First cutoff numbers for DV2015 are out!

[adalb 2]

Hello!

The first cutoff numbers for dv2015 have just been published.

Here they are:

AF 8000

AS 2500

EU 8500

NA 3

OC 400

SA 550

Any speculation about these numbers?

[Bandar 0]

AS 2500

OK that's fine for me I can say my interview will be before August coz my CN AS112xx. I think they will take more number this year from Asia.

[Sunnymrut 3]

Thank you, I'll be there in October!

[Sm1smom 253]

Hello!

The first cutoff numbers for dv2015 have just been published.

Here they are:

AF 8000

AS 2500

EU 8500

NA 3

OC 400

SA 550

Any speculation about these numbers?

What's there to speculate about numbers that have already been released?

[adalb 2]

What's there to speculate about numbers that have already been released?

Well, you can speculate about why they come up with these numbers or about how these numbers are going to evolve in the next months, for example.

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

They come up with the numbers based on the number of DS260 forms that have been submitted.

They will come up with numbers for the following months based on continued DS260 returns and data from the embassies on success rates, refusal rates, AP, and no-shows. They will adjust numbers as they go along depending on these and how they change/evolve over the fiscal year.

If you look at past trends in the numbers, you will see that it is pretty futile to speculate about numbers based on the first month's numbers or often even past the first few months before you can try predicting any trends.

Even so you can still get it badly wrong. DV2013 had people in the high 90s interviewing for AF for example and DV14 was cut off at 81.1k. There was nothing earlier in the year to indicate such a drastic change.

Still I realise that all the above won't stop people speculating continually right until Sept 30 of each year...

[adalb 2]

I agree with you Susie. I don't understand the way they allocate people for the first months, i.e. when interviews haven't begun yet. What's the purpose of having 2 (about 3, actually) bulletins with different numbers/jumps if you dont have any feedback "from the field"? It doesnt make much sense in my opinion, unless selectees with low CNs are sparser. Or maybe they know that usually for the month of October people are not prepared yet with all the documents needed.

Edited August 14, 2014 by adalb

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

I agree with you Susie. I don't understand the way they allocate people for the first months, i.e. when interviews haven't begun yet. What's the purpose of having 2 (about 3, actually) bulletins with different numbers/jumps if you dont have any feedback "from the field"? It doesnt make much sense in my opinion, unless selectees with low CNs are sparser. Or maybe they know that usually for the month of October people are not prepared yet with all the documents needed.

I don't understand what you're saying, and it certainly doesn't "agree" with me. They can get an indication of interest from the % of people that have returned DS260s. They will probably use some extrapolation from the previous year. They need a number to start with after all. What is your alternative proposal? A thumbsuck? What would you do?

I also don't understand what you mean about 3 bulletins. They have estimates for one month of DV15. I presume you realise that people need notice for their interviews, most people can't do medicals till they have an interview letter, can't get police certificates too early because they expire, many people don't live in the same city where they interview and need to arrange leave from work, transport, maybe accommodation etc. So it's not practical to announce numbere say a week in advance either.

Maybe I misunderstood your post ....

[adalb 2]

I don't understand what you're saying, and it certainly doesn't "agree" with me. They can get an indication of interest from the % of people that have returned DS260s. They will probably use some extrapolation from the previous year. They need a number to start with after all. What is your alternative proposal? A thumbsuck? What would you do?

I also don't understand what you mean about 3 bulletins. They have estimates for one month of DV15. I presume you realise that people need notice for their interviews, most people can't do medicals till they have an interview letter, can't get police certificates too early because they expire, many people don't live in the same city where they interview and need to arrange leave from work, transport, maybe accommodation etc. So it's not practical to announce numbere say a week in advance either.

Maybe I misunderstood your post ....

Sorry, probably my English is not that good. My intent was not to give bad credit to your post.

What I mean is that from now to the beginning of interviews, we are going to have 3 sets of cutoff numbers. One has just been published. One is coming at the beginning of september, and a 3rd one at the beginning of October.

What I dont understand is why they set the first cutoff numbers so high, and then increase them just of a few hundreds in the following 2 bulletins, without actually knowing how many people will attend the interview (it's still before the beginning of interviews).

Let's say, for example, that for EU they set 8500+2000+1500 = 12k. Wasn't it more natural to set for the first 3 months 4000 each, for example? How can they manage the first 8500 CNs in one month? I know they are not really 8500, but still they should be quite a lot.

Hope this is clearer. Not so sure...

As I said, this is just speculation...

[SusieQQQ 11,586]

Sorry, probably my English is not that good. My intent was not to give bad credit to your post.

What I mean is that from now to the beginning of interviews, we are going to have 3 sets of cutoff numbers. One has just been published. One is coming at the beginning of september, and a 3rd one at the beginning of October.

What I dont understand is why they set the first cutoff numbers so high, and then increase them just of a few hundreds in the following 2 bulletins, without actually knowing how many people will attend the interview (it's still before the beginning of interviews).

Let's say, for example, that for EU they set 8500+2000+1500 = 12k. Wasn't it more natural to set for the first 3 months 4000 each, for example? How can they manage the first 8500 CNs in one month? I know they are not really 8500, but still they should be quite a lot.

Hope this is clearer. Not so sure...

As I said, this is just speculation...

Like I said before, I am sure they have based this on a number of factors including past experience and the number of returns. Also, not every case number is valid and valid case numbers have different numbers of visas (derivatives) associated with them. KCC knows this info, we do not. As for how they can "manage", well they have interview slots for all case numbers so clearly they can.

[adalb 2]

Ok, thank you very much for your explanation. Of course they have much more information than we have, this is probably the key.