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Chicagoseal

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    I-129f June 2017 filers (merged)

    in K-1 Fiance(e) Visa Case Filing and Progress Reports

    Posted · Edited by Chicagoseal
    Wrong Info

    21 hours ago, Birveonrty said:

    I had dreams that we receive NOA2 last week of October.... hahaha... that's the result of overthinking and depression... hehehe.. but i am still optimistic to have it this month or early November. May my dreams come true. 😚

    I want all you May and June filers to get approved ASAP, so that I, a July filer, can get a visa for my fiancée ASAP!!

    I-129f June 2017 filers (merged)

    in K-1 Fiance(e) Visa Case Filing and Progress Reports

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, DandY said:

    I don't think anyone understands the algorithm VJ uses, but from my analysis I believe it to be a VERY simple averaging of timelines rolling across a rolling multiple month averaging of reported adjudication periods. If I am correct, there is no negative impact from people not updating, there is just less data to go by and less data = less accurate.

     

    For those interested in my opinions (precious few I'm sure :P) on the math and have too much time on their hands, read on.

     

    It seems like the VJ algorithm is a rolling average og somewhere between 3 and 5 months from what I can tell in seat of the pants analysis. This explains why it did not react to a dramatic shift in timelines and it has been VERY slow to update our timelines constantly pushing them out every week as we were still being "polluted" by pre-April event timelines which resulted in overly optimistic predictions. I believe VJ predictions would have had the same problem when the unusual happened in the DACA slowdown. 

     

    I created an algorithm that understands a dramatic shift and historical trends. So, the way mine works is like this:

    1) The base is similar to what I think VJ's is (simple rolling average)--I use a 3 month period.

     

    2) A rolling 1 year timeline to determine typical trends (i.e. "historically, how much longer or shorter as a percentage is a given month compared to the previous month" ). It then factors this historical trend information into the prediction based upon the predicted average from step 1.

     

    3) It then looks at the rolling data for a dramatic shift (did a sample month shift 300% greater than was predicted by the calculations from step 1 and 2 above--e.g. if June is typically 10% longer than May, but all of a sudden June is 30% longer--the algorithm considers this a dramatic shift). 

     

    4) If a dramatic shift occurs it attempt to determine "T0" (the date the shift occurs)--it then throws out all data it uses for the averaging before the shift date. And only averages with post T0 data but still applies the trend information from step 2.

     

    My algorithm has the following deficiencies:

    1) It does not really "understand" different types of dramatic events. It assumes they all behave the same way and are largely able to be correlated to historical trends.

    2) Cannot predict a date AT ALL once a shift is detected until there is data available (for instance, if the algorithm predicts March filers should wait 90 days, but we get to 118 days, it pukes and says "oh #######, all bets are off, the world changed and there is no data to base a prediction on". It needs to wait for those March filers to get adjudicated before it can start predicting again.

    3) After a dramatic shift, it has a very small data set when it starts predicting again, so it will fluctuate too much for a bit once it starts predicting again. 

     

    For over a month, my algorithm has been predicting early June filers to be at an average of 152 days. I have been pretty confident in this calculation +/- a few days for awhile now because I thought the logic was mostly sound and unscientifically it "felt" right. However, I consider it now in question because it seems that the historical trends do not apply. If they did, we we be in the period of adjudication dates starting to get a little quicker. They are not. The trend line is still going up. I likely need to adjust the algorithm to additionally recognize when the historical trend lines are no longer valid. Problem is, if I do it on a simple prediction based upon the slope of the current timeline, it has just as much chance of being right, or being too pessimistic. For now, I'm thinking of possibly recognizing the event that the historical timeline is incorrect, then applying a weighting between the slope of the actual timeline and the historical timeline--but it is unlikely that will be any more accurate.

     

    Stay strong my brothers and sisters! :)

    Exactly what I thought, LOL.

    I-129f June 2017 filers (merged)

    in K-1 Fiance(e) Visa Case Filing and Progress Reports

    Posted

    2 hours ago, John & Rose said:

    \rant

     

    It is now official.  We are at the 4 month point in our wait.  The original estimate was a Sept 6 NOA2. Today it is Nov 6.  That is exactly a two month delay in 4 months.  If the numbers stay true we should anticipate the NOA 2 around Nov 21.  If it goes later it will be early December due to Thanksgiving.  So I anticipate that we will all be comfortably in the 180 day range within a month and who knows where it goes from there.

     

    /rant

    How does the lack of updating by people who stop visiting VJ affect the timelines? I know the timelines tend to be accurate for the most part, but was wondering how the results may be skewed.

    July 2017 I-129F Filers

    in K-1 Fiance(e) Visa Case Filing and Progress Reports

    Posted

    4 hours ago, DianaLucena said:

    Hi everyone! I applied for my K1 Visa on November of 2016 and it was approved on February of 2017. I'm here because I decided to record a video telling my k1 journey. I'm from Venezuela so the video is in Spanish. But hope I can at least help those Latin people in here :) 

     

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMjVrYoz3fs&t=14s

     

    Enjoy it!

    Gracias por compartir el vídeo.

    I129F April 2017 filers

    in K-1 Fiance(e) Visa Case Filing and Progress Reports

    Posted

    17 hours ago, MeliiGo said:

    Hi everyone! Today my fiance got our what apparently is a NOA2 WOOHOOO so happy!!!

     

    But it arrises so many questions?

    It says consulate mexico city, although for mexico Ive seen all the people going to Ciudad Juarez for the K1 VISA...

     

    We had a trip planned to see each other next weekend, should I cancel that trip? or is it okay to entry the country with a return ticket and a letter from my employer saying I need to return back?

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Screen Shot 2017-09-08 at 8.00.26 PM.png

    Felicidades.

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