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Laud

I-130 in Texas SC

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Hi all,

 

We've not been on this forum in much since submitting of I-130, but today I've gone down a rabbit hole today looking for guidance on when we'll hear back about our I130 (NOA1 8-Apr-21). It looks as though when being assigned a service center, Texas is a fairly short straw to pull. We've tried not to think too much about it as we're still within the 10.5 - 14 month expected wait time stated on the USCIS website.

 

Browsing this site I was shocked to find the Processing Times tab estimates that they're currently processing I-130s with an NOA1 date of 16-Jun-21 (8 months) which is way under the estimate on the USCIS website. I decided to go digging through the timeline search to see if this was really true.

 

I've attached a diagram of the wait times from NOA1 to NOA2 for the past 75 NOA2s at TSC. What's really interesting is that after an early flutter of quick processes (expedited?) there is a real lull - barely anyone was processed between 160 and 200 days. Then from 240 days there is a steady increase until a giant crescendo of people being processed between 320 and 340 days*. After 360 days, or roughly one year, almost everyone had been processed, with just occasional outliers going into a second year of waiting (2 of whom went off this chart). I assumed - maybe wrongly - that these cases were delayed with RFEs or ran into other problems.

 

*9 of the 15 cases in the modal group were between 333 and 339 days (inclusive), and 8 of those were in the 25 most recent approved cases.

 

If we ignore the (assumed) expedited cases at the beginning and (assumed) challenging cases at the end, there is a fairly short window we expect to hear back about the I-130, as well as a hard stop after 360 days where we'd certainly expect to hear back by (touch wood).

 

For us, the difficulty isn't just the waiting, but it's not knowing how long the wait will last. After looking through recent cases we feel much more comfortable so thought I'd share for anyone in a similar position.

Screenshot 2022-02-08 134829.png

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Morocco
Timeline

If everyone that did a petition joined VJ 

AND

if everyone did a profile  timeline and kept up with posting every step, then the wait times could predict and match USCIS 

but they don't

 

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54 minutes ago, Laud said:

For us, the difficulty isn't just the waiting, but it's not knowing how long the wait will last. After looking through recent cases we feel much more comfortable so thought I'd share for anyone in a similar position.

💯

 

Couldn't agree more.  The only challenge with this, is if some people submit an I-129F as well.  If I had know the "trick" of also submitting an I-129F to cut the line (as several people have experienced), I likely would have sent that in, but I'm getting fairly close to my Service-Center PD so it's likely not worth the effort.  This element seems to throw off the stats/timelines for folks that only submit the I-130.  I agree with @JeanneAdil though, Process Center times probably align best to reality, and should be the main source of estimation.

Edited by Idlewild
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43 minutes ago, JeanneAdil said:

If everyone that did a petition joined VJ 

AND

if everyone did a profile  timeline and kept up with posting every step, then the wait times could predict and match USCIS 

but they don't

 

Just to stoke the flames, it's also apparent that many people have their cases moved without any notice coming from USCIS. (Only finding out by contacting and specifically asking for an update on where their case is) 

 

So, the expected timeline almost becomes useless with COVID changing so many factors.

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3 minutes ago, ohiohopeful said:

Just to stoke the flames, it's also apparent that many people have their cases moved without any notice coming from USCIS. (Only finding out by contacting and specifically asking for an update on where their case is) 

 

So, the expected timeline almost becomes useless with COVID changing so many factors.

agree, ours was moved from nebraska to potomac, no notice, nothing.

 

found out by trying to file an out of normal processing time request as we thought in nebraska but it kept saying in normal time so couldnt, reason - moved without notice.

 

i truly feel the only timeline you can work to is the one of when they approve it, thats the timeline

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44 minutes ago, Idlewild said:

💯

 

Couldn't agree more.  The only challenge with this, is if some people submit an I-129F as well.  If I had know the "trick" of also submitting an I-129F to cut the line (as several people have experienced), I likely would have sent that in, but I'm getting fairly close to my Service-Center PD so it's likely not worth the effort.  This element seems to throw off the stats/timelines for folks that only submit the I-130.  I agree with @JeanneAdil though, Process Center times probably align best to reality, and should be the main source of estimation.

there's another forum where they suggest a sweet spot of when to submit the 129F, you can do it too early (allegedly) but there again on the same forum there are people who say it made no difference, its pretty much a 50/50 split on its success.

