times any more (maybe we'll get one more 0.5 increase) and hopefully by spring they'll be tackling the backlog if not sooner!

 

Unless there's a drastic change I don't know if we'll see much of a decrease in wait time this year but maybe we'll at least see some but right now I'm just happy that we shouldn't have longer waits coming!!

[Anna Hessler 119]

I ran numbers by hand for July-November and got around 840. Approved, denied and RFE. Trying to post it here but the image is getting messed up. One sec!

Edited January 15, 2023 by Anna Hessler

[h02ejmajja 48]

1 hour ago, AndiB said:

Talk of processing hitting 700-800 last week! I am unsure if the spreadsheet I follow includes RFEs as it's usually almost 100 out from totals I see elsewhere so we're either meeting incoming or close to! Either way we shouldn't be seeing jumps in wait times any more (maybe we'll get one more 0.5 increase) and hopefully by spring they'll be tackling the backlog if not sooner!

 

Unless there's a drastic change I don't know if we'll see much of a decrease in wait time this year but maybe we'll at least see some but right now I'm just happy that we shouldn't have longer waits coming!!

 

Where is a spreadsheet with cases being processed weekly?

[AndiB 661]

2 minutes ago, h02ejmajja said:

Where is a spreadsheet with cases being processed weekly?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/15hiSOTm85W1CG6c0jzQ8B7lXLo1JEwsWKr3zIszC2Zg/htmlview#

It often lags so give it a week or two before worrying about numbers. Like I've seen 100 before only for it to jump to 600 a week later 😂

[h02ejmajja 48]

1 minute ago, AndiB said:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/15hiSOTm85W1CG6c0jzQ8B7lXLo1JEwsWKr3zIszC2Zg/htmlview#

It often lags so give it a week or two before worrying about numbers. Like I've seen 100 before only for it to jump to 600 a week later 😂

I guess what I'm wondering in the bigger picture is - where is someone getting the original information from? I didnt think that USCIS / Dept of State published weekly numbers of incoming petitions? 

 

[AndiB 661]

1 minute ago, h02ejmajja said:

I guess what I'm wondering in the bigger picture is - where is someone getting the original information from? I didnt think that USCIS / Dept of State published weekly numbers of incoming petitions? 

 

Someone else will give you a better answer but people are somehow able to pull data from somewhere on approvals, denials and rfe's. I think it's a very manual process (so have to pull case by case) which is why the number can vary a bit between people who do this. 

None of it is officially shared by USCIS as you are correct, they don't publish these sort of stats themselves. It seems to have been pretty reliable though, as people can estimate how much processing time will increase based on the stats and have been pretty correct in the past. 

With the new numbers, we should expect it to stop increasing and hopefully slowly start decreasing. We'll have to wait to see how it trends for next few weeks though

[h02ejmajja 48]

1 minute ago, AndiB said:

None of it is officially shared by USCIS as you are correct, they don't publish these sort of stats themselves. It seems to have been pretty reliable though, as people can estimate how much processing time will increase based on the stats and have been pretty correct in the past. 
 

If none of it is processed by USCIS then whoever is extrapolating this data is reporting it based on what people are self reporting. People lie, people get lazy - this doesn't really mean anything if it's not official sites. 

 

Even on USCIS official sites the information can be confusing because the I-129 is used for both K1, K2, K3 and K4 so even when you look at those petitions (published quarterly) there's no way to know for sure how many are for each category. 

[New Romantics 188]

As an October 2022 filer this makes me really happy! Hopefully my approval will be within 2023  Hang in there everyone, we've got this!

Edited January 15, 2023 by New Romantics

[New Romantics 188]

1 minute ago, h02ejmajja said:

If none of it is processed by USCIS then whoever is extrapolating this data is reporting it based on what people are self reporting. People lie, people get lazy - this doesn't really mean anything if it's not official sites. 

 

Even on USCIS official sites the information can be confusing because the I-129 is used for both K1, K2, K3 and K4 so even when you look at those petitions (published quarterly) there's no way to know for sure how many are for each category. 

Someone who knows can correct me, but I don't think the data is extrapolated. It's more that they run some sort of script and collect updates on the case numbers, or something of the sort. I'm not a computer person lol 

[AndiB 661]

13 minutes ago, h02ejmajja said:

If none of it is processed by USCIS then whoever is extrapolating this data is reporting it based on what people are self reporting. People lie, people get lazy - this doesn't really mean anything if it's not official sites. 

 

Even on USCIS official sites the information can be confusing because the I-129 is used for both K1, K2, K3 and K4 so even when you look at those petitions (published quarterly) there's no way to know for sure how many are for each category. 

it's not based off people self reporting as not everyone is in a forum to share news and as you say, it's not reliable. I meant manual as there's some way to see daily approvals, rejections and rfe's, I don't do this and haven't looked into it to I don't know the *exact* process but it's pulled from the USCIS site so it's reliable. It's just not *exact*. So it's usually off by like a few 10's from what I've seen

13 minutes ago, New Romantics said:

Someone who knows can correct me, but I don't think the data is extrapolated. It's more that they run some sort of script and collect updates on the case numbers, or something of the sort. I'm not a computer person lol 

You're correct, I think some people will do it manually and count from where ever you pull the data but some people have made computer scripts that automate this process. 

[AndiB 661]

16 minutes ago, New Romantics said:

As an October 2022 filer this makes me really happy! Hopefully my approval will be within 2023  Hang in there everyone, we've got this!

I'm Oct 2022 as well! Honestly I'd expect Jan-Feb 2024 still but that's better than summer 2024 that we were trending towards. Could get lucky and squeeze into 2023 though!

[New Romantics 188]

2 minutes ago, AndiB said:

I'm Oct 2022 as well! Honestly I'd expect Jan-Feb 2024 still but that's better than summer 2024 that we were trending towards. Could get lucky and squeeze into 2023 though!

If this trend keeps up and we go into the 900-1000 range per week I think we have a shot of getting approved in time for Christmas haha

[AndiB 661]

2 minutes ago, New Romantics said:

If this trend keeps up and we go into the 900-1000 range per week I think we have a shot of getting approved in time for Christmas haha

Hopefully, they're aiming to get down to 6months this yr which I don't think will happen but it does imply they're making big changes rapidly (ie it's not going to be years before we see improvements). I do expect to see us doing about 1k by march based on the trend so far but it's impossible to know as we don't know what the changes or timeline of changes are.

 

If you add your timeline on your profile it keeps you up to date on what your estimate is based on other users timelines btw. 

[h02ejmajja 48]

2 minutes ago, AndiB said:

I do expect to see us doing about 1k by march based on the trend so far but it's impossible to know as we don't know what the changes or timeline of changes are.

Or - as you've admitted yourself, it's not reliable....

[New Romantics 188]

5 minutes ago, AndiB said:

Hopefully, they're aiming to get down to 6months this yr which I don't think will happen but it does imply they're making big changes rapidly (ie it's not going to be years before we see improvements). I do expect to see us doing about 1k by march based on the trend so far but it's impossible to know as we don't know what the changes or timeline of changes are.

 

If you add your timeline on your profile it keeps you up to date on what your estimate is based on other users timelines btw. 

I am so excited to see where this goes lol. I think I might pass out if I see them doing 1000 or more 😂😂