Gas prices dip to under $2 a gallon

[VOL 425]

Averaging about 1.91 in my area, Just north of Dallas.

[DavenRoxy 1,073]

Gas prices are only news to all the "experts" that kept selling us that they are going to go over $5 a gallon. Now that prices have been cut by almost half, they are finally on board, now they suddenly predict lower prices. "Experts" are the perfect herd. They are always late to the trend. So beware, now that it's finally popular to say oil and gas prices are going down, I think they are actually at least close to a short term bottom. mid to long term I believe they will keep declining. I called this decline when the "experts" called prices going higher, and now that the experts are on the bandwagon it's time to call a bounce. Beware when a trend becomes too popular, that means it's almost exhausted.

Didn't you predict a pretty large down-turn in our economy by late 2014 a few months back? Doesn't appear to be happening yet.

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Didn't you predict a pretty large down-turn in our economy by late 2014 a few months back? Doesn't appear to be happening yet.

Any moment now.

[OriZ 3,157]

Didn't you predict a pretty large down-turn in our economy by late 2014 a few months back? Doesn't appear to be happening yet.

Can you show me where exactly I said there would be an exact time frame? I already said, stocks are as always the last holdout. Lets agree to meet here in two years, Dec 2016 and revisit this. I did the same thing with someone who mocked me in early 08, by the time the date we agreed on came, he was nowhere to be found. So don't go disappearing on me. This is going to take a while, it is a long process and there are many forces(such as the Federal Reserve) foolishly trying to fight it, temporarily holding it up.

Edited December 22, 2014 by OriZ

[OriZ 3,157]

It's probably also worth mentioning that when this first came up, I think like 10 months ago, I specifically said that as long as the S&P500 is above a certain level, they are good to go. They've stayed above it since, so obviously as far as I'm concerned they are still good to go. I've also said numerous times(pretty much every time it came up again since - and I've had to repeat myself cause nobody listened the first, second or third time so here we go lets say it yet again) that when I believe the serious decline has indeed started, I will explicitly mention it in the forum. I have not done that as of yet, so obviously, I do not believe it has. Stay calm, when it does, I will. And hopefully I don't have to repeat this again until then. But hey, don't confuse liberals with facts.

[DavenRoxy 1,073]

It's probably also worth mentioning that when this first came up, I think like 10 months ago, I specifically said that as long as the S&P500 is above a certain level, they are good to go. They've stayed above it since, so obviously as far as I'm concerned they are still good to go. I've also said numerous times(pretty much every time it came up again since - and I've had to repeat myself cause nobody listened the first, second or third time so here we go lets say it yet again) that when I believe the serious decline has indeed started, I will explicitly mention it in the forum. I have not done that as of yet, so obviously, I do not believe it has. Stay calm, when it does, I will. And hopefully I don't have to repeat this again until then. But hey, don't confuse liberals with facts.

Sure, I'll wait around for you to predict the decline of the market after it begins to decline. But bear in mind, I will probably expire in about 30 years...

[OriZ 3,157]

No worries, it's not going to take that long.

[DavenRoxy 1,073]

Can you show me where exactly I said there would be an exact time frame? I already said, stocks are as always the last holdout. Lets agree to meet here in two years, Dec 2016 and revisit this. I did the same thing with someone who mocked me in early 08, by the time the date we agreed on came, he was nowhere to be found. So don't go disappearing on me. This is going to take a while, it is a long process and there are many forces(such as the Federal Reserve) foolishly trying to fight it, temporarily holding it up.

The market is a bubble right now. I think 2014 a new downtrend will start, 2015 will be the panic stage.

Ok, technically you did not specify late 2014, that was a trick of my memory. But I was close...

[OriZ 3,157]

Sure, I'll wait around for you to predict the decline of the market after it begins to decline. But bear in mind, I will probably expire in about 30 years...

I do not claim to "predict" the market. I am not a psychic, only a trader. Flesh and blood. No one can actually do that. I do have a set of tools I work with that help me(or any trader with a good set of tools for that matter) identify trends when they first start, not when they end. I don't try to lead the market, I FOLLOW the market. what it tells me, I do. That means that if I have to wait for it to decline 5% in order to see if some of my conditions are being met and in order for me to safely be able to determine that a new downtrend has started, I see no shame in that. It's better than trying to call top, after top, after top right at the peak and failing. It is also better than trying to call bottom after bottom when that 5% decline turns into 50%. So we're not there yet, and I'd appreciate if you also paste the quote where I said as long as it is above that level it will keep going up, cause just because I post my thought which was it will begin this year, doesn't mean I trade based on that and I specifically mentioned that, too. There's what you think will happen, and there's what the indicators tell you. The indicators are saying: not quite yet. But when it comes I'll still be here to let you know.

Ok, technically you did not specify late 2014, that was a trick of my memory. But I was close...

Edited December 22, 2014 by OriZ

[DavenRoxy 1,073]

I do not claim to "predict" the market. I am not a psychic, only a trader. Flesh and blood. No one can actually do that. I do have a set of tools I work with that help me(or any trader with a good set of tools for that matter) identify trends when they first start, not when they end. I don't try to lead the market, I FOLLOW the market. what it tells me, I do. That means that if I have to wait for it to decline 5% in order to see if some of my conditions are being met and in order for me to safely be able to determine that a new downtrend has started, I see no shame in that. It's better than trying to call top, after top, after top right at the peak and failing. It is also better than trying to call bottom after bottom when that 5% decline turns into 50%. So we're not there yet, and I'd appreciate if you also paste the quote where I said as long as it is above that level it will keep going up, cause just because I post my thought which was it will begin this year, doesn't mean I trade based on that and I specifically mentioned that, too. There's what you think will happen, and there's what the indicators tell you. The indicators are saying: not quite yet. But when it comes I'll still be here to let you know.

Fair enough, and I don't pretend to know anything about the market nor where it will head, except what I see, and what I see seems to be a slow trend upwards. And if you were wrong about the late 2014/early 2015 decline, I won't hold it against you, I just said I don't see it happening. I hope you are wrong, for all of our sakes. If things DO get worse than 2008 was (as you postulated it will), I think it will set the middle class back so far it may be hard for most to recover in this lifetime. Land values tanked in 2008, and still have not recovered. It will take a while yet before they do, IFF there is not a setback in the near future.

OTWT (Only Time Will Tell), I always say. One can hope for the best, but should prepare for the worst.

ETA: And to be fair, you predicted gas would go way below $3 per gallon as things got worse. If your other predictions are correct, commodities and precious metals will tank next (if I understood you correctly).

Edited December 22, 2014 by DavenRoxy

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Can you show me where exactly I said there would be an exact time frame? I already said, stocks are as always the last holdout. Lets agree to meet here in two years, Dec 2016 and revisit this. I did the same thing with someone who mocked me in early 08, by the time the date we agreed on came, he was nowhere to be found. So don't go disappearing on me. This is going to take a while, it is a long process and there are many forces(such as the Federal Reserve) foolishly trying to fight it, temporarily holding it up.

You should be rich by now. How many times did your portfolio double in the last twelve months?

[MyLittlePony 340]

This is good but why the sudden drop in gas?

[spookyturtle 9,465]

This is good but why the sudden drop in gas?

Obama is helping us by lowering gas prices.

[Operator 1,925]

Obama is helping us by lowering gas prices.

Who was he helping when he raised them?

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Who was he helping when he raised them?

He did that to appease the environazis. Pay attention, will ya'?