Estimated waiting time went up again

[mereal 11]

Hey!! I just checked my online account and I got surprised when I saw the estimated waiting time went up from two months to three months.. secsond time it went up.. had my interview July the 8th , got approved August the 9th.. I’ve been waiting since that day for my oath to be scheduled but they only kept adding time to the estimated waiting time..which is making me worrying about my case?!

had anyone went thrue the same thing and got his oath date before finishing the waiting time?

[Stevo1979 71]

Yes we all in the same boat.

 

This recent report jacked up everyone

N400_performancedata_fy2019_qtr2.pdf

[mereal 11]

1 hour ago, Stevo1979 said:

Yes we all in the same boat.

 

This recent report jacked up everyone

N400_performancedata_fy2019_qtr2.pdf 245.97 kB · 1 download

Thanks for this.. after looking at this  I feel I’m not getting my oath this year.. this numbers are just from the first quarter of the year... I can’t imagine how much applications they approved  so far! 

[Stevo1979 71]

39 minutes ago, mereal said:

Thanks for this.. after looking at this  I feel I’m not getting my oath this year.. this numbers are just from the first quarter of the year... I can’t imagine how much applications they approved  so far! 

Console yourself with the fact that it's just the official crowning you waiting on.

 

Some of us are just praying for an interview it's technically the most important part of the process 

[mereal 11]

43 minutes ago, Stevo1979 said:

Console yourself with the fact that it's just the official crowning you waiting on.

 

Some of us are just praying for an interview it's technically the most important part of the process 

That’s true.. I’ve waited a whole year for the interview!! I believe I had enough of the waiting game with uscis.. thanks o

[afrocraft 313]

On 9/21/2019 at 4:36 PM, mereal said:

Hey!! I just checked my online account and I got surprised when I saw the estimated waiting time went up from two months to three months..

Those waiting time estimates are practically useless. Pay them no attention.

[coloradoman 32]

1 hour ago, afrocraft said:

Those waiting time estimates are practically useless. Pay them no attention.

Seconded. When I had my interview and oath, the system still showed another 8 months until case completion. 

[Stevo1979 71]

12 hours ago, afrocraft said:

Those waiting time estimates are practically useless. Pay them no attention.

 

10 hours ago, coloradoman said:

Seconded. When I had my interview and oath, the system still showed another 8 months until case completion. 

75% of the time they are fairly accurate.

 

[afrocraft 313]

13 minutes ago, Stevo1979 said:

 

75% of the time they are fairly accurate.

 

Really? Where did you get that very precise statistic?

[Stevo1979 71]

1 hour ago, afrocraft said:

Really? Where did you get that very precise statistic?

USCIS has a website and that number correlates with figures pulled up from this website. Also to have a model that pulls up mathematical and scientific turn around estimates is not just for the fun of it

some investment has gone into it. If it was redundant and useless like you said they would not be throwing those  numbers around.

 

 

 

Edited September 23, 2019 by Stevo1979

[afrocraft 313]

31 minutes ago, Stevo1979 said:

USCIS has a website and that number correlates with figures pulled up from this website. Also to have a model that pulls up mathematical and scientific turn around estimates is not just for the fun of it

some investment has gone into it. If it was redundant and useless like you said they would not be throwing those  numbers around.

I see you still haven't lost your innocence about government bureaucracy. That's kinda cute 😊

 

Whatever the investment, and I'm sure it was significant, the estimates are practically useless. Practically is the operative word: for most field offices, the range of estimates is so wide and unintuitive that no serious person would find them unusable.

 

Take Washington DC, for instance. Current estimate for N-400 processing time is 8.5-15.5 months. Suppose you've been waiting for 9 months. Based on the estimate, should you expect a decision soon, or should you take that 3-month holiday to the Seychelles?

 

It gets even worse. According to USCIS, the low end is the time it takes them to complete processing of 50% of applications in the prior 2 months. So what is the DC-based applicant at Month 9 to think?

Edited September 23, 2019 by afrocraft

[afrocraft 313]

*No serious person would find it usable

[Stevo1979 71]

36 minutes ago, afrocraft said:

I see you still haven't lost your innocence about government bureaucracy. That's kinda cute 😊

 

Whatever the investment, and I'm sure it was significant, the estimates are practically useless. Practically is the operative word: for most field offices, the range of estimates is so wide and unintuitive that no serious person would find them unusable.

 

Take Washington DC, for instance. Current estimate for N-400 processing time is 8.5-15.5 months. Suppose you've been waiting for 9 months. Based on the estimate, should you expect a decision soon, or should you take that 3-month holiday to the Seychelles?

 

It gets even worse. According to USCIS, the low end is the time it takes them to complete processing of 50% of applications in the prior 2 months. So what is the DC-based applicant at Month 9 to think?

I am a statistician and I know what I am telling you. I am glad you are also throwing numbers you do not believe in around.

 

Just because your estimated TAT was way off and most probably an outlier doesn't necessarily mean other applicants experienced the same.

 If the system was not programmed to include estimates it is people like you that will still cry blue murder and complain about how mediocre  a government system is  

 

It is called "estimate" not 'sure banker"   and according to webster estimate   " is  an approximate calculation or judgment of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something"

95% of people I know directly had an accurate TAT and 90% of people said the estimated time did help them during processing.

 

 

Edited September 23, 2019 by Stevo1979

[afrocraft 313]

4 minutes ago, Stevo1979 said:

I am a statistician and I know what I am telling you. 

Ah. I see where the problem is. You're so impressed by the quantitative wizardry you forgot about the underlying use case. It's like being in awe of the waiter who (accurately) predicts your meal will be ready between 30 minutes and 5 hours. 

[Stevo1979 71]

4 minutes ago, afrocraft said:

Ah. I see where the problem is. You're so impressed by the quantitative wizardry you forgot about the underlying use case. It's like being in awe of the waiter who (accurately) predicts your meal will be ready between 30 minutes and 5 hours. 

Naivety is not the same as foolhardy. You are trying too hard to be funny.

You may have to get your ears checked or flee from that restaurant if "given" an estimated wait time of 165 minutes for food.

 

 

Edited September 23, 2019 by Stevo1979