Obllak[BANNED]

2 hours ago, Bh_sarah said:

It wasn't the tool outage. The tool outage happened way after I scanned. Other scanners got to the same result, only 3 approved. They just moved on from February.

Hi Sarah! Our results for yesterday's February 22: 5 RFE, 6 RFER, 13 approvals, 2 withdrawals 

10 hours ago, When_Will_It_End said:

@Obllak, I know you have already far and exceeded the call of duty, but if this NVC thing does become a concern, is there any chance you could start, when you have time, building a NVC version of your K1 sheet? I don't know if that's even possible and you seem much smarter on this stuff then me but just may be a valuable resource.

That was a plan! But few expressed their opinions that it would be a waste of time, since NVC process is rather short, so I set that plan aside. I would definitely love to do it if that would be something you guys would be interested in. But as Andi said, since it shouldn’t exceed 90 days, I am not sure how useful this information would be.

10 hours ago, fellaamazing said:

Hey. What does 8 Expedites(Denied: 8 ) mean?

I tried to expedite through my senator last year in July but they refused to expedite? Does it count as expedite deny in your numbers and doesn't affect the processing time or what?

It means that 8 asked for expedition and 8 of them were denied.

10 minutes ago, Obllak said:

February

April!!* Not February 🚀

57 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

Hello folks, is this month is at 80% now?

No, Februray 22 is 62% done

4 hours ago, meladee said:

I feel like we'll see April touched by the end of this week (but March 2022 is such a huge cohort that it's hard to say for certain!)

I think so too. I believe they will touch April this week and if not, definitely next week. When March entered "Hot Zone", February was on less than 50% done (as processed/terminated). If I remember correctly it was a bit less than 40% done. BUT, when February entered "Hot Zone", January was ~50% done. 

7 hours ago, jgray808 said:

Interesting apparent uptick in May cases that appear to pending.  Are those likely cases that have been expedited or is it possible that they're the whole way out that far with standard processing?  Seems like they're just all over the place with what is being processed.

This is a standard way of their processing. As you can see "Pending" numbers are decreasing sequentially with months. They just start touching cases, but not terminating them yet. 

6 minutes ago, AndiB said:

Is that 400?! In one day??? (i assume some are actually from yday but still)

 

I think I caught you editing it so fresh news but 

YEEEEESSS 🏋️‍♀️ and still pulling the data! (probably not getting big changes, because the code passed March 22, but still!)

10 hours ago, H&M2022 said:

Hello All 

 

i-129F - Sent on March 29th, 2023 

They picked up the package on April 1st, 2023

No NOA-1 yet

 

Haven't heard anything since. Is this normal? Every thread on here I see that everyone gets their NOA-1 within a few days. Kind of discouraging 

It can take around 40 days or so. Maybe even longer today, but I would definitely wait a bit longer. 

12 minutes ago, Elays said:

Yes I also noticed it, maybe some system problem?🤔 I hope tomorrow will be a better day🙏🏻

Very likely! We will see tomorrow what data shows  

2 hours ago, Lynxyonok said:

Hope you feel better - I'd post a "care" emoji" if one was available.

 

How are you handling "document was mailed" and "notice explaining USCIS actions was mailed" statuses? Seems like while most of those cases go into a death spiral, about 1 in 5 do come back, some even with approvals (although usually with an RFE). Thoughts?

 

Also, how are you catching cases being reopened?

These cases are in “Pending”. I personally don’t have any specific thoughts about it. Just one possible way of the processing outcome. Is there something specific you would like to know?

As far as “catching cases” goes, we are always scanning all cases and checking changes.

2 hours ago, Lynxyonok said:

An even further delay.

 

It's proving harder to wait.

What we have seen in the data is that most cases with status REFR are mostly processed rather quickly

Just now, jgray808 said:

Oh no, feel better!!  I love the data; gives me verifiable hope!  Thanks for sharing with all of us!

