Upcoming july visa bulletin 2014

[franko 2]

Some evidence:

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/DV-2014-Instructions-Translations/FY12AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf

This is 10 years worth of stats, 2003-2012

Egypt exceeded 3500 in 2005, 2006 and 2007

In fully 7 of those years, Ethiopia exceeded 3500

Bangladesh exceeded 3500 in 2007

Uzbekistan exceeded 3500 in 2011

In 2003, 2010 and 2011, total DV visa issuance exceeded 50k

And obviously we know Iran last year exceeded 3500 too...not sure if there were any other "exceptions" last year?

There are enough "exceptions" to conclude that 50k is not a hard limit either in terms of overall visas or as a basis for the 7% rule.

I agree. There is a degree of freedom when it comes to visa issuance in last months of each lottery year. They just do not seem to follow any logical path there.

I just wonder how far will they take it this year ??

[vladek15425 7]

I agree. There is a degree of freedom when it comes to visa issuance in last months of each lottery year. They just do not seem to follow any logical path there.

I just wonder how far will they take it this year ??

53800

[Kayend 0]

Some evidence:

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/DV-2014-Instructions-Translations/FY12AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf

This is 10 years worth of stats, 2003-2012

Egypt exceeded 3500 in 2005, 2006 and 2007

In fully 7 of those years, Ethiopia exceeded 3500

Bangladesh exceeded 3500 in 2007

Uzbekistan exceeded 3500 in 2011

In 2003, 2010 and 2011, total DV visa issuance exceeded 50k

And obviously we know Iran last year exceeded 3500 too...not sure if there were any other "exceptions" last year?

There are enough "exceptions" to conclude that 50k is not a hard limit either in terms of overall visas or as a basis for the 7% rule.

No doubt that visa issuing can be more than 3500 but when can they do it and how? They only trigger September? They will use the so called NACARA quota back to DV only for AP clearing? Will KCC continue to schedule interviews even more than 4k selectees and once the visa issuing rate more than 3.5k, they will immediately use the special quota?

My point is this, I think KCC will target for 3500 visas for any country by in order to do that they might schedule more than 3500 based on the success rate of that country. The outcome can be more of less the target. So we cannot assume we going to get 3850 by default.

[SusieQQQ 11,585]

No doubt that visa issuing can be more than 3500 but when can they do it and how? They only trigger September? They will use the so called NACARA quota back to DV only for AP clearing? Will KCC continue to schedule interviews even more than 4k selectees and once the visa issuing rate more than 3.5k, they will immediately use the special quota?

My point is this, I think KCC will target for 3500 visas for any country by in order to do that they might schedule more than 3500 based on the success rate of that country. The outcome can be more of less the target. So we cannot assume we going to get 3850 by default.

Re the first paragraph - as I said before, the whole process of this is opaque and I don't think anyone here really has any idea how they do it.

And I absolutely agree we cannot assume we will get to 3850 by default - we have never had a single country reach that limit, in the 3700s is the highest I have seen. I was just saying that one should not assume 50000/3500 are hard limit numbers, because it is clear that they aren't. I'm also not entirely sure I agree with them targeting 3500, I might agree with that if all the ones in excess we had seen were say between 3501 and ...maybe, I dunno, 3550 or something but as I said we have seen in the 3700s AND we know that in at least two cases they have cancelled remaining interviews 0 not just that but even refused to issue visas to people who had just completed AP but not had visas issued yet - so it is not a case of they will continue interviewing and granting visas once they hit the quota just because they have scheduled interviews. When they feel they must stop they do indeed stop dead. But we don't actually know what that number is other than somewhere between 3501 and 3849...

I think most of us should be very thankful that we are not high CNs from over subscribed countries.

Edited May 10, 2014 by SusieQQQ

[levi2al 0]

for sure you will have it for august and on the top of that the first week

Wow, thank you brother. Now I have to think to find money for the first months in USA yup? Thank you dude and I wish to you luck for your process.

[Alex2014 0]

Iran: 473 selectees per 1k(1~6500), 160 visa per 1k(1~5350).

At CN 9900, Iran should already have 4700 selectees interviewed. If respond rate is about 80%(6000*80%=4800), then Iran will soon max out (no more selectees for future interviews)

Nepal:391 selectees per 1k(1~6500), 349 visa per 1k(1~5350)

At CN 10700, Nepal should already have 4200 selectees interviewed. Although it will not max out, it will reach its country quota (about 3750 visa issued)

According to dalius, ABD updated its data of 5351~6500 on May 4, resulting in an increase of about 280 ready status more for Iran. Therefore, Iran has about 516 selectees per 1k (1~6500). At CN 9100, Iran should have about 4700 interviewees. We don't exactly know the response rate of Iran, but I guess that Iran will max out between the end of July and the early August. If Aug is not current for Asia, then there should be a big jump in cut-off for the rest of Asia while Nepal should be limited to below 10,000.

