DandY

Yes I know. My point is that there was very anti-immigration rhetoric during the campaign and 63 million voted for that--60,000 vs. 63 million, the odds are not in our favor! 
 
This is no surprise at all. No one should be surprised by what is going on. And @John & Rose if they didn't know what they were voting for, they are too irresponsible to vote--it was pretty clear if you only payed attention for 6 minutes.

Yes I know. My point is that there was very anti-immigration rhetoric during the campaign and 63 million voted for that--60,000 vs. 63 million, the odds are not in our favor! 
 
This is no surprise at all. No one should be surprised by what is going on. And @John & Rose if they didn't know what they were voting for, they are too irresponsible to vote--it was pretty clear if you only payed attention for 6 minutes.

63 million Americans voted for an anti-immigration policy, I don't think we have a voice compared to that.
 

Wow, that is the nicest way to say it. I thought of so many other ways to say it when I read the initial post--none this nice--and most more direct.
 

Wow, that is the nicest way to say it. I thought of so many other ways to say it when I read the initial post--none this nice--and most more direct.
 

I feel pretty good about the models because they seem to be correct. If not a little optimistic (just a wee bit thankfully).
 
Quite awhile ago I predicted 174-178 days average for early June filers--that model predicted that we would start seeing approvals for June days at 168 days as I have mentioned previously. We are pretty close to that. We are seeing June 5 today which is at 170 days and June 6 today which is at 169 days. Thanksgiving will put a bump into it, but all data indicates that 65-75% of us should come in under 180 days (take that my pessimist friend John [and cross your fingers just to be safe ]!).
 
The approvals for a day plot out to a rough bell curve with the bulk of them extending over a 10-12 day period with a bit of a leading edge and a very long trailing edge. I can discern nothing from the available data that would explain the long trailing edge--so I assume it has something to do with the nature of the petition.
 
So, the bright side is, we are in the home stretch of the first leg of the journey, then only 3 more legs to go! 
 
 
 
 
 

I used an immigration attorney because this process is so important I didn't want to have to worry about anything. I liked the fact that unlike a visa prep service, the attorney could act on my behalf. However, the more I've learned, I think the visa prep route is the way to go unless you have a really complicated case. So, I could have saved some money. Live and learn!
 
As is said a million times on here, the info exists to do it yourself and this petition is not nearly as important to anyone else as it is to you. Even given that truth, I would still find the prep service good piece of mind.

Brace yourself for this part--it is going to be frustrating and difficult. They DO NOT work the petitions in order. You have about an 85-90% chance (I have not done the full calculation) to see non-expedited petitions filed after yours approved before yours. You also have a decent chance to be approved before some that filed before you.
 
From my calculations, a general rule of thumb is approval within about 10 days when you see them really start touching your date or just after although keep in mind, some can take 24 or more days after that.

Does not imply that. There are 10 on that list after me, but I'm no more worried about an RFE than I ever was.
 

Brace yourself for this part--it is going to be frustrating and difficult. They DO NOT work the petitions in order. You have about an 85-90% chance (I have not done the full calculation) to see non-expedited petitions filed after yours approved before yours. You also have a decent chance to be approved before some that filed before you.
 
From my calculations, a general rule of thumb is approval within about 10 days when you see them really start touching your date or just after although keep in mind, some can take 24 or more days after that.

Does not imply that. There are 10 on that list after me, but I'm no more worried about an RFE than I ever was.
 

Congrats to those, but this is when you REALLY hate that they don't work them in order.

Not sure anyone would be prepared to submit and wait to submit because processing time is shorter. No matter what the total time would take longer if you waited.
 
But how we all long for the good ol' days. Even June filers were 90 days to NOA2 in recent years.

Congrats Elaine, you know who already told me. You guys gotta be excited. But still sorry you had to move wedding plans, hope it all works out.
 
For those new to the thread, Elaine was an expedite.

Got RFE on Mail on October 23, Sent RFE reply on October 26. Received by November 6. and FINALLY TODAY WE GOT APPROVED! That 2x2 picture consumed almost a month. Oh well. Let us focus on the good side. LIFE IS GOOD!

This was hypothesized over a month ago as a likely outcome by those that work in and around government (not me btw). About a month ago, it was very clear from volumes of petitions and the rate that they were being worked that early June would easily be over 170 days average very likely over 175 and quite likely over 180 which pushes the advertised response time window. There are many many May petitions over 180 now and with Thanksgiving, first few days of June is going to have the majority of petitions quite long. 
 
I did not want to believe the "use the RFE to buy time" hypothesis a month ago, but my gut was worried about it. However, it seems the data is starting to validate the hypothesis that they will keep the  average response time at or under 180 or so days this way.
 
The road has an end, just so many curves you can't see it or know how far away it is. 

This was hypothesized over a month ago as a likely outcome by those that work in and around government (not me btw). About a month ago, it was very clear from volumes of petitions and the rate that they were being worked that early June would easily be over 170 days average very likely over 175 and quite likely over 180 which pushes the advertised response time window. There are many many May petitions over 180 now and with Thanksgiving, first few days of June is going to have the majority of petitions quite long. 
 
I did not want to believe the "use the RFE to buy time" hypothesis a month ago, but my gut was worried about it. However, it seems the data is starting to validate the hypothesis that they will keep the  average response time at or under 180 or so days this way.
 