Thank you! It’s our pleasure 🧡

2 minutes ago, jgray808 said:

Excellent data!  How often is that updated?

Thank you! Daily. We usually do it ~11 CET time, but I am very sick since Sunday, so I am updating when I feel like I have a bit energy to use it for the update.

10 hours ago, Lynxyonok said:

 

That 50% does sound enticing.

 

It appears that USCIS is focusing on easier cases. I'm seeing their approval trough (the range where a case may get approved or denied) lengthen every week - it's now up to 4-5 months (an October 2021 case is as likely to be touched as a February 2022 one). Thus, the first wave of approvals is indeed riding into early February now - but there are many RFEs (1 in 3), and some of those even sit for 2+ months after the response... as if USCIS is merely riding out the time until the petitioner realizes what is up and withdraws the petition (too many withdrawals way past the expected approval timeframe).

 

I am guilty of having sent USCIS 2 letters of proof of additional evidence already (and I haven't been asked for any yet). I'm going to be guilty next month when I send one more (all 3 packets sent / to be sent after each new meeting with the beneficiary). Guess I'm just that terrified of a RFE or denial.

I have seen people making such big deal out of RFEs. RFE is no big deal, they just ask for extra stuff, and you just send it. Why are you terrified of it?

5 hours ago, Lynxyonok said:

So, I need to 'fess up.

 

I'm lost.

 

My VJ timeline (a mid-May-2022 filer) keeps shortening. It's now pointing to a second half of July 2022 for approval.

 

My dataset though, one comparing all unresolved cases, is pointing at a minimum of September 2022 approval for the first-wave May 2022 applicants; and the reason I say first-wave is because cases can take months and months to be touched.

 

Like X-files show said, I want to believe.

 

And I'd love to be wrong. However, for now, I can't comprehend the plethora (a fancy word for multitude, numerousness, or a large number of something) of RFEs issued (as that's got to slow down the case closure rate) and the resulting shortening of processing timelines (as I genuinely fail to see why, how, where).

 

I want to be proven wrong.

 

Because all I see for now is processing times lengthening much further, where VJ numbers are meaningless (please prove me wrong).

If USCIS keeps this speed, I would also estimate July 2022 for you. 

USCIS is showing an average 80% processing time *historically*. You should focus more on 50% imo and taking their speed into account to get a better presenting number. 

12 minutes ago, Bh_sarah said:

Only when I see a request received or approved, I don’t really take note of the denied ones. I’m not sure if the custom script has the option to see the case history/past actions, but CaseTracker overwrites them (so when one gets approved, I can’t know if it was expedited before). That’s why I take note of them.

Our database is collecting all past statuses and doesn't overwrite them, so you can let me know if you will want me to check anything specific  

13 hours ago, Oregonian97 said:

Plus we will probably get another 10 cases over the weekend. I am optimistic that we hit 1200/week in the near future. 

 

Also general question on the spread sheet tracker- for the estimate on remaining wait time, does it assume that the case that have already been rejected ahead of me are removed from the backlog? Or does it just look at the number of cases received ahead of my date? As I mentioned before, there is a good chunk rejected at the start when cases are submitted. Are these deducted from the backlog immediately? 

Just unprocessed cases are in the backlog

2 minutes ago, FromMexico W/Love said:

Stop being conservative lol. You know they will hit around 4,700. Also, side note, I think your estimated time is slightly too conservative.  

I know, I am afraid to give false hope to people 😂 

1 minute ago, Quimat said:

You make US happy!! Thank you for providing hope for us on a daily basis! It means so much! I going to have to give you a shout out on mine and fiancé’s wedding day 😂🥰❤️

I hope the wedding happens as soon as possible!!! ❤️

Just now, New Romantics said:

Yes, indeed yesterday was great!! Anyone else always keep the spreadsheet open on their browser? 😂

You guys make me so happy! 🥰 Yesterday was freaking amazing, whoop whoop!