[vladek15425 7]

According to dalius, ABD updated its data of 5351~6500 on May 4, resulting in an increase of about 280 ready status more for Iran. Therefore, Iran has about 516 selectees per 1k (1~6500). At CN 9100, Iran should have about 4700 interviewees. We don't exactly know the response rate of Iran, but I guess that Iran will max out between the end of July and the early August. If Aug is not current for Asia, then there should be a big jump in cut-off for the rest of Asia while Nepal should be limited to below 10,000.

According to the last data nepal will have 2800 cases up to june readys included so there its impossible to nepal to hit the limit under 10k cn range.

I would say around 11.5 !

[Alex2014 0]

According to the last data nepal will have 2800 cases up to june readys included so there its impossible to nepal to hit the limit under 10k cn range.

I would say around 11.5 !

Nepal:10k is for Aug. 11k for Sep. Anyway, Nepal should be put into special cut-off (whatever it is) so that the cut-off of the rest of Asia can jump substantially.

Rest of Asia and Iran: a zero-sum game. If most of Iran AP can be cleared, then cut-off for the rest of Asia will be lower. If not, higher or even current.

Edited May 12, 2014 by Alex2014

[vladek15425 7]

Nepal:10k is for Aug. 11k for Sep. Anyway, Nepal should be put into special cut-off (whatever it is) so that the cut-off of the rest of Asia can jump substantially.

Rest of Asia and Iran: a zero-sum game. If most of Iran AP can be cleared, then cut-off for the rest of Asia will be lower. If not, higher or even current.

Unfortunatly nepal was never put in special cut-off and it won't happen !

My guess is giving nepal +- 400 cases in each 1000 cn range, they will hit the country limit at about 11.5 because there will be some failures and non show ups !

So there will be a good jump in august and september...

Kcc will bargain on iran and nepal country limit .

I strongly believe so

[SusieQQQ 11,585]

We don't exactly know the response rate of Iran, but I guess that Iran will max out between the end of July and the early August.

We don't have lots of precedent for maxing out but the ones we do have all maxed out in Sept. I don't think this means it can't happen sooner - we know they issue max 10% month so July or August is not impossible with that in mind - but it would be the first such we are aware of. Then again we do have a very different dv this year to those before....

[Alex2014 0]

Unfortunatly nepal was never put in special cut-off and it won't happen !

My guess is giving nepal +- 400 cases in each 1000 cn range, they will hit the country limit at about 11.5 because there will be some failures and non show ups !

So there will be a good jump in august and september...

Kcc will bargain on iran and nepal country limit .

I strongly believe so

Okay, as you said, Nepal will hit its country limit at about 11.5k and will never be put into special cut-off. Then, those selectees of Nepal above CN11.5k (some with cn in 12~13k) can get visas, right?(no special Nepal cut-off and Asian cut-off is above 11.5k) Is it logical for those Nepaleses above 11.5k to get visas after Nepal hits its limit at 11.5k as you said?

Or,do you suggest that the cut-off for the rest of Asia will be limited to 11.5k in Sep?

Edited May 12, 2014 by Alex2014

[vladek15425 7]

Okay, as you said, Nepal will hit its country limit at about 11.5k and will never be put into special cut-off. Then, those selectees of Nepal above CN11.5k (some with cn in 12~13k) can get visas, right?(no special Nepal cut-off and Asian cut-off is above 11.5k) Is it logical for those Nepaleses above 11.5k to get visas after Nepal hits its limit at 11.5k as you said?

Or,do you suggest that the cut-off for the rest of Asia will be limited to 11.5k in Sep?

Unfortunatly the nepalees above 11.5k cn applications will all be dismissed, just like iran's case in 2013 on the 20th september.

But the rest of asia will benefit from those visas.

[Alex2014 0]

Unfortunatly the nepalees above 11.5k cn applications will all be dismissed, just like iran's case in 2013 on the 20th september.

But the rest of asia will benefit from those visas.

Let's wait and see.

[Kayend 0]

We just don't know what KCC will do. When we expect Nepal and Iran to put into special cut off (just like special countries in EU and AF) but it never happen for many months hence it create a lot of disappointment to my fellow Asian. And now we don't expect any more special cut off and we just expect maxing out, who know maybe, just maybe they finally put Nepal into special cut off when we don't expect it at all. Another 2 mystery months are coming guys so stay tune with the bumpy ride.

[SusieQQQ 11,585]

We just don't know what KCC will do. When we expect Nepal and Iran to put into special cut off (just like special countries in EU and AF) but it never happen for many months hence it create a lot of disappointment to my fellow Asian. And now we don't expect any more special cut off and we just expect maxing out, who know maybe, just maybe they finally put Nepal into special cut off when we don't expect it at all. Another 2 mystery months are coming guys so stay tune with the bumpy ride.

I don't recall Iran being in a special cut off last year? (Yet they still ran out of visas.)