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26 minutes ago, KD&CM said:

agree, ours was moved from nebraska to potomac, no notice, nothing.

 

found out by trying to file an out of normal processing time request as we thought in nebraska but it kept saying in normal time so couldnt, reason - moved without notice.

 

i truly feel the only timeline you can work to is the one of when they approve it, thats the timeline

Ours was the same, Nebraska to Potomac with no notice, although received the final I130 approval before Potomac estimates, and with a I129F filed after I found out about the case moving.

 

What a mess!

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4 hours ago, Laud said:

Hi all,

 

We've not been on this forum in much since submitting of I-130, but today I've gone down a rabbit hole today looking for guidance on when we'll hear back about our I130 (NOA1 8-Apr-21). It looks as though when being assigned a service center, Texas is a fairly short straw to pull. We've tried not to think too much about it as we're still within the 10.5 - 14 month expected wait time stated on the USCIS website.

 

Browsing this site I was shocked to find the Processing Times tab estimates that they're currently processing I-130s with an NOA1 date of 16-Jun-21 (8 months) which is way under the estimate on the USCIS website. I decided to go digging through the timeline search to see if this was really true.

 

I've attached a diagram of the wait times from NOA1 to NOA2 for the past 75 NOA2s at TSC. What's really interesting is that after an early flutter of quick processes (expedited?) there is a real lull - barely anyone was processed between 160 and 200 days. Then from 240 days there is a steady increase until a giant crescendo of people being processed between 320 and 340 days*. After 360 days, or roughly one year, almost everyone had been processed, with just occasional outliers going into a second year of waiting (2 of whom went off this chart). I assumed - maybe wrongly - that these cases were delayed with RFEs or ran into other problems.

 

*9 of the 15 cases in the modal group were between 333 and 339 days (inclusive), and 8 of those were in the 25 most recent approved cases.

 

If we ignore the (assumed) expedited cases at the beginning and (assumed) challenging cases at the end, there is a fairly short window we expect to hear back about the I-130, as well as a hard stop after 360 days where we'd certainly expect to hear back by (touch wood).

 

For us, the difficulty isn't just the waiting, but it's not knowing how long the wait will last. After looking through recent cases we feel much more comfortable so thought I'd share for anyone in a similar position.

Screenshot 2022-02-08 134829.png

Would you be willing to do this for the California Service Center?

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15 hours ago, KD&CM said:

there's another forum where they suggest a sweet spot of when to submit the 129F, you can do it too early (allegedly) but there again on the same forum there are people who say it made no difference, its pretty much a 50/50 split on its success.

I saw a case where I-129F was sent in a few days after the I-130 and the case was approved in 2 months. 

But, I've also seen case be approved in 2 months without expedite. 

A few months back, they were saying I-129F only works with Potomac but I'm seeing some cases be approved after a month or so after the I-129F is sent in when it comes to other service centers. So, who knows... I'm just hoping we get our NOA2 before the end of the month. 

Edited by Kor2USA
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2 hours ago, Kor2USA said:

I saw a case where I-129F was sent in a few days after the I-130 and the case was approved in 2 months. 

But, I've also seen case be approved in 2 months without expedite. 

A few months back, they were saying I-129F only works with Potomac but I'm seeing some cases be approved after a month or so after the I-129F is sent in when it comes to other service centers. So, who knows... I'm just hoping we get our NOA2 before the end of the month. 

I've joined a few Facebook groups to learn as much as possible - I've seen so many people posting that their IR1/CR1 I130 was approved in 1-3 months because of an I129F - I don't have a clue how trustworthy the comments are, but all of the process guides on the groups actively encourage the I129F, as opposed to most commenters on VisaJourney advising against it.

 

Seems that the I129F just needs to be shut down once and for all, with all resource going towards family visas to clear the backlog.

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1 hour ago, ohiohopeful said:

I've joined a few Facebook groups to learn as much as possible - I've seen so many people posting that their IR1/CR1 I130 was approved in 1-3 months because of an I129F - I don't have a clue how trustworthy the comments are

I joined Facebook groups too and found it really helpful. I also saw a lot of comments saying their I-130s were approved really quickly. But, I also have a friend whose I-130 was approved in 2 months early 2021. I don't know if there was a sweet spot where I-130s were being approved super quick because spousal visas were a priority. I wish I could track all the data and put it together. 