The road has an end, just so many curves you can't see it or know how far away it is. 

Wow to the biggest hypocrite I've ever seen in my life...

I'm saying that you didn't walk in our shoes. You were done in less than half the time we will experience (and I'm not sure how you inferred blame from a statement of fact). My point was, it is a bit pejorative to tell us the "process will fly". Had you experienced 9+ months for the entire process, you could speak with some authority. I can tell you with some authority having talked to many going through this now that the the emotional toll of the process is not linear, it is exponential. 8 months is considerably more than twice as difficult as 4 months.

Quite easy to say for someone whose ENTIRE K1 process took less than half of what it is taking now.

Quite easy to say for someone whose ENTIRE K1 process took less than half of what it is taking now.

Quite easy to say for someone whose ENTIRE K1 process took less than half of what it is taking now.

He has been concurring with him for awhile.
 
That was an attempt to ridicule me.
 
He has essentially said previously that I was too stupid to know anything and that he could do better math in his sleep than I'd ever be able to do though he has never demonstrated that--I'm still waiting for his approach and results.
 
Naes claimed I was defensive because I was sick of childish attacks like this and preferred not to participate. I've never seen anyone attack the VJ calculations even they there were so bad, but Naes asked me to prove mine as if I was interviewing for a job (his example, not mine). Just like VJ, I posted mine for fun and information based upon calculations from a specific approach. I've had 3 different approaches and described them each time.
 
So even though I have withdrawn for the discussion of predicting average wait times, it seems that I am still the fodder for acrimonious jabs. I'm not sure how posting an approach and results has led to so much animosity, so that is why I stopped.
 
If it makes them feel like big men to keep ridiculing me, then I guess I'm glad I can help them feel good about themselves.
 
As an interesting aside, VJs predictions for early June are up to 168 days now.

He has been concurring with him for awhile.
 
That was an attempt to ridicule me.
 
He has essentially said previously that I was too stupid to know anything and that he could do better math in his sleep than I'd ever be able to do though he has never demonstrated that--I'm still waiting for his approach and results.
 
Naes claimed I was defensive because I was sick of childish attacks like this and preferred not to participate. I've never seen anyone attack the VJ calculations even they there were so bad, but Naes asked me to prove mine as if I was interviewing for a job (his example, not mine). Just like VJ, I posted mine for fun and information based upon calculations from a specific approach. I've had 3 different approaches and described them each time.
 
So even though I have withdrawn for the discussion of predicting average wait times, it seems that I am still the fodder for acrimonious jabs. I'm not sure how posting an approach and results has led to so much animosity, so that is why I stopped.
 
If it makes them feel like big men to keep ridiculing me, then I guess I'm glad I can help them feel good about themselves.
 
As an interesting aside, VJs predictions for early June are up to 168 days now.

First, I think I was incorrect, I assumed that an IP block was tied to TOS, but you are correct, I cannot find that. So I guess it is a simple DOS attack prevention. 
 
Secondly, I only developed an algorithm because the VJ one was so poor at predicting our dates--it just kept sliding and sliding, and I saw no one else posting that had tried to "build a better mousetrap". So I grabbed Fiddler to capture the request and response to USCIS site so I could mimic that and get my snapshots, then I wrote an algorithm. Mostly out of intellectual curiosity. I decided to share my results here because I thought others might be interested. I posted this without warranty expressed or implied and only defended the numbers in advocating that some thought and logic had gone into the algorithm (and I have given conceptual level info for the algorithm). I am not trying for a job interview. Don't believe me. I don't care.
 
Since I was incorrect in my assumption that others would be interested and it seems this is quite unwelcome--I will no longer post the results of my calculations or my opinions on the estimated wait time. Hopefully this will ease tensions in the forum. Everyone believe what they want and lets call it good.
 
Since you asked Naes, I'll answer your question quickly, then I will speak of it no more.
 
I'm not using the term "snapshot" meaning VM snapshot or snapshot vs. full backup, there are other definitions of the term and I'm using it with this definition:
- a record of the contents of a storage location or data file at a given time.
 
Because my algorithm relies heavily on trend information, I need months worth of data. So I have to have multiple snapshots for the same data set to build average wait and trend information along with calculating the backlog size and average worked per week. Because I need data across over 4 months, I am not pulling full month data sets like you. I'm a pulling data sets for smaller ranges of dates over a longer period and extrapolating. This lets me calculate not just the average wait time across the data, but the trend line which I use for predicting.
 
The downside of this is the until the trend line changes direction, I keep projecting out based upon the current trend line weighted primarily by backlog size and the trend line of average batches worked per week. That is why I was overlaying it with the historical trend line assuming the the "down turn" would happen in about the same place chronologically. This was a false assumption and led to overly optimistic predictions (like my algorithm was predicting high 150s for us 2 months ago because historically it is usually getting shorter in September and October, but that didn't happen this year so I adjusted the algorithm to almost completely ignore historical trend lines--I'm giving that only 10% of the weight it had in my initial algorithm). One other interesting adjustment to make might be calculating the standard deviation as it seem they work about 75% or so of a month (I have not calculated, SWAG for illustration purposed) then move to the next month, thus the average wait time is skewed a little high, given this pattern. 
 
So there is the conceptual level of how it works. If you want to write you own with my approach or develop a different approach have at it, I'd love to see your results. But I'm not discussing this anymore.