 

1 hour ago, ohiohopeful said:

I don't have a clue how trustworthy the comments are, but all of the process guides on the groups actively encourage the I129F, as opposed to most commenters on VisaJourney advising against it.

I think the older members on VJ advise against it as they're still old school "it won't be approved" as opposed to the "anything to get your case looked at/ approved"  mentality people currently going through the process have.

There's this belief that because I waited my turn, you have to wait your turn to... That's just my opinion. 

I also think a lot of people on VJ file the I-129F but don't advertise it/ unless you write a note in your immigration timeline no one is going to know. 

 

1 hour ago, ohiohopeful said:

Seems that the I129F just needs to be shut down once and for all, with all resource going towards family visas to clear the backlog.

They're still approving some K3s who knows why...

Do you think your I-129F helped, hurt or did nothing for your case?

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23 hours ago, Idlewild said:

💯

 

Couldn't agree more.  The only challenge with this, is if some people submit an I-129F as well.  If I had know the "trick" of also submitting an I-129F to cut the line (as several people have experienced), I likely would have sent that in, but I'm getting fairly close to my Service-Center PD so it's likely not worth the effort.  This element seems to throw off the stats/timelines for folks that only submit the I-130.  I agree with @JeanneAdil though, Process Center times probably align best to reality, and should be the main source of estimation.

These are all good points but I don't know if I agree that the Process Center times aligning to reality. I doubt the peoples wait times are normally distributed across the 10.5-14 month bracket. Seems to me that it'd be sensible to add a buffer to the end of that window to prevent the added paper work of people sending in enquiries - which looks to be the case from the VJ data. Its all just a mix speculation and a small and crooked data set, but ultimately it something that makes me more hopeful and perhaps others too.

 

We're in a similar spot RE the I-129F, which I've only recently learnt about - this far into our journey it's unlikely to make a difference.

 

20 hours ago, Educ8r said:

Would you be willing to do this for the California Service Center?

Sorry, probably not. It was just a bit of procrastination while avoiding work. It's just Excel though so if you can be bothered to transfer the data from the tools on VJ it's very easy to do.

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2 minutes ago, Laud said:

These are all good points but I don't know if I agree that the Process Center times aligning to reality. I doubt the peoples wait times are normally distributed across the 10.5-14 month bracket. Seems to me that it'd be sensible to add a buffer to the end of that window to prevent the added paper work of people sending in enquiries - which looks to be the case from the VJ data. Its all just a mix speculation and a small and crooked data set, but ultimately it something that makes me more hopeful and perhaps others too.

 

We're in a similar spot RE the I-129F, which I've only recently learnt about - this far into our journey it's unlikely to make a difference.

 

Sorry, probably not. It was just a bit of procrastination while avoiding work. It's just Excel though so if you can be bothered to transfer the data from the tools on VJ it's very easy to do.

OK. No worries.  What did you search on VJ to get your data?  

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4 minutes ago, Educ8r said:

OK. No worries.  What did you search on VJ to get your data?  

I had the spreadsheet open still so did it for you. This is the data for the past 75 successful I130s with relevant timeline data.

 

Small data etc. etc. but it looks like it peaks out sooner than Texas, at the 200-220 day mark. So in most cases people have gotten their I130 through faster in CSC than TSC. However there is a much larger group of people who have gone over the year mark. The graph only represents 63 of the 75 people so that's 12 people who fall beyond this range (500 days) compared to 2 in TSC.

 

I'd be interested in giving these two charts to someone just starting the process and asking them which service centre they'd prefer based off this. I think for our situation TSC might have been slightly preferable, but maybe most people would roll the dice with CSC.

Screenshot 2022-02-09 150608.png

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7 minutes ago, Laud said:

but it looks like it peaks out sooner than Texas, at the 200-220 day mark.

I'm at day 182 so, hopefully, things start moving soon.  Ironically, I was working on the spreadsheet and got results very similar to yours.  (We may have picked slightly different data points)  Either way, it's good information to have.  I agree, it would be interesting to see what those beginning this journey would pick.  I hope it's all a mute point soon as we're approved.  Thank you again